NFL Week 16 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 16!
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NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins led the Bengals in targets and yards with 82 yards on eight targets. He also caught a touchdown in that game. The Browns have struggled to defend wide receivers this season. They allow 212.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the league, but allow 154.1 yards per game to wide receivers. That is the ninth-most in the league. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be in store for another big game, but there is more value on Higgins to score first.
Pick: Tee Higgins (+850 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
The Giants allow the second-most rushing yards per game, 143.7 per game. The Falcons have moved on from Kirk Cousins and will start their rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., this week. I expect Robinson to be busy again. He averages 23.3 rushing attempts per game since their week 12 bye. He could also be a safety valve for his rookie quarterback this week, which gives him a great chance to find the end zone first.
Pick: Bijan Robinson (+280 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
David Montgomery avoided a season-ending injury but cannot return until the postseason. Jahmyr Gibbs should be unleashed against the Bears. They are a run-funnel, allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game and 217.8 passing yards per game. He only had eight carries last game for 31 yards but caught five of seven passes for 83 yards and scored a touchdown through the air and ground. The game script should favor him this week against the struggling Bears.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs (+290 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have struggled at times, stopping quarterbacks in the rushing game. They have allowed three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks since week eight, to Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, and Jalen Hurts. Murray averages 7.2 yards per rush attempt this season and has scored four times. I expect the ground game to be the main source of offense for the Cardinals. The Panthers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per game this season. They allow 173 rushing yards per game, with 218.7 allowed per game in their last three games. Murray is a good contrarian option to James Conner in this matchup.
Pick: Kyler Murray (+1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor is averaging 20.6 rushing attempts per game in their last five games. He has hit the century mark in two of those games and was four yards shy in one. He is the catalyst of this offense, and it goes as he goes. The Titans have been trashed on the ground in their last three games, allowing 146.3, which is tied for 30th in that span. Taylor should have room to run this week as the Colts fight to make the playoffs.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor (+425 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
Cooper Kupp did not catch a pass on three targets last week against the 49ers. The Rams' offense only scored 12 points in the victory, played in a downpour. Kupp is one of the better-blocking receivers in the league, so it is no surprise he still played 85% of the snaps. The weather changed the entire game plan, but it should be business as usual for the Rams. Kupp averages 9.4 targets per game and should be needed. The Jets are scoring more than usual lately, with 26.3 points per game in their last three games.
Pick: Cooper Kupp (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Barkley has scored the first touchdown four times this season. +400 is an incredible price for him to score first. The Eagles' passing attack improved last week, but that is not enough to deter me from taking Barkley. He has run for 1,688 yards this season with an average of 5.9 per attempt. The Commanders rank 25th in DVOA and are worse against the run. Barkley should take advantage early as the Eagles come for the NFC's top seed.
Pick: Saquon Barkley (+400 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks will likely have Geno Smith under center, but he is playing hurt. Both Seattle running backs were nonparticipants in practice, and the offense could be stagnant. The Vikings are hot right now. They averaged 31.7 points per game in their last three games, and Addison has been a huge part. He stretches the field for this team, averaging 15.1 yards per reception. He averages 8.8 targets per game over his last five games, with five touchdowns in that span. He should play his role well against the Seahawks and catch a few deep passes.
Pick: Jordan Addison (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are scoring 18.7 points per game over their last three games, and the Bills sit at 41.7 in that span. It would be hard to justify taking a Patriot this week. Kincaid returned last week and received a 20.6% target share. The Patriots are weak against the tight-end position. They allow 7.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 53.2 yards per game to the position. Kincaid can use this game to get going before the postseason.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid (+1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
Brian Thomas Jr. is hot right now, and I will continue to bet on him. He is averaging 12 targets per game over his last three, with three touchdowns. The Raiders allow the eight-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Thomas should have another massive game. The matchup is great, and the target share is growing as Mac Jones becomes more comfortable with Thomas. Keep riding the hot hand in this matchup.
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. (+850 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Jennings has been kind to us this season. He has scored first twice for the 49ers. He averages 7.3 targets per game, which leads the team. He is the most reliable target for the 49ers but is still not treated that way. The Dolphins have an average passing defense, allowing 205 passing yards per game. That number has been inflated to 232.3 over their last three games. Jennings should have room to operate, especially if they key on George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr.
Pick: Jauan Jennings (+1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)