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NFL Week 16 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 16 edition of the NFL Betting Primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros.com. I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate.

Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive same-game parlays (SGP).

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 16 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks.

Below you will find my top picks for Week 16’s Sunday afternoon slate only. Note that the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football matchups will have their own dedicated articles.

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NFL Week 16 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

Top Underdogs:

Top Totals:

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 16 games.
  • The Browns have lost 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Browns are 7-12-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 road appearances as underdogs and 6-4 as home underdogs (5-3 over the last eight games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-6 on the Moneyline at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last seven home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 13 of their last 14 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in nine of the Browns' last 10 games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games.
  • The Bengals are 10-8-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-8 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have won 14 of their last 22 home games.
  • Cincy is 17-7 ATS on the road (71%).
  • The Bengals are 12-4 as road favorites ATS (74%).
  • The Bengals have scored first in eight road games.
  • Joe Burrow is 20-11 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have won each of their last seven road games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Browns are 4-3 toward the over in their last seven games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback. He was 2-1 toward the over on the road. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is starting in Week 16.
  • Eight of the Browns' last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns’ last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns’ last 17 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 17-14-1 toward the over in their last 32 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12 and Week 13 - two of which were division home matchups).
  • The Browns are 3-4 toward the over at home (42.2 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 11-5 toward the under at home.
  • 10 of the Bengals’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 11 of the Bengals’ last 15 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 15 of the Bengals’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bengals' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Cincy is 6-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging north of 62 points per game.
  • Eight of the Bengals’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This week's matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals presents a significant change in dynamics for the Browns, as Jameis Winston could be benched after a lackluster performance against the Chiefs. Dorian Thompson-Robinson would take over as the starting quarterback.

This potential quarterback switch has influenced betting lines considerably, with the Bengals now favored between 7.5 to 9 points. The total has also seen a notable adjustment, dropping from 49.5 to 46.5 points. This reflects concerns over the Browns’ offensive capabilities under Thompson-Robinson, as well as the likelihood of increased scoring opportunities for both teams under Winston’s error-prone style.

Note that Jerry Jeudy caught zero passes from Thompson-Robinson in his limited game action earlier this year versus the Bengals. In Thompson-Robinson’s three starts, no Browns receiver surpassed 60 receiving yards. He didn’t throw for more than 160 yards in any contest. David Njoku was his leading receiver in two of those starts, and he projects as a longshot to play in Week 16.

The Bengals, meanwhile, continue to thrive against less formidable opponents. They have been favorites 11 times this season, including eight times by more than a field goal, boasting a strong 6-2 record against the spread during a six-game win streak. Interestingly, the Bengals have only managed to cover - and win outright - in games where they were favored by at least four points.

The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record (11 of last 12).

Despite this trend of dominance when favored, Joe Burrow's historical performance within the AFC North poses a slight reservation; he holds an 8-14 record against division opponents, compared to a much stronger 27-16-1 in non-divisional contests.

The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against AFC North opponents.

Nevertheless, the Bengals did manage to cover against the Browns earlier this season on the road with a 21-14 victory, with the total staying under 42.5 points.

Burrow's success this season might not be hampered by the Browns' defense, which has been inconsistent and particularly vulnerable on the road. Known for conceding explosive plays, Cleveland's defense might struggle to contain the Bengals’ offensive threats.

As for Thompson-Robinson, his role as a potential “X” factor is tempered by his poor track record. In limited starts, he's 1-2 ATS with a concerning 1-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His performances have included two losses by margins of 17 or more points. His lone ATS cover came in a tight 13-10 game victory against a Steelers team led by Kenny Pickett. In his brief appearance against the Bengals earlier this season, Thompson-Robinson was intercepted twice, although he did add 44 rushing yards.

The Browns have lost each of their last six road games and haven't played well. If this weren't a divisional game, this would be an easy spot to back Cincy laying a touchdown-plus. But it's ultimately where I settle on this game given the potential major downgrade at quarterback for the Browns. As mentioned in the notes above, the Browns haven't hit their team total other than against Denver and in home divisional games.

The only way I can see the Browns beating us here is if the team goes to Winston in the second half (note that he is also on the injury report with a shoulder injury). Take the Bengals -4.5 in the first half to avoid that potential pitfall.

I'm going to shy away from a play on the total for fear the Bengals’ offense puts a 40-burger on the Browns' defense. The Bengals’ defense is bad, but Cincy games have gone under the total against offenses like Dallas, Cleveland, New York and New England. The bad teams.

Props:

Eleven of the last 12 tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their receptions prop.

The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season. Tanner Hudson is listed as the highest +EV bet in this week’s Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Report. However, he is dealing with a knee injury.

Over the last two weeks, the Bengals have allowed over 115 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

Tee Higgins has 69-plus receiving yards in six of his last seven games.

Chase Brown is on a six-game streak of 90-plus yards from scrimmage. According to Next Gen Stats,  Brown has played 85.3% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps since Week 10. Brown has been productive in the passing game, generating the third-most receiving yards over expected (+76) and the most receptions for first downs (12) by any running back in that span (Weeks 10-15).

