NFL Week 15 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
This week we have an NFL three-game slate on Saturday. The first matchup is between the Indianapolis Colts with the Minnesota Vikings. Thr second game is an AFC North battle between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns. To end the day, we see two more division rivals faceoff when the Miami Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills. Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let’s take a look.
All props are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Colts First TD Scorer: Jonathan Taylor (+190)
The Indianapolis offense is led by the superstar running back. Despite missing three games this season, Taylor still leads the team in total touchdowns with four. More importantly, the Colts have emphasized the running game since Jeff Saturday took over as the interim head coach. In their four games with Saturday coaching, the first Indianapolis touchdown has been a running score three times. Two of those three touchdowns were by Taylor. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against the Vikings has been a rushing score in over half of the games this season.
Vikings First TD Scorer: Dalvin Cook (+240)
Last week the Vikings couldn’t get their running game going against the Detroit Lions, totaling only 22 yards on 17 rushing attempts. However, the matchup this week against the Colts is much easier. Indianapolis has surrendered the 12th-most rushing yards to running backs this season. More importantly, they have given up 13 touchdowns to the position, including six rushing scores over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, Cook has scored the first Minnesota touchdown in 23.1% of the games this season, including two straight contests.
Anytime TD Scorer: Justin Jefferson (-155)
Minnesota’s passing attack has gone to a new level this year because of Jefferson. The former LSU star leads the league in receiving yards with 1,500. Furthermore, he is 11th in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns. More importantly, Jefferson has scored a touchdown in four of the past six contests. While he didn’t find the end zone last week, the superstar receiver had a career-high 223 receiving yards against Detroit. Meanwhile, the Colts surrendered three touchdowns to the Dallas Cowboys wide receivers in their last game.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Ravens First TD Scorer: Demarcus Robinson (+850)
Robinson has 27 targets over the past four weeks, seeing six or more in three contests. By comparison, Devin Duvernay has 13 targets during that span, seeing one or fewer twice. While the veteran hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2, that could easily change this week. The Browns have surrendered 15 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the fifth-most in the league. Furthermore, they have given up nine touchdowns to the position over their past six games. More importantly, the first touchdown Cleveland has surrendered in their past four games went to a wide receiver.
Browns First TD Scorer: Nick Chubb (+200)
Over the first half of the year, Chubb was unstoppable. He averaged 105.1 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game over the first eight weeks. However, his rushing total has cooled off lately, but the star running back has had two touchdowns since the bye week. More importantly, Chubb scored the first Cleveland touchdown against the Ravens in the Week 7 matchup. Meanwhile, the Ravens have held their opponent without a touchdown in two of the past four games. In the other two games, the first touchdown scored against them was by a running back.
Anytime TD Scorer: J.K. Dobbins (+185)
After missing the previous six games with a knee injury, Dobbins returned last week and destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers. The third-year running back had 120 rushing yards and a touchdown in the win, averaging eight yards per rushing attempt. More importantly, he has scored a touchdown once per 18.7 touches this season. Meanwhile, the Browns have surrendered 17 touchdowns to running backs this season, the second-most in the NFL. While Dobbins didn’t play in the Week 7 matchup, Gus Edwards had two touchdowns in his first game back from a torn ACL despite playing only 36% of the snaps.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Dolphins First TD Scorer: Raheem Mostert (+310)
The latest weather report for Buffalo on Saturday night calls for snow and wind, so expect both teams to focus on the running game. In the Week 3 matchup between these two teams, the first Miami touchdown was a run by Chase Edmonds. However, he is no longer with the team, and Mostert is now the starter. The veteran has two rushing touchdowns in his past four games despite averaging only 8.8 rushing attempts per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Bills have surrendered 11 touchdowns to running backs this season, with six coming as the first score of the game for their opponent.
Bills First TD Scorer: Josh Allen (+475)
When the weather is an issue or the Bills face a tough defense, they tend to lean on Allen’s legs. Over the past three weeks, the superstar quarterback has two rushing touchdowns, including last week against the New York Jets. More importantly, he has six rushing touchdowns this season, the most on the team. Meanwhile, opposing teams have scored a rushing touchdown as their first score of the game against the Dolphins in nearly a third of the games this season. With Buffalo lacking a featured workload running back on the roster, don’t be surprised if Allen has a season-high in rushing attempts this week.
Anytime TD Scorer: Stefon Diggs (-120)
There are only two players in the NFL with more receiving touchdowns than Diggs this season: Davante Adams and Travis Kelce. The Buffalo receiver leads the team with 10 touchdowns, four more than any other player. Furthermore, the 10 receiving scores match his career-high from last year with four games still remaining. While Diggs didn’t find the end zone last week, he scored a touchdown in the three previous contests. Meanwhile, Miami has surrendered nine touchdowns to wide receivers this season, including the first Los Angeles touchdown of the game last week to Mike Williams.
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