Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 16 Early Bets and Trends
For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I’ve written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I’ve noticed for the upcoming week.
I’m not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
So here are some trends for Week 16 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Note: For more of my early Week 16 bets, check out the BettingPros App.
All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Dec. 18. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Check out our Bills at Bears matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Soldier Field
- Consensus Spread: Bills -9.5
Bills at Bears: 2022 ATS Records
- Bills ATS: 5-8-1 (-25.6% ROI)
- bears ATS: 5-9 (-32.0% ROI)
Buffalo Bills Trend
- QB Josh Allen: 21-12-2 ATS (20.7% ROI) on road
Chicago Bears Trend
- QB Justin Fields: 4-8 ATS (26.8% ROI for faders) at home
Bills at Bears: Early Bet
- Best Line: Bills -8 (-114, FanDuel)
- Early Projection: Bills -10
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of -8.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Saints at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- Consensus Spread: Saints +3.5
Saints at Browns: 2022 ATS Records
- Saints ATS: 5-9 (-31.8% ROI)
- Browns ATS: 7-6-1 (2.7% ROI)
New Orleans Saints Trends
- QB Andy Dalton: 43-34-2 ATS (9.8% ROI) as underdog
- QB Andy Dalton: 28-21-2 ATS (12.2% ROI) as road underdog
Cleveland Browns Trends
- QB Deshaun Watson: 11-15-2 ATS (9.6% ROI for faders) as favorite
- QB Deshaun Watson: 8-11 ATS (10.3% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Saints at Browns: Early Bet
- Best Line: Saints +3.5 (-113, UniBet)
- Early Projection: Saints +2.25
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +3.5.
If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Packers at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Consensus Spread: Dolphins -4.5
Packers at Dolphins: 2022 ATS Records
- Packers ATS: 5-8 (-25.9% ROI)
- Dolphins ATS: 7-7 (-3.6% ROI)
Miami Dolphins Trend
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 12-4 ATS (43.5% ROI) at home
Packers at Dolphins: Early Bet
- Best Line: Dolphins -4 (-110, DraftKings)
- Early Projection: Saints +2.25
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of -4.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
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