My Picks:

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The New York Giants are 13-9 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-14 ATS as road underdogs.
  • Opponents have scored first in five of the Giants’ last six road games.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last eight home games.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Giants are 10-12 ATS over their last 22 games.
  • The Giants were the sixth-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They are 2-6 ATS at home this season.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
  • In each of the Giants’ last nine games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • In five of the Giants’ last six games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Giants' last 11 games.
  • The Giants are 13-9-1 at home ATS and 10-7-1 ATS as home underdogs.
  • New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
  • The Falcons are 11-18-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing 8-7 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 on the Moneyline as home favorites (15-10 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 6-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
  • Opponents have scored first in seven of the Falcons’ last nine games.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons’ last 26 games.
  • The Falcons are 6-8 ATS on the road, 4-5 ATS as road favorites and 7-15 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 13 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 10-5 as home favorites on the Moneyline.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Giants' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 10-13 toward the over in their last 23 games.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in nine of their last 20 games.
  • Eight of the Giants’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 16).
  • Twelve of the Giants’ last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons are 5-9 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-5 O/U at home, averaging UNDER 44.5 points per game.
  • Atlanta is 3-4 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging under 50 points.
  • Twelve of the Falcons’ last 15 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Kirk Cousins era is over. First-round rookie draft pick Michael Penix Jr. will make his first NFL start at home versus the New York Giants as a touchdown-plus favorite.

The line has moved heavily in favor of the Giants after it was announced the rookie quarterback would be under center. Makes sense, given that Penix is a rookie quarterback making his first start. But this couldn't be a better spot for him.

And the market has been very spot-on with the rookie quarterbacks in favorable spots this season. Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels have combined for a 16-4 record ATS as favorites this season.

I like Penix and I think his arm talent can expose a Giants’ defense ranked dead last in expected points added (EPA) per target allowed on passes of 20-plus air yards. After Darnell Mooney went catchless last week in a bad matchup, you better believe this offense is going to be licking their chops to take downfield shots with their rookie signal-caller in front of the home crowd. Ten of the last 10 wideouts most comparable to Mooney have gone OVER their receiving yards prop versus the Giants.

I like the Falcons’ offense in this spot to dominate both through the air and on the ground.

According to Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has forced 92 missed tackles this season, the most among running backs, including 74 missed tackles on rush attempts, the third-most among running backs.

As a result, Robinson has generated +126 rushing yards over expected, the 11th-most among running backs. The Giants have missed 14.2% of their tackle attempts this season, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. They have allowed 978 yards due to missed tackles, the most among teams entering Week 16.

Robinson has three straight games of over 88.5 rushing yards (four of the last five).

The overarching takeaway from this game will be, "What if the Falcons had turned to Penix sooner?" Things will likely get overblown after one week, but we will use that to our advantage for Week 17.

Meanwhile, the Giants have lost each of their last nine games. Drew Lock will be back under center after Tommy DeVito got hurt again. The last we saw of Lock came against the Saints at home, where they should have won.

Lock completed just 21-of-49 passes for 227 yards and an interception, along with 59 rushing yards on five carries. He was 6-for-19 passing in the first half for 52 yards. Consider it a miracle he got 200-plus passing yards.

Even so, he is the best option left among Giants quarterbacks. And the Falcons’ defense has played better since coming out of their bye.

New York road games have a slightly higher chance of going over the total, compared to ones played at MetLife Stadium. But Drew Lock against a rookie quarterback in a run-heavy offense screams under on the game total. Falcons' home games tend to lean under the total (also the new quarterback factor) and the Giants' offense should inspire nobody.

Props:

Malik Nabers has gone over 70.5 receiving yards twice in his last six games, with his two highest games at 79 and 82 receiving yards, respectively.

Tyrone Tracy Led the team in carries with 10 attempts for 31 yards (3.1 yards per carry), including a long rush of 12 yards. He had nine carries in the first half.

Devin Singletary rushed eight times for 25 yards (3.1 yards per carry) and scored one rushing touchdown, with a long run of five yards. It was a back-breaking vulture score. Singletary also added three catches on three targets for 16 yards, with a long of eight yards. Tracy caught one pass on four targets for four yards.

Tracy still dominated the snaps over Singletary - 68% to 34% - but fantasy managers cannot afford to lose any opportunities for offensive Giants players. Singletary earning goal-line work is not good. Even so, I like the matchup for the rookie running back.

All but two running backs to face the Falcons have gone OVER their rushing yardage prop this season (70-plus rushing yards in all but two games).

However, with Lock under center, expect Tracy to get fed with dump-offs. The only way Lock was able to move the ball was through quick passes.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 15 of their last 21 games.
  • The Lions are 23-11 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 19-9 ATS over their last 28 games (70%). When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won 11 of their last 12 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 14 of their last 19 games.
  • The Lions have won 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 16 of their last 18 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last 10 games following a loss.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Lions.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 14 of the Bears’ last 19 games.
  • The Bears are 12-9-1 ATS and 10-12 straight up in their last 22 games.
  • Opponents have scored first in 13 of the Bears’ last 14 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last eight road games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last nine road games.
  • The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS as road underdogs and 6-14-1 ATS overall on the road.
  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • In 13 of the Bears' last 14 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.

Totals:

  • The Lions' last three road games have gone under the total.
  • Sixteen of the Lions' last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 27 home games has been 55.7 points; 74% (20/27) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Ten of the Lions' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Lions’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bears’ last seven games against NFC North opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bears’ last 14 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bears’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bears are 13-6-1 under the point total in their last 19 games.
  • The Bears are 3-3 O/U at home, but those games are averaging just 41 points per game.

Overall:

The Lions can't catch a break. The team has been decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and just recently had to place star running back David Montgomery on injured reserve (IR). Although there is a chance he can return during the postseason.

And now they have to go on the road to take on a divisional opponent, playing outdoors for just the second time all season. You can see where this could go wrong for Detroit. We know Jared Goff is an indoor cat, and sub-freezing temperatures with a slight chance of rain aren't an ideal spot for him to perform at his highest level. Especially with Detroit's defense in such bad shape, putting their offense in a tougher position to score on every drive.

Case in point, the Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Lions. That includes a few weeks back on Thanksgiving when they rallied back from a major first-half deficit.

And that game was played in Detroit, where the Bears have had little to no success. But at home this season, the Bears are winners of eight of their last 11. They are 4-3 straight up at home, and 5-1 ATS.

