NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday Slate)
Happy holidays! Here’s to a relaxing holiday season spent with the people you care most about. And hopefully, Santa Claus can leave a few winners under the tree.
This week we’re tweaking the script just a little bit. Typically, I’ve been giving my favorite Sunday parlay picks. However, with only three games on Sunday because of Christmas, I’ll be providing my favorite same-game parlay picks for Saturday’s busier slate. So without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks – holiday edition.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Week 16 Parlay
- Ravens-Falcons under 35.5
- Giants +4
- Commanders +7
- Odds: +597
Tyler Huntley vs. Desmond Ridder, who is making his first career road start in a hostile environment in 30-mile-per-hour winds? You do the math. I’m also fading Minnesota yet again and backing the Giants, who make up for their lack of talent with incredible coaching. Finally, I think this Commanders-49ers spread is too high and an overreaction both ways. The Commanders were the talk of the league before they lost in unlucky fashion to the Giants. And while Brock Purdy has been great, I’m not sure he should be laying seven points in a situation where his head coach is notoriously terrible in.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4), Total 48
- Giants +4
- Daniel Jones over 219.5 passing yards
- Kirk Cousins to throw an INT
- Odds: +625
The Giants have done so much with such little talent, while the Vikings continue to defy the regression gods by pulling games out of their you know whats. I’m rolling with Big Blue in this one, as I think Jones could have success throwing the ball against a Vikings secondary that ranks 27th in DVOA. Cousins has also been one of the worst quarterbacks against the blitz, and his offensive line hasn’t been great in pass protection. Against a blitz-heavy Giants defense, I expect Cousins to make a mistake.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7), Total 35.5
This game doesn’t have a prop menu as of now due to injury uncertainty at quarterback for Baltimore. However, the assumption is Tyler Huntley will start. One prop I do like once the menu opens is J.K. Dobbins going over his rushing yardage total. Dobbins has surpassed 120 yards in his first two games back from injury and gets a Falcons defense that’s 26th in rush defense DVOA. I’d also bet against Desmond Ridder, fading his passing yardage props, and don’t mind a bet on him throwing an interception either.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10), Total 49
- Under 49
- D.K. Metcalf under 84.5 receiving yards
- Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +400
I suspect this will be a game that the Chiefs look to get in and get out with a win and good health. I also think Seattle’s offense could struggle without Tyler Lockett, who is their speed threat in the passing game. Metcalf will get plenty of targets, but I suspect the Chiefs could double-team him or at least provide dedicated safety help to his side. Lastly, I expect Kansas City to establish an early lead and keep the ball on the ground, which means Pacheco could be in store for a big day against a porous Seahawks run defense.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3), Total 35.5
DraftKings had a limited prop menu for this game as well due to the injury to Ryan Tannehill. However, I would build any same-game parlay around Derrick Henry once more props come out. Henry has destroyed this Texans run defense in the past. And Houston’s run defense is still 24th in DVOA despite some recent improvement. Don’t forget, Malik Willis started the first meeting between these teams. Henry ran for 219 yards on 32 attempts. Hammer Henry’s overs, and bet on him to crack pay dirt too. I also don’t mind betting on Davis Mills to throw an interception, as he’s been dreadful on the road in his young career.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Chicago Bears, Total 39.5
- Bears +8.5
- Josh Allen anytime TD
- Devin Singletary over 50 rushing yards
- Odds: +1100
The Bills really have no incentive to blow the Bears out, especially with a big game against Cincinnati on deck next week. Like Kansas City, I suspect Buffalo will look to just get in and out with a win. However, the Bears allowed Jalen Hurts to rush for three scores last week, and I’d expect Allen to find the end zone with his legs too. I also think Singletary could see more carries as the Bills try to run the clock and get out of frigid Chicago. The Bears rank 27th in run defense DVOA.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots, Total 41.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Joe Burrow under 279.5 passing yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson over 59.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +310
Far from the juiciest parlay, but I suspect we’ll see a maximum effort from the Pats at home after that embarrassing collapse against the Raiders last week. To get there, I think New England will prioritize the ground game against a Bengals defense that’s middle-of-the-road against the run. Stevenson is averaging five yards per carry and should clear this prop if the game script stays manageable. The Patriots have the second-best defense in the league per DVOA, and Belichick should find ways to get pressure against a Bengals offensive line that still isn’t trustworthy.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers, Total 44
This game still lacks any player props, and it’s one I’m planning to avoid on Saturday. I would lean to the over, as well as overs on Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Moore’s receiving yardage.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Total 32.5
This is another game with few player props, but assuming Nick Chubb is good to go I will take the over on his rushing props, as well as unders on Andy Dalton and Deshaun Watson passing yards and attempts. With 30-50 MPH winds expected, this game will be run on the ground. Fortunately, both defenses don’t defend the ground game well. This game could surprisingly go over the point total for that reason. I also like Alvin Kamara clearing his rushing yardage prop for the second straight week.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5), Total 37.5
- Commanders +7.5
- Christian McCaffrey under 84.5 rushing yards
- Taylor Heinicke to throw an INT
- Odds: +330
I think the Commanders are coming at a value here, as their defense is playing at a really high level. Kyle Shanahan is 24-28-1 as a favorite and 13-16-1 as a home favorite. His game plans tend to be extremely conservative in these spots. The 49ers’ defense is balling out, which gives me concern, but we could see a Heinicke INT early and a potential switch back to Carson Wentz. That would throw even more variance into this game. The Commanders are also playing for their playoff hopes, while San Fran has the NFC West locked up. Lastly, Washington has a fierce run defense that will get Chase Young back for his season debut. I expect them to dare Brock Purdy to beat them.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), Total 46.5
Gardner Minshew has been named Philadelphia’s starting QB as Jalen Hurts nurses a right shoulder injury. However, the prop market has not been generated for this game yet. I would take the game under, as I suspect Philadelphia’s offense will struggle to hold up its end of the bargain. I’d also fade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who may not have much chemistry with their new QB and will face a stingy Cowboys defense that’ll be highly motivated after last week’s meltdown in Jacksonville.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5), Total 38.5
- Raiders +2.5
- Davante Adams over 69.5 receiving yards
- Najee Harris anytime TD
- Odds: +700
The Raiders needed a late charge to get into the playoffs at 6-7 last year. And last week’s miraculous win over New England might have served as the catalyst for another late run. The Steelers are eighth in run defense DVOA, but just 18th against the pass. After being neutralized last week, I’d bank on Adams getting back on track this week. Backing the Vegas defense is always perilous, but I’m not confident Kenny Pickett is capable of exposing this 31st-ranked pass defense, per DVOA. Harris has scored in four of his last five games, and I’d expect him to crack the end zone again in this one.
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