NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Merry Christmas to all, and to all, let’s make some money.

This day has historically been coined “the start of the NBA season,” though the NFL has attempted to overtake the stage on Christmas Day. And despite this slate being rather disappointing, there is still opportunity to cash in on mispriced player props.

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 271.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Packers rate eighth in pass defense and 32nd in run defense in the NFL. This matchup begs Miami to run the ball, and if they comply, we should see Tua Tagovailoa go comfortably under this total. Miami also showed an inclination to run the ball as recently as last week, as the Dolphins’ run game was its offensive engine in Buffalo.

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Sometimes it is this easy. The reputation of Aaron Rodgers continues to inflate his yardage props, and the three-time MVP has crossed this number only twice this season. The Packers’ offense is no threat, nor has it been fueled by Rodgers’ right arm.

Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (+100)

Rodgers is tied for eighth in the NFL with 23 passing TDs, and the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL. This is an excellent price to back one of the greatest players of all-time (Rodgers) to carry his team in their most pivotal game of the year.

Trace McSorley UNDER 0.5 INTs (+145)

We doubt the Cardinals ask much of third-string QB Trace McSorley this game, and the likelihood of him throwing an interception is a product of the number of pass attempts he throws. Let’s anticipate the Cardinals asking very little of McSorley in what is projected to be a low-scoring game.

Chris Godwin OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

In his 11 games this season, Chris Godwin has seen 113 total targets. And, this season, Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady leads the NFL in pass attempts. The Dolphins’ pass defense rates 26th in DVOA this season, and we like Godwin’s chances at crossing this number opposite the marginal Dolphins’ defense.

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