The Bears have been far from a functional team this season. But they have played substantially better at home. Both the Vikings and Packers home games went down to the wire. Chicago covered and had a chance to win both games outright.

Their defense should be able to get after Jared Goff under less-than-pristine conditions. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears’ defense has generated the highest pressure rate (40.8%) in the NFL since their Week 7 bye, up 7% from their pressure rate through the first six weeks of the season.

However, the Bears have converted just 14% of their pressures into sacks since Week 8, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

I would expect nothing less than something similar against the Lions in another home divisional matchup. Detroit finds a way to win, but the Bears more than cover the 6.5-point spread.

I think this game could get dragged through the mud as a divisional rematch. A 48-point game total for a Bears home game in December is ludicrous. It's the same game total when these teams played in Detroit. That game went under.

Eleven of the Bears’ last 14 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line. The Lions' last three road games have gone under the total.

I thought backing the Bears +6.5 would be my best bet in this game, but I don't think you even need to sweat the sides.

Slam the game total under 48 points.

The only points I'd lay with Detroit would be in the first half at -3.5. The Bears offense starts out sluggish and we followed the same process to success on Monday Night Football with the Vikings. This also gives you an opportunity to live bet and double down on Chicago mounting a comeback when they spot the Lions points to start the game.

Props:

I am taking the under on Jared Goff’s 252.5 passing yards projection. He is 50% at this number in all his road games this season. He failed to hit over 222 yards the last time he played against the Bears at home. In his lone game outdoors this season, he passed for under 150 yards.

The Lions give up a ton of passing volume to opposing wide receivers. DJ Moore has at least six catches in five straight games since Thomas Brown took over the offense.

The last time the Bears played the Lions, Moore led the receiving corps with a dominant performance, catching eight of his 16 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown.

The Lions have been a bottom-five defense against slot receivers. Keenan Allen was also a major factor when these teams last played, catching five of his eight targets for 73 yards and scoring two touchdowns, including one on his lone red-zone target. Allen earned a 21% target share and accounted for over 100 air yards.

Last week, the Bears' receiving attack was led by Allen, who was targeted 13 times, recording six catches for 82 yards and one touchdown (one of the three red-zone targets), with a long reception of 26 yards. Allen dominated the Bears' offense in terms of air yards, registering 142 air yards, with a 42% target share and a solid average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.92.

Allen has gone over 54.5 yards in three of his last four games.

Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for at least 69 yards in six of his last seven games against teams other than the Green Bay Packers. The Bears have allowed 12 of the last 13 backs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop.

Per Next Gen Stats, Gibbs has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on just 40% of his carries outside the tackles this season, second-lowest among running backs (minimum of 50 carries).

Gibbs has recorded 2.4 yards before contact per carry on such carries (third-most) in part due to his 11.83 miles per hour (MPH) speed at the line of scrimmage (fourth-fastest). The Bears’ defense has contacted opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on 43.0% of carries outside the tackles this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. The Bears have allowed +141 rushing yards over expected (seventh-most) and 1.5 yards before contact per carry (sixth-most) to running backs on such runs this season.

Gibbs' rushing prop line is huge this week at 92.5 yards, a number he has hit five times in his career. He had 87 rushing yards in his first matchup versus the Bears.

I don't love the value of it given Gibbs doesn't need a ton of volume to rip off big plays. Instead, I like attacking his receiving props. Montgomery played a massive role as a receiver in the Lions’ offense this season (ninth among running backs in receiving yards), going for 31-plus yards in half of his games. We should see Gibbs take a larger share of the receiving pie to go along with the rushing.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 road games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13 in 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games. They have dropped three games in a row (two to the Seahawks). And that's despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except their last two losses when they opened with leads).
  • The Cardinals have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • In each of the Cardinals' last five games as home favorites, the first score has been a Cardinals Touchdown.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Panthers’ last six games.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 19 of their last 24 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 19 of their last 22 games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (4-9-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals' road games have totaled 52, 57, 47 and 55 points. However, two of the last three road games have been unders.
  • They are "only" 2-3-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 5-1 record toward the over.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals’ last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line (4-4 O/U) this season, averaging 43 points per game.
  • Four of the Cardinals’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals’ last 14 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers’ last six games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line (6-1 overall record to the over and 48.5 points per game).
  • Nine of the Panthers' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Panthers' last 15 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I love this matchup for many reasons. I was high on both Arizona and Carolina during the preseason, and I've enjoyed their moments of success throughout 2024.

The Cardinals made easy work of the Patriots at home last week, and I don't even think they played particularly well. Even so, they scored 30 points and were up 30-10 before a garbage-time Patriots touchdown with less than two minutes remaining.

Arizona ran the ball effectively and that's all it takes for them to overwhelm their opponents. After last week, the Cardinals are now 8-2 ATS when they rush for at least 100 yards this season.

And when they drop back to throw with Kyler Murray, I am expecting him to find success. According to Next Gen Stats, the Panthers generated only five pressures in Week 15, their fourth game with five or fewer pressures this season, the most such games in the NFL.

They are one of three teams to generate five or fewer pressures four times in a season since 2018, joining the 2022 Bears and 2018 Raiders, whom each had four such games. Overall, the Panthers have generated pressure on just 26% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL and the third-lowest rate by a team since 2018.

Defensively, they should present some problems for Bryce Young, who came crashing back down to Earth versus Dallas. Arizona's pass defense has allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in seven straight games.

But does that mean the Panthers are sunk against the spread? I don't think so. I don't want to jump off the Young bandwagon immediately after he failed to win his first game as a favorite. It was all green lights before that.

Three straight games down to the wire. Overall, they are 5-1 ATS in the past six weeks.

