NFL Week 16 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Dec 19, 2023

Here is an early look at the NFL Week 16 odds and trends:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Week 16 Early Odds & Trends

Saints @ Rams - Thursday, December 21 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - LAR -4; O/U 44.5

Saints trends:

Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 16-4 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 21 games following a win: 6-14-1 ATS
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 14-18 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 13-19-1 ATS
Dennis Allen (Career): 26-39-2 ATS

Rams trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 25 games following a win: 11-15 ATS
Previous 33 non-divisional games: 13-17-3 ATS

Best bet: LAR -4

The Rams have been one of the more profitable home teams to back recently, and the Dennis Allen-led Saints have been anything but. I'll back the Rams to cover this spread in a de facto home playoff game, as both teams are pushing for an NFC Wild Card spot.

Bengals @ Steelers - Saturday, December 23 - 4:30 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -2.5; O/U 38.5

Bengals trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-6-2 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 14-6 ATS
Previous 34 games following a win: 22-11-1 ATS
Zac Taylor (Career): 44-34-1 ATS

Steelers trends:

Previous 16 divisional games: 10-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 12-5-3 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 21 games following a loss: 12-9 ATS
Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 55-31-3 ATS

Bet bet: PIT +2.5

This spot screams Steelers to me, with Pittsburgh coming in off three consecutive losses and Cincinnati riding high after picking up several wins with Jake Browning at quaterback. If Mike Tomlin still has it, the Steelers should cover and potentially even win this game.

Bills @ Chargers - Saturday, December 23 - 8:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -10.5; O/U 42.5

Bills trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-6-1 to the Under
Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 36-29-4 ATS

Chargers trends:

Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-2-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 14-5-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 6-14 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Brandon Staley as an underdog (Career): 9-6-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 42.5

Despite the perceived offensive firepower of these teams, both have trended heavily toward the under in these spots and the Chargers are obviously hampered on the offensive side of the ball with critical injuries. I'll take this game to stay under the point total, especially as it currently sits over the key number of 42.

Colts @ Falcons - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - IND -2.5; O/U 44

Colts trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games: 15-5 to the Over
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 19-12 ATS
Shane Steichen as a favorite (Career): 6-1 ATS

Falcons trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
Previous 14 non-conference games: 5-8-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-14 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 10-20-1 ATS
Taylor Heinicke (Career): 12-14-2 ATS
Arthur Smith (Career): 20-27-1 ATS

Best bet: ATL +2.5

While Shane Steichen has emerged as one of the better young head coaches in the NFL, I believe that this Colts team has been running pretty lucky this year with some of the breaks they've gotten against opposing quarterbacks. Taylor Heinicke will start over Desmond Ridder and the Falcons are markedly better at home, so I think they're a live dog in this one.

Lions @ Vikings - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -3; O/U 47

Lions trends:

Previous 16 divisional games: 11-5 ATS
Previous 19 games following a win: 12-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS
Dan Campbell (Career): 35-24-1 ATS

Vikings trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-2-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 19 games following a loss: 10-7-2 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under

Best bet: DET -3

I think the Lions road performances over recent weeks are giving us a discount on this number, as I don't see any reason why this should be below 4. Though it's on the road, this game will still be played indoors on a fast track that the Lions should be able to take advantage of.

Commanders @ Jets - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - NYJ -3; O/U 38

Commanders trends:

Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 27 games following a loss: 10-15-2 ATS
Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 59-46-2 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 4-9-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 6-13-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 29 games following a loss: 13-16 ATS
Robert Saleh (Career): 20-27-1 ATS

Best bet: WAS +3

This is the most avoidable game on the board this week, but if I had to make a pick on it I would take the Commanders getting a field goal on the road because the Jets and their quarterback carousel really don't deserve to be a favorite by three points against anybody.

Packers @ Panthers - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - GB -5; O/U 37

Packers trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 33 non-divisional games: 18-15 ATS
Previous 34 conference games: 20-14 ATS
Matt LaFleur (Career): 46-34 ATS

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 12 games following a win: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 21 non-divisional games: 8-22-1 ATS
Previous 34 conference games: 12-20-2 ATS

Best bet: CAR +5

While the Panthers still don't look like a good team, they have proven to be more competent and competitive since the firing of Frank Reich. The Packers defense has been an absolute sieve recently and I could definitely see Carolina sneaking in the back door of a spread this large, especially at home.

Browns @ Texans - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - HOU -2.5; O/U 42.5

Browns trends:

Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over
Previous 10 road games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 22 games following a win: 7-14-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 14-19 ATS
Kevin Stefanski (Career): 28-33-2 ATS

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 13 games following a win: 5-8 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 4-15-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 13-18-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 18-15 ATS
DeMeco Ryans as a favorite (Career): 1-4 ATS

Best bet: HOU -2.5

The Browns defense has been significantly more susceptible on the road this year, and C.J. Stroud figures to return for the Texans this week. I like them to cover this spread under a field goal in front of their home fans.

