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NFL Week 16 Early Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The playoff picture is starting to take shape but there is still a lot of uncertainty, especially for the wildcard spots. These next couple weeks teams will be looking to get their momentum rolling into the playoffs with the hopes of a run to the Super Bowl.

Each of Week 16 NFL Early Week Parlay legs features an 8-6 AFC team trying to fight their way into a playoff spot. Find out below which lines stand out before they start to move for Week 16.

Early NFL Week 16 Best Bets

All wagers are 1 unit | Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

All year the Cleveland Browns looked like they were a complete team that only needed some competent play at the quarterback position to win some games. After injuries and bad play, the Browns are on to their fourth quarterback, Joe Flacco, who was signed off the street as a free agent.

Under the former Super Bowl-winning quarterback the Browns are finally getting some competent play from the quarterback position. The Browns are 2-1 with Flacco starting including winning their last two. I am buying into Flacco being able to do enough to let the Cleveland defense win games.

The Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud have been one of the best stories of the year. With a great rookie class, some second-year leaps, and a rookie coach who has a real shot at coach of the year they are very easy to cheer for. Injuries may just be too much for them to continue their push for the playoffs. Stroud missed Week 15 with a concussion and his number one target Tank Dell is out for the rest of the season. His number two target Nico Collins missed Week 15 and is questionable this week against Cleveland.

With the injuries for Houston and Cleveland rallying behind Joe Flacco, I like the Browns to win this week.

Leg 1: Browns Moneyline (+120)

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons

The number being set at 44.5 looks like the oddsmakers are just using averages on this one. The Falcons and Colts are scoring an average of a combined 43 points scored per game, and are allowing a combined average of 44.36 points per game this year.

I just don't have much faith in the Atlanta Falcons scoring many points. They haven't scored over 28 points in any game this year and are averaging a mere 18.5 points per game. Arthur Smith looks like he is purposely trying to win games as ugly as possible. Bijan Robinson only had 7 carries this week and no pass-catcher had more than 3 targets. This line could get bet down throughout the week so I plan to bet this one early.

These are the two most likely game scripts I see for this matchup: A low-scoring game where one team wins by a field goal, or Indianapolis wins by two scores. Either way, I like the under 44.5 points for this game.

Leg 2: Under 44,5 Total Points (-115)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These two teams are coming into Week 16 off of opposite results in Week 15. Baker Mayfield was the first non-Packer quarterback to have a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field and the Buccaneers won convincingly over Green Bay. Trevor Lawrence went into concussion protocol after a game where the Jaguars lost convincingly to the Baltimore Ravens.

I'm not trying to take away anything from Mayfield's performance, but, Joe Barry and the Packers have a habit of giving up career performances for mediocre quarterbacks. In Week 14 Tommy Devito had a 113.9 passer rating and wasn't sacked once against the Packers’ defense. When facing the New Orleans Saints defense in Week 15 he was sacked seven times and his passer rating dropped to 72.8.

I like the Jacksonville Jaguars, with their back against the wall in a tight AFC South race, to end their three-game losing streak.

Leg 3: Jaguars Moneyline (-108)

Parlay Odds: (+692)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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