And the major difference between the Cardinals/Cowboys defenses is the pass rush. Dallas ranks second. Arizona ranks 26th.

And that leads me to my favorite play in this game. The game total over.

Carolina has been the home to overs this season (6-1 O/U) - including six straight with a 48.5 average; 47.5 points is too small of a number. Points won't be coming in short supply this weekend in Carolina.

Props:

Trey McBride was Murray’s primary target in Week 15, finishing with nine catches on 10 targets for 87 yards. McBride, the team’s top tight end, played a significant role, seeing 57 air yards (35% of the team’s total), with a target share of 32%. But as usual, he also failed to score.

The broadcast made sure to let the audience know about McBride’s scoring drought, and the team did its best to get him a quick, easy touchdown on a shovel pass at the goal line. McBridge got stuffed. According to Next Gen Stats, McBride has the most receptions (86) and most receiving yards (963) in a season without a touchdown.

But the Panthers are next - they have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. Now or never. Regression is coming. It’s McBride touchdown time.

Like last week, I want all the McBride touchdown action this week. He has +900 odds to score the first touchdown TD. McBride to score two touchdowns is +900 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Depending on what action you can get down on sportsbooks, you can also bet on him to score three or more touchdowns - +6000 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Cardinals have played with a loaded box on just 34.3% of defensive snaps this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

Opposing running backs have averaged 4.6 yards per carry on such snaps against the Cardinals, right in line with the NFL average (4.6), but they have also recorded a 47.3% success rate on such runs, the highest rate in the NFL.

Chuba Hubbard has averaged 5.4 yards per carry when running with a blocking advantage this season, seventh-most in the NFL. He has recorded more yards than expected on 53.1% of his carries, the highest rate among running backs with at least 50 carries.

After Hubbard bombed last week versus Dallas, he should run effectively versus the Cardinals' light fronts.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 22 of the Colts’ last 26 games.
  • The Colts are 2-2 ATS as favorites this season
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts are 6-4 ATS as an underdog (3-7 overall).
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last nine road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Titans have lost 15 of their last 18 road games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-11-1 ATS.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 14 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites. They are 3-8 ATS as home favorites (28%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 18 games.
  • The Titans are 6-10 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 15 games at Nissan Stadium.

Totals:

  • Seven of the last 10 Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Colts’ last 16 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Anthony Richardson-led offenses have scored more than 10 points in the first half (12 starts) only six times, with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at quarterback this season, the Colts are 3-5-1 toward the over this season (2-5-1 toward the over in the last eight games).
  • The Colts have scored last in seven of their last nine games.
  • With Joe Flacco: 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 5-3-1 toward the under in their last seven games.
  • Four of the Titans' last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 16-14-1 toward the under in their last 31 games.
  • Tennessee is 2-4-1 O/U at home this season, averaging 35.2 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Titans’ last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

We have another rematch in Week 16 between AFC South teams. The Colts beat the Titans as road underdogs back in Week 6 by a score of 20-17 with Joe Flacco leading the charge. Will Levis started for the Titans and threw for 95 yards. He has since been benched in favor of ex-Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph.

It's somewhat of a reversal matchup given Tennessee is trotting out the veteran backup, while the Colts are playing their volatile second-year quarterback. Rudolph is 0-3 ATS this season and 1-2 straight up. Two of his starts came on the road versus Buffalo and Detroit. Winning in overtime at home versus the Patriots isn't a ringing endorsement.

Rudolph will keep this game within striking distance, which is the status quo with most Colts games. Indianapolis is 6-5 in close games this season, which means 11 of their 14 games have been decided by one score. All of their six wins have come by one score or less.

The Titans are 2-4 in close games this season.

One of the Colts' biggest weaknesses is against explosive runs. The Titans have a running back duo that has shown the type of juice to take advantage of it.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tony Pollard has generated a career-high 831 yards after contact, the fifth-most among running backs this season.

Pollard has generated 84.7% of his total rushing yards after contact (sixth-highest) in part because he has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 47.4% of his carries (10th-highest), both are top 10 rates among running backs with at least 100 carries this season. The Colts have allowed 3.5 yards after contact per designed rush, the fifth-most in the league this season. If Pollard can't go based on his ankle injury, Tyjae Spears should be a strong 1-for-1 replacement.

The Colts had allowed over 100 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks before facing Denver in Week 15. No clear starting back to face the Colts has finished with fewer than 64 yards since Week 5.

And I do recall that the Titans’ offense started hot with Rudolph in the games he started. They scored touchdowns in the first quarter of all three of Rudolph's starts this season. We could easily expect to see the Colts fall behind given their recent track record. In each of the Colts’ last seven games, their opponents have been the first to 20 points. They are 2-7 ATS in their last seven games.

Take some value with first touchdown bets on the Titans’ side. Whether it be Spears if Pollard is out, or tight end Chig Okonkwo. Last week he was a major target, hauling in eight receptions on 10 targets for 59 yards. He led the team with a 27% target share.

The Titans tight end was hyper-targeted, seeing a target on 48% of his routes run. When you include penalties, Okonkwo totaled a whopping 13 targets in Week 15 (eight from Rudolph). With injuries piling up among Titans receivers, Okonkwo will be leaned on more as a receiver. The Colts are the third-worst defense against tight ends this season, allowing the second-most touchdowns, eighth-most yards and third-most catches to the position.

The Titans' defense is also a bit of a mixed bag. Tennessee’s season-long defensive numbers are solid, but it hasn’t helped them cover or win games. They have also gotten boat-raced by better offenses like the Packers, Bills, Lions, Chargers, Vikings, Commanders and Bengals. They lost all those games by 10-plus points.

The Anthony Richardson-led Colts are not an offensive juggernaut. And they don't blow teams out in any capacity.

