NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Christmas Day is usually dominated by NBA Basketball, but this year the NFL is getting in on the action. With three NFL matchups on Sunday, there’s going to be some interesting games to watch in between Christmas festivities. If you’re looking for some skin in the game, or hoping to recoup money spent on gifts, I’d recommend these three Same Game Parlays, all offered on Draftkings.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Packers vs. Dolphins
Leg 1: Packers ML (+150)
While the Dolphins come into this game with the better record, the Packers have been playing better football in recent weeks. Miami has lost three straight, and is at risk of missing the playoffs if they don’t get a win on the board soon. Green Bay, meanwhile, is 3-2 over their last five games and have won two straight. In that five game stretch, they have two losses to teams projected to make the playoffs (including the Eagles, the NFC’s one seed) and a win over the Cowboys.
The Dolphins’ biggest liability has been their pass defense. They rank bottom-five in the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed, and have given up 937 passing yards and seven passing TDs in their last three games. With Aaron Rodgers playing in warm weather in a must-win game, I expect the Packers to give the Dolphins trouble on Sunday.
Leg 2: O53.5 (+130)
While Miami’s pass defense is a liability, their offense has been exceptional this season. Even as they’ve lost their last three games, they’ve scored a respectable 21 points per game against three solid defenses (San Francisco, Los Angeles Chargers, and Buffalo). Green Bay, meanwhile, has allowed 25.2 points per game over their last five despite having a winning record in that stretch.
I expect this game to be a shootout, with both QBs trading scores all game. I feel comfortable getting a bit aggressive with this over, and taking the alternate total of 53.5.
Broncos vs. Rams
Leg 1: Broncos -2.5 (-120)
While it’s been a massively disappointing season for the Broncos, it’s somehow been an even tougher season for the Rams. LA has lost seven of their last eight games. They’ve turned to Baker Mayfield at starter, who played a disappointing game in Green Bay last week. They’ve only scored more than 17 points twice in that eight game stretch.
Denver is nowhere near where they hoped to be coming into the season, but they’ve shown some signs of life in recent weeks. Over their last three games they have one-possession losses to the Ravens and Chiefs – two likely playoff teams – and a win over the Cardinals. For most teams this stretch may represent a downturn – for the Broncos it’s some of the best football they’ve played all year.
This game may get ugly, but with the Broncos sensational defense and Russell Wilson returning to the lineup this week I think they win this game.
Leg 2: Rams Team Total U10.5 Points (+280)
As mentioned before, the Rams offense has been brutal in recent weeks. They’ve scored just 15.8 points per game over their last eight games, and they’ve been held under 14 points in half these games.
Denver’s defense is one of the best in the league this season. They’ve allowed 18.1 points per game this year, putting them behind only San Francisco and Buffalo in terms of NFL scoring defense rankings. Given the tough games the Rams have had with Baker Mayfield under center against the Raiders and Packers – two below-median scoring defenses – I think they could be in for a long day against the Broncos.
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals
Leg 1: Cardinals +10.5 (-150)
Despite a down year, the Buccaneers will take a massive step toward clinching a playoff berth out of the dismal NFC South with a win in this game. They’ll be in a good spot to win going against Cardinals’ third-string QB Trace McSorley. That said, Tampa Bay is having serious struggles on the road recently. They’ve lost four straight road games, including a 28-point blowout loss to Brock Purdy and the 49ers last time they traveled to the west coast.
I don’t think Arizona will win this game, but with a low total of 39.5 points and Tampa Bay’s recent road struggles I think they’ll at least keep things close. Tampa Bay has struggled on defense recently, and the Cardinals’ offense should be able to post a respectable total and cover this alternate spread.
Leg 2: Russell Gage Anytime TD (+330)
This is a bit of a longshot play, but Russell Gage’s TD odds seem much higher than they should be given his usage. In an offense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Russell Gage has emerged as a premier red zone threat. Gage is tied for the Bucs’ lead in red zone targets, and leads the WR group in red zone TDs. He’s coming off a 12 target, two TD week against a solid Bengals defense.
Given the inverse correlation with Cardinals +10.5, this play is a gutsy one, but it provides a massive boost to our parlay odds. This is a longshot worth taking.
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