Seahawks @ Titans - Sunday, December 24 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SEA -2.5; O/U 42.5

Seahawks trends:

Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 13 non-conference games: 7-5-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-11-2 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Titans trends:

Previous 10 games with rest advantage: 6-4 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 22 games following a loss: 12-9-1 ATS
Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 28-21-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 42.5

This has been a pretty reliable under spot for both teams over the past few years and the Titans will likely be without Will Levis, who did offer a little bit of explosiveness for this Tennessee offense. Seattle will also be making a cross-country trek on a short week, so I think this is a good spot for both teams to take the under.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers - Sunday, December 24 - 4:05PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -1; O/U 43.5

Jaguars trends:

Previous 10 road games: 8-2 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
Previous 13 non-conference games: 3-10 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 27 games following a loss: 10-17 ATS
Previous 33 non-divisional games: 14-19 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 8-11-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 35 non-divisional games: 15-19-1 ATS
Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 24-30-3 ATS

Best bet - TB +1

Something is broken with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars right now, as they keep getting bad break after bad break. I don't think that bodes well for them going to Tampa Bay to take on a Buccaneers squad that seems to be finding their stride just in time for this late season playoff push.

Cowboys @ Dolphins - Sunday, December 24 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -1.5; O/U 51.5

Cowboys trends:

Previous 13 games following a loss: 12-1 ATS
Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 34 non-divisional games: 20-14 ATS
Mike McCarthy (Career): 149-113-6 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 14-6 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 26 games following a win: 16-10 ATS
Mike McDaniel as a favorite (Career): 12-8 ATS

Best bet: DAL +1.5

I think this is a great bounce-back spot for this Dallas team that should be pretty embarrassed after their performance in Buffalo, and I will keep fading Miami against quality teams until they prove they can beat a team with a winning record.

Cardinals @ Bears - Sunday, December 24 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CHI -4; O/U 44

Cardinals trends:

Previous 20 road games: 12-7-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS
Previous 28 games following a loss: 15-13 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 20-11 ATS

Bears trends:

Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-6-1 ATS
Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 6-12-2 ATS
Previous 31 games following a loss: 12-16-3 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 12-16-3 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 11-21-1 ATS
Matt Eberflus as a favorite (Career): 0-4 ATS

Best bet: ARI +4

This Bears team absolutely cannot be trusted as a favorite this large, evident by Matt Eberflus' 0% ATS mark as a favorite. I'll take the points with the Cardinals in a game that I could definitely see them winning outright.

Patriots @ Broncos - Sunday, December 24 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DEN -6.5; O/U 34

Patriots trends:

Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 4-15-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 4-15-1 ATS
Previous 25 games following a loss: 11-13-1 ATS
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 13-17-2 ATS
Previous 34 conference games: 14-18-2 ATS

Broncos trends:

Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 5-14-1 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 27 games following a loss: 12-14-1 ATS
Previous 32 non-divisional games: 13-18-1 ATS
Previous 33 conference games: 13-20 ATS
Sean Payton (Career): 138-114-3 ATS

Best bet: NE +6.5

The good vibes that came with the Broncos five-game winning streak have subsided, culminating in a beatdown at the hands of Detroit on Saturday night. Though the Patriots certainly aren't good, I think getting nearly a touchdown with a total this low against a team that was running hot on turnover luck is too many points.

Raiders @ Chiefs - Monday, December 25 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -10; O/U 41.5

Raiders trends:

Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 2-6-1 ATS
Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 16 divisional games: 9-7 ATS
Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Antonio Pierce (Career): 3-1-1 ATS

Chiefs trends:

Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 3-5-1 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 15-5 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 14-6 to the Under
Previous 20 games vs Las Vegas: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 38 games following a win: 17-20-1 ATS

Best bet - Over 41.5

Though both of these teams have been relatively under-heavy teams in recent years, matchups between the Chiefs and the Raiders have tended to go over, including an over in Las Vegas earlier this season. Vegas showed the ability to put up 60+ points this past week and it would behoove Kansas City to find an offensive groove before the playoffs, so I'll take this game to go over the point total.

Giants @ Eagles - Monday, December 25 - 4:30 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -10.5; O/U 43.5

Giants trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 to the Under
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-6-1 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 27 games following a loss: 15-12 ATS
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 15-9-1 ATS

Eagles trends:

Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 4-6 ATS
Previous 17 divisional games: 6-9-2 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 16-4 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 12-6-2 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 35 games following a win: 18-14-3 ATS

Best bet: NYG +10.5

For whatever reason, the Sirianni regime hasn't been all that successful covering spreads within the division and Brian Daboll has shown the ability to get the most out of the talent that's available to him. I'll back the Giants to cover this large spread against an Eagles team that just isn't up to the standard that they set last year.

Ravens @ 49ers - Monday, December 25 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -5.5; O/U 46

Ravens trends:

Previous 14 non-conference games: 8-6 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 16-3-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 15-4-1 ATS
Previous 28 games following a win: 11-16-1 ATS
Previous 31 non-divisional games: 17-13-1 ATS
John Harbaugh as an underdog (Career): 45-30-3 ATS

49ers trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS; 12-7-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 ATS
Previous 35 non-divisional games: 20-15 ATS
Previous 37 games following a win: 24-13 ATS

Best bet: SF -5.5

This is a pretty large spread against the current No. 1 seed in the AFC, but I think it's absolutely warranted. The 49ers are an absolute juggernaut, and I want absolutely no part of fading them at their current form.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

Navigate