Given the oddities of divisional games, underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last nine games between AFC South teams. It's best to avoid sides in this spot. You can't trust either offense to take control.

I lean toward the Titans with the points based on the fact the number is 3.5. This feels like a field goal game.

Therefore, take the under 42.5 points instead.

Props:

The Titans have allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last five games played.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Sides:

  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jets have lost nine of their 11 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 19 of their last 25 games. They are 4-10 ATS this season.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • In 10 of the Jets’ last 11 games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Rams have won each of their last four road games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 14 games.
  • Since 2023, the Rams are 5-11 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 4-5 as underdogs (5-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers (twice), Vikings and Bills.
  • The favorites have won 20 of the Rams’ last 25 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Rams’ last 10 games.
  • The Rams have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Sixteen of the Jets' last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 5-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.
  • At home, the Jets are 3-3 O/U.
  • Each of the Jets’ last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Rams' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Rams’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Rams’ last 20 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 14-13 toward the O/U in their last 27 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or an injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only eight times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.

Overall:

The Rams are road warriors. They have won each of their last four road games and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites. The Rams are also 4-0 ATS on the road in their last four road games after starting the year 0-3 on the road ATS. I've been on the profitable side of the Rams over the last few weeks - including Thursday's monsoon against the 49ers - where they snuck out a win.

I don't want to draw too many conclusions from that contest. It was a short week against a divisional opponent in bad weather conditions.

After all, the Rams are 7-2 since their Week 6 bye after starting the season 1-4. This Rams team wins and covers as a favorite against inferior teams, especially when they get suppressed lines playing on the road.

The Jets - as we all know - are an inferior team. They barely escaped with a victory against the Jaguars in Week 15.  They have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.

As underdogs this season, Gang Green is 0-4 ATS and straight up. I will say that live betting on the Rams might also be a sharp way to play this game, given how quickly the Jets have scored this season. But in the end, I don’t think you’ll even need the extra points to sweat the -3.5

Props:

With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy this season, Matthew Stafford has tossed for at least 240.5 passing yards in seven of his nine starts. Take the OVER for Week 16 on his passing yards prop set at 239.5 passing yards. Four of the last five quarterbacks the Jets faced surpassed 265 passing yards. New York is tied for the sixth-most deep passes faced this season (allowing the ninth-most deep passing yards per game).

Stafford has 10 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last five starts after throwing at least one interception in each of his six prior starts, per Next Gen Stats.

Kupp caught zero passes last week, but he should rebound in Week 16. The Jets are allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season - 53% of the receiver points they have allowed have been to the slot. Kupp has 56.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games this season. He is also 100% correlated to Stafford going over 240.5 passing yards.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

The Rams' secondary has been dreadful all year. They rank 29th in EPA/attempt on deep balls this season. Chunk plays are coming.

Aaron Rodgers has thrown for more than 1.5 touchdowns in five of his last seven games. Only once this season (Week 4 versus Denver) has he thrown for fewer than 1.5 passing TDs (83%) when playing at home.

Allen Lazard had a walk-in touchdown last week. With more attention thrown toward Davante Adams, I think Lazard flies under the radar in the red zone.

My Picks:

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Eagles are 5-12-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just four spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Commanders have a 21-point implied team total
  • The Eagles are 14-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 25 games.
  • The Eagles have won each of their last 10 games.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in each of their last five road games.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 11 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Eagles' last 19 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 21 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last 15 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in each of their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 14 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 20 games. They are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in five of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Commanders have scored first in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 14-18 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 6-12 toward the over on the road.
  • Nine of the Eagles' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Eagles’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-6 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-5 toward the over at home this season (42 points per game).
  • Eight of the Commanders' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Commanders' last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Commanders’ last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 7-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 16-4 toward the OVER.
  • The Eagles have a 24-point implied team total.
  • The Commanders are 5-3 O/U at home, averaging over 48.5 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

We have another divisional rematch in Week 16 between the Eagles and Commanders. These teams played earlier this season in a Thursday Night Football game, with the Eagles emerging victorious 26-18. The spread was Eagles -3.5, as the Commanders have failed to match up to stiffer competition.

That's been their issue, as they have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records. They are officially 1-3 in those games this season, but they would be 0-4 had it not been for the Hail Mary play against the Chicago Bears.

Therefore, it's tough to back the Commanders even at home catching 3.5 points against the class of the NFC.

We should instead bet sides like we always do with the Eagles. We live bet them after they fall behind in the first quarter. Washington scored first the last time these teams played, and we could easily see that again.

My favorite pre-game play is to take the under on the 45.5-point total. This number seems way too high for two teams that rank inside the top 10 in run rate this season. This total closed at 48.5 in their first matchup and finished under the total at 44 points.

The Commanders' defense has cornerback Marshon Lattimore back in the fold. Their defense has played drastically better at home (third-fewest yards allowed per game). Saquon Barkley is also clearly not 100%, which caps the Eagles' offensive output.

Head coach Dan Quinn has more than enough experience going head-to-head against Jalen Hurts to add some extra defensive wrinkles to slow down Philly's offense and ensure this game finishes under 45.5 points.

Nine of the Eagles' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line (five of their last six overall).

Props:

Jayden Daniels completed 25-of-31 passes for 226 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions, achieving a stellar passer rating of 118.5. Daniels delivered a composed and accurate performance, leading multiple scoring drives. The rookie displayed his dual-dual-threat ability with 11 carries for 66 yards (6.0 yards per carry), including a 24-yard run.

However, the matchup coming up versus the Eagles is going to be rough. No passer has hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. Daniels passed for just 191 yards when these teams last played. Take the UNDER on Daniels’ 211.5 passing yards prop line. The projections have him under 200 passing yards. He has gone under 215.5 passing yards in four of his last six games.

