NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Saturday (excludes the Saturday night game).
Below are my year-to-date results (assuming one unit per prop):
| Week | Units | ROI | Record |
| YTD | -4.3 | -3.2% | 51 – 83 |
| 4 | +0.6 | 5.2% | 5 – 7 |
| 5 | +5.8 | 44.6% | 4 – 9 |
| 6 | -7.0 | -63.6% | 2 – 9 |
| 7 | +2.0 | 17.8% | 6 – 5 |
| 8 | +0.4 | 3.0% | 6 – 6 |
| 9 | +1.6 | 15.8% | 5 – 5 |
| 10 | +2.5 | 22.4% | 5 – 6 |
| 11 | -0.6 | -5.7% | 4 – 7 |
| 12 | -1.0 | -9.4% | 4 – 7 |
| 13 | -1.3 | -10.8% | 4 – 8 |
| 14 | +0.3 | 2.7% | 5 – 5 |
| 15 | -7.4 | -73.5% | 1 – 9 |
NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
- Tyler Huntley
- Anytime TD Odds: +260 FanDuel
Huntley draws the start again in place of injured QB Lamar Jackson. He has played poorly the last three weeks and the Ravens’ offense has only scored 29 points across those three games. Despite this, the Ravens have gone 2-1 in that span and now get a matchup against a rookie-led Falcons team who have lost three straight. The Ravens should be able to stick to a run-heavy game plan and we have seen Huntley run the ball 25 times in the last three weeks. Atlanta has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (171.2) over the last six weeks, so Huntley should have an opportunity to score on the ground this week.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
- Josh Allen
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 BetMGM
The game total has dropped by more than an FG, which indicates there will be a significant weather impact in Chicago. Josh Allen has averaged close to 10 rushes per game and already has six rushing TDs on the season. Both teams will likely lean more on the run game than usual this week and Allen is always a threat to run it himself in the red zone. The Bears gave up three rushing TDs to Jalen Hurts last week.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
- Jamaal Williams
- Anytime TD Odds: +135 FanDuel
Williams leads the league in rushing TDs (14) by one over QB Jalen Hurts and two over Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. He has an opportunity to extend his lead against the Panthers who allowed rushing TDs to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren last week. Williams hasn’t scored in the last two weeks after a streak of four straight games, but he still had two carries inside the five. He should be able to convert one of those carries if he gets the chance this week.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
- Alvin Kamara
- Anytime TD Odds: +200 BetMGM
The 32-point total in this game tells us that there won’t be much passing. The weather impact will keep both teams on the ground for most of the game so that means Chubb and Kamara are in for a big workload. Kamara has longer odds than Chubb (-110) and Kamara had 21 carries last week with Ingram out. He should see that volume again against a Browns defense that has allowed the second most rushing TDs to RBs (14) this season.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
- Joe Mixon
- Anytime TD Odds: +110 BetMGM
Mixon has had 16 touches in each of the two games since returning from injury. He has not found the end zone, but Mixon ranks fifth in the NFL with eight opportunities in the red zone over the last two weeks. He gets a difficult matchup on paper against the Patriots, who have only allowed three TDs to RBs on the ground this season (1st in the NFL). Mixon’s workload should help him overcome the matchup as 3-point favorites on the road.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
- Daniel Bellinger
- Anytime TD Odds: +340 BetMGM
We don’t have any weather concerns in this matchup as the Giants and Vikings will have perfect conditions in the dome. The total is one of the highest on the week, (48.5) so there should be some much needed scoring in a week of low totals. Bellinger seems to be a good long shot to take a chance on. He played 98% of the snaps last week, but only had one catch on four targets. He had two TDs on the season before a freak eye injury caused him to miss four games mid-season. He is back fully involved in the Giants’ offense and should have a good opportunity to find the end zone at long odds.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
- DK Metcalf
- Anytime TD Odds: +145 DraftKings
Metcalf will be the clear top target this week with Tyler Lockett out. Even with Lockett in the lineup, Metcalf has seen 10 targets a game (6th in NFL) over the last five games. He also leads the league in end zone targets (18) on the season. The matchup against the Chiefs is also enticing. The Chiefs have allowed the most TDs (19) to WRs this season so Metcalf will have plenty of opportunity to score for the third time in the last four games.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
- Malik Willis
- Anytime TD Odds: +330 FanDuel
With Ryan Tannehill out, the odds of any of the Titans’ pass catchers paying off this week are low. Willis averaged 13 passing attempts across his two starts earlier this year and that likely won’t change against the Texans. Derrick Henry is the easy choice and his recent box scores against the Texans are well-documented. Instead of taking the short odds with Henry, I’ll take a chance that Willis, who ran the ball 13 times for 52 yards in his two starts, can steal one from Henry.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
- Terry McLaurin
- Anytime TD Odds: +290 BetMGM
The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (74.5) and yards per carry allowed (3.7). If the Commanders are going to move the ball in this matchup it will likely be through the air. Over the last six weeks, the 49ers’ secondary has allowed the seventh most receiving yards per game (173.0) to opposing WRs. McLaurin will be the beneficiary if the Commanders have success through the air. He leads the team in red zone targets and is averaging eight targets per game over the last half of the season. We are getting longer odds than usual due to the matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
- Dalton Schultz
- Anytime TD Odds: +275 DraftKings
Schultz is second in the NFL in end zone targets (6) since Week 10. He has three receiving TDs during that span and is averaging over six targets per game. The matchup is difficult against the Eagles, but the Cowboys should be able to control the ball without Jalen Hurts playing on the other side. The Cowboys have the third-highest team total (25.5), so Vegas expects them to be able to score some TDs this week against an Eagles defense that is only allowing 19.1 ppg on the season (6th fewest in the NFL).
(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)
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