Zach Ertz Made his presence felt with two receptions on two targets for 25 yards, with a long catch of 19 yards last week for the Commanders. But Ertz got knocked out of the game early. Rookie Ben Sinnott stepped in and added one reception for seven yards on his lone target.

Veteran John Bates caught his only target for six yards. The two backup tight ends each played 54% of the snaps. However, Sinnott is the one to target for receiving props if Ertz doesn’t play, given he absorbed the majority of routes run (47%). The Eagles have faced the fourth-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season.

My Picks:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 13 of their last 16 games.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 45% ATS (8-11) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 23 road contests.
  • The Bills have won 17 of their last 21 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.
  • The Bills have won 10 of their last 11 home games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 20-7 as a favorite since the start of last season and 14-13 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 29 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Bills have won their last 14 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 14-2 straight up and 9-7 ATS at home.
  • Bills are 8-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • As a road underdog, Buffalo is 3-4 straight up and on the Moneyline (33%).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.

Totals:

  • 13 of the last 19 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Eight of the Patriots’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in 10 out of 14 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • The Patriots are 9-5 toward the over this season.
  • They are 5-1 toward the over at home (46 points per game).
  • Each of the Bills' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line. They are 6-0 toward the over this season (53 points per game).
  • Buffalo is 6-0 toward the over at home this season (53 points per game).
  • 13 of the Bills' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line - 19 of their last 25 road games.
  • Ten of the Bills' last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills' last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills' last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

We don't need to overcomplicate this game, folks. Avoid the sides in a divisional game with a massive 14.5-point spread. After two insane games, it’s hard not to view this as a potential letdown spot for the Bills.

No team has covered the spread after playing Detroit besides the Jaguars and Packers (although they each had extra rest in between).

Therefore, we are going right for the OVER on the total set at 46.5 points. The Patriots’ defense is no good, so anticipate a 30-spot for the Bills’ offense. Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in eight straight games. Ten of the Bills' last 11 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line. Every single game played in Buffalo this season has gone OVER the total. Eight of the Bills’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Expect New England's offense to provide some pushback on their end. Drake Maye is the only part of this offense that works, and that has been leading to Pats games (combined with their horrible defense) going OVER the projected game totals.

According to Next Gen Stats, Maye has completed 53-of-69 passes (76.8%) against cloud coverage (Cover 2 Zone/Cover 6) this season, producing a +7.1% completion percentage over expected, the third-highest mark in the NFL.

He has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against cloud coverage (third-most), notably higher than his overall mark of 6.8 yards per attempt. The Bills have played cloud coverage on 34.2% of pass snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL. When utilizing cloud, they have allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt (third-fewest) and have not allowed a touchdown on 167 attempts.

Maye has thrown for 200-plus yards in seven out of 10 games played this season and in four of his last five games.

Eight of the Patriots’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line. Patriots games have hit at least 47 points in six of their last eight games.

The weather in Buffalo will be cold, but no precipitation is in the forecast. So, sit back, relax and watch the points pour in from Josh Allen and the next Josh Allen.

Props:

Rookie Keon Coleman contributed with 64 yards on one reception last week. Dalton Kincaid caught four passes for 53 yards.

Kincaid led the team in receiving air yards with 84 yards (24% air yard share) and a target share of 22%, catching four passes for 53 yards. He was the most targeted player in the game (eight). He caught a 10-yard touchdown that was called back on an offensive holding call.

He was the biggest winner among Bills skill position players, being targeted on 38% of his routes run. Even with a limited role, I’d expect his routes/snaps to increase another week back from his injury.

I think his receiving yards line is way too low at 35.5 yards. Take the OVER. Projections have him well OVER 40 receiving yards.

I also like his touchdown odds. So many times this season guys have scored touchdowns that have been negated by a penalty. Then the very next week, they score and it counts.

The Patriots’ defense ranks dead last in EPA/target allowed to pass-catchers aligned tight this season.

Since Week 7, Josh Allen has thrown for 240-plus yards in six of his last eight games.

The Bills' defense ranks in the top three in most yards, catches and targets allowed to running backs in the passing game this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson has at least 13.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games

Kendrick Bourne has at least 30 receiving yards in five straight games. Hunter Henry has OVER 40 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games played.

Last week, Henry caught all four of his targets for 25 yards (18% target share). Henry was involved in 80% of the snaps, reflecting his significant role in the passing game. Three of his four targets came in the first half.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have allowed a 29.2% completion rate on deep pass attempts (20+ air yards), the seventh-lowest in the NFL. They are one of seven teams to allow two touchdowns or fewer on deep passes.

Christian Gonzalez is the only player in the NFL who has been the nearest defender on more than 10 deep attempts (12) and allowed one completion or fewer (one). Gonzalez has forced a 66.7% tight window rate on these passes and recorded four passes defended.

My Picks:

 Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The Vikings have won each of their last seven games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 20 games.
  • They are 9-5 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • All but eight of the Vikings’ last 28 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (73%).
  • The Vikings are 7-4-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in each of their last six road games.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 13 of their last 14 games.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 13-4 on the Moneyline (75%) but just 8-10 ATS (45%).
  • The Vikings have dropped eight of their last 11 home games ATS as a favorite.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • In each of the Seahawks’ last three games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Seahawks have lost six of their last 11 games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last five games.
  • The favorites have won 23 of the Seahawks’ last 29 games.
  • The road team has won nine of the Seahawks’ last 10 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in nine of the Seahawks’ last 10 games.
  • Seattle is 4-6 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is 10-15-1 ATS in their last 26 games played (9-12-1 over the last 20 games).
  • Seattle is 12-3 as a favorite in the last 15 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle, as a road underdog, is 9-8 ATS (55%). As away underdogs on the Moneyline, they are 6-11.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last eight road games.

Totals:

  • Twelve of the Vikings' last 17 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Vikings’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 8-6 toward the UNDER this season. They are 5-2 toward the under at home, averaging under 46 points per game.
  • The Vikings are 4-11-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Six of the Seahawks' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Seahawks’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seattle is 3-5 toward the over at home, averaging 41.8 points per game.
  • Each of the Seahawks’ last four home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Seahawks’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Seattle laid an egg last Sunday night against the Packers. Naturally, I was on the wrong side of the Seahawks again, backing them as 2.5-point home underdogs. If Seattle isn't playing Arizona, we need to recalibrate expectations.

They are now 4-1 straight up and ATS on the back of impressive defensive performances. But three of those wins have come against NFC West teams, with the other coming against the New York Jets. I didn't consider enough the weight class Seattle was up against when taking on Green Bay last week. Their improved run defense got exposed. Because it has otherwise been solid.

The Seahawks have allowed just two rushing touchdowns since Week 9, compared to nine touchdowns in the first eight weeks of the season.

As for Minnesota, they continue to ride high. Winners of seven straight, they are live to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

But they haven't been super dominant playing on the road. They are 1-3 ATS in their last four road games, including 0-2 in spreads of 3-4 points. Minnesota hasn't covered in this spot this year.

Seattle, however, can't be a confident team to bet on playing outside the division. Of their eight non-covers, six have been out of the division.

The Seahawks have been overrated at home - they have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine home games - as road teams have dominated their matchups straight up and ATS.

I think I want to approach this game similarly to the Bears-Vikings matchup from Monday Night. Take the Minnesota -1.5 first-half spread. The Vikings score quickly, and the Seahawks do not. If Minnesota jumps out to a lead, Seattle could be in trouble. The injury to Geno Smith halted any hopes of a comeback, but they would have likely come out firing to get back in the game.

Regardless, I liked the Seattle game going under last week, and I think we could see something similar. Smith is dealing with a knee injury (although he is practicing in full and expected to play).

When Smith is kept clean, he can do damage in this offense. But if the Vikings' blitz-heavy defense gets after him, we could see more sacks and stalled drives. Smith is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (five) against the blitz this season.

And should the Seahawks’ defense stifle the Vikings on the road, this game will easily fall short of the 43.5 total. Seattle is 3-5 toward the over at home, averaging 42 points per game. Each of the Seahawks’ last four home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

We are also looking at potential weather playing a role in this game. After the total opened at 45.5 it dropped to 42.5 with rain in the forecast.

Props:

The Seahawks have pressed their outside corners at one of the highest rates in the NFL this season. Jordan Addison has the third-highest air yards per target against press this season, averaging 2.2 yards per route run (YPRR).  He also has gone over 51.5 receiving yards in five straight games.

Geno Smith has attempted under 33.5 passes in seven of his last eight games, including eight of the last 10 games with Seattle as underdogs. Starting running back Kenneth Walker will be making his return to the lineup, potentially putting more emphasis on the ground game. His rushing prop line is 57.5 yards, a number he has missed in three straight and gone over just twice in his last eight games played.

T.J. Hockenson saw seven targets (one in the red zone), catching five passes for 52 yards. His air yard percentage was 18%, with a target share of 19% and a long of 16 yards. Hockenson had 55 air yards. This is a great matchup for him.

Seattle has allowed receiving prop overs to the last four tight ends they have faced since their bye. They have faced the most-targets to TEs over the last four weeks,

Hockenson has seen plenty of red-zone targets since returning from IR this season, but he hasn’t found the end zone yet. That will change after Sunday.

We know that Minnesota drives volume from their opponents.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 16 of their last 20 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 20 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season.
  • They are just 3-14 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-3 as a home underdog and 5-6 on the Moneyline.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in nine of their last 18 games.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 10 games.
  • The Raiders are 13-8-1 ATS at home (65%). They are 5-5-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-8 straight up.
  • The Raiders are 9-4 ATS as home favorites ATS (69%) and 9-3 on the Moneyline at home (75%).
  • The Raiders are 13-10-1 ATS over their last 24 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 11 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
  • Opponents have scored last in four of the Raiders' last five games.
  • The Raiders have lost the first quarter in each of their last five games.
  • In each of the Raiders’ last 10 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Jaguars' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 3-3 toward the over at home (over 45 points per game).
  • Nine of the Jaguars’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in nine of their last 22 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Raiders’ last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 17-13 toward the under.
  • Six of the Raiders' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Raiders' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Raiders are 4-2 toward the over at home, with games averaging 43 points per game.
  • Seven of the Raiders’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

When these lines initially dropped, I was very much on the side of the Jaguars catching points on the road against the Raiders. I projected them closer to a field goal road favorite. But we got news Aidan O'Connell would be the starter for the Raiders, and that matters substantially in my opinion. He is so much better than Desmond Ridder.

O’Connell can't move but he can get the ball to his top playmakers. And more often than not, he exceeds expectations.

The former Purdue signal-caller is now 5-9 as a starter and 9-4-1 ATS. The Raiders have covered more than their fair share of home games as favorites. The Raiders are 9-4 ATS as home favorites (69%) and 9-3 on the Moneyline at home (75%).

This team plays hard for Antonio Pierce. O’Connell has more than enough weaponry between Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers to inflict damage on the Jaguars’ atrocious pass defense. The Jaguars specifically are one of the worst defenses against tight ends.

The last time Bowers played a full game with O'Connell he went off for 140 yards.

I like the Raiders as small home favorites against Jacksonville. But my favorite bet in this game is the OVER at 40.5 points. I think both offenses can perform above expectations based on the two opposing defenses. There's no Maxx Crosby for the Raiders and they can't stop the run.

Even though the quarterbacks are lackluster, there are enough weapons on both sides. Factor playing in dome conditions and they can push this total north of 40 points. These are two of the easiest matchups these two quarterbacks will face all season.

And the trends agree. Seven of the Jaguars’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line. Six of the Raiders' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Props:

Tank Bigsby has forced 49 missed tackles on 136 total touches this season, generating the third-highest missed tackle forced rate (36.0%) among all players with at least 50 touches.

The Raiders have missed a tackle on 13.9% of tackle attempts, the 10th-highest rate in the league.

However, Bigsby might not be the No. 1 RB in this Jaguars backfield.

Travis Etienne led the ground game with 14 carries for 65 yards (4.6 yards per carry) last week, including a 10-yard long run. Etienne added value as a pass-catcher, catching four of his five targets for 20 yards, with a long of eight yards. Etienne also totaled three touches in the red zone and had another 40-yard catch wiped away due to an offensive pass interference call.

Bigsby contributed 11 carries for 42 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and two red-zone carries. He showed flashes of power with a 14-yard rush. Bigsby was targeted once but failed to secure a reception.

A week after Bigsby dominated the touches, Etienne dominated the snaps 73% to 26% in Week 15 against the Jets. Part of this was the overall pass-heavy game script, as Etienne dominated the routes out of the backfield.

Given that this week is the Raiders, you'd think we could "trust" Bigsby in a better game script. But he fumbled against the Jets in the first quarter, raising concern about his job security.

In the first half, Etienne had 10 carries for 51 yards. I know that he's been a bust for fantasy football purposes, but he hasn't been that poor as a rusher. During the year, he ranked 15th in rushing success rate (43%).

Brian Thomas Jr. dominated as the go-to target, catching 10 out of 14 targets (three red-zone targets) for 105 yards and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard explosive play. The rookie commanded a 29% air yards share, 33% target share and 86 air yards.

He is proving his worth as a "quarterback-proof" asset in recent weeks.

In the last four games, Thomas Jr. has averaged over 20 PPR points, a 30% target share, a 40% air yards share and 87-plus receiving yards per game. Four straight OVERs. It’s BTJ WR1 SZN.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 17 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last eight home games.
  • The Dolphins have won 23 of their last 30 home games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots and Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night or against the Texans in Week 15.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in seven of their last nine games.
  • Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-10 overall since 2023. They are 5-11 as an underdog in their last 16 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 15 home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 17 of the 49ers' last 26 games.
  • San Francisco is 15-7 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • So far, in 2024, they are 4-4 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears, not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle/L.A. Rams.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread four times in their last 15 home games.
  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.

Totals:

  • Each of the Dolphins’ last five home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Miami is 5-2 toward the OVER at home this season (46 points per game).
  • The Dolphins are 5-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa the last eight weeks.
  • Twn of the Dolphins' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Dolphins' last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 12 of the Dolphins’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the 49ers' last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the 49ers' last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 4-4 toward the over at home, averaging under 45 points per game.
  • The 49ers have scored first in each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.

Overall:

Here we are back again with the Fraudy Niners. Except this time around they will be taking on an equally disappointing Miami Dolphins team. Both teams sit at 6-8, well below preseason expectations.

They have been the epitome of the Spiderman meme. Beat bad teams but get beat by good teams.

The market believes the Dolphins will win (although it's basically a pick'em), and I tend to agree. After all, Miami beats (and covers) when they face teams with losing records. Especially when they play at home.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. They are 5-3 straight up as a favorite. The Niners are 0-2 as underdogs.

Don't overthink this one. Continue to fade the 49ers and buy the dip on the Dolphins in a prime bounce-back spot.

As for the total, I love the OVER. These two high-powered offenses are coming off bad outings, which has brought this total down to 44.5 points. It should be closer to 47.5 in my estimation.

Each of the Dolphins’ last five home games have gone OVER the total points line. And Miami is 5-2 toward the OVER at home this season (48 points per game).

Props:

Back the OVER on Brock Purdy’s 239.5 passing yards. He has been bad in three of his last four games. But he has exceeded this number in eight of his 13 games this season (62%) - six out of nine with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings all in the lineup.

Per Next Gen Stats, The Dolphins have played Cover 2 at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (24.0%) this season, after doing so at the lowest rate in the league last season (1.2%) under former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Purdy has averaged 9.2 yards per attempt against Cover 2 this season, third-most in the league.

With the 49ers down to their fourth-string running back, I think this team takes out it’s frustration by letting Purdy rip it.

George Kittle was Purdy’s primary target last week, finishing with four receptions for 61 yards on seven targets (23% target share).

Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one. He has gone for 45-plus yards in 10 straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game, over 54.5 yards in nine of his last 11 games and over 66.5 in four out of his last seven games.

According to Next Gen Stats, Kittle leads all tight ends in receiving yards on downfield targets (10+ air yards) for the second consecutive season, totaling 446 yards on such targets this season, over 100 more than the next player (Brock Bowers: 332). Kittle has also recorded the most air yards per target (17.4) and the deepest average route depth (18.4) on downfield targets of his career this season.

Deebo Samuel has been beyond terrible for fantasy football purposes, and that was on full display Thursday Night. At this point in the year, no kind of usage is going to change his production. He has had opportunities to deliver and has fallen well short of expectations. Take the UNDER on his receiving line. It’s set at 43 yards. He hasn’t had more than 22 yards in five straight games.

He has recorded 331 of his 569 yards after the catch this season, averaging a career-low 7.7 yards after the catch per reception, 0.8 yards fewer than his previous career-low set during his rookie season (2019), according to Next Gen Stats.

De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight home games. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs over the last four weeks (and five rushing five rushing touchdowns).

My Picks:

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