NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Trent Conner |
Dec 22, 2023

Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 16!

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NFL Week 16 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans

Tyler Lockett

Odds: +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Lockett has not scored since Week 10 but has a fantastic matchup this week. The Titans allow 226.4 passing yards per game and struggle against the deep ball. He averages 7.3 targets per game, and Geno Smith will be back this week. Lockett only caught three out of nine targets last week, and Drew Lock could not connect with him on a deep ball. Lockett should have more success with Smith in a favorable matchup this week.

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson

Odds: +550 via Caesars Sportsbook

The Falcons' utilization of their star players is the biggest mystery in the NFL. Robinson only had eight touches last week, Tyler Allgeier had 15, and Cordarrelle Patterson had six, including a TD with Robinson as the lead blocker. The Colts allow 127.4 rushing yards per game and 16 total TDs to the running back position. The Falcons have the third-highest rushing play percentage (48.73%) in the league and should start pounding the rock immediately. No one knows who will get the TD, but Robinson has the best chance of housing one on any touch.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

David Njoku

Odds: +1200 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Njoku has had a couple of monster games with Joe Flacco. His target share has increased each week since Flacco took over as starter. He has 16 receptions for 195 yards and three touchdowns in the past two weeks on 22 targets. He also has 19 red zone targets this season, third among tight ends. The Texans have allowed 62.5 receiving yards to the tight end position each week but have only allowed four total TDs to the position. Njoku is forming a great chemistry with Flacco, which is worth tailing.

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers

Jordan Love

Odds: +2200 via Caesars Sportsbook

The Packers have some injury concerns, so all players are not available for this market. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were both limited participants on Thursday. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson have not practiced all week. The Panthers are bad against the run, but the Packers have been less than stellar recently. Jordan Love has not been the most mobile quarterback this season, but the matchup and circumstances may make him move more. The Panthers have a great pass defense because their run defense is atrocious. Love does not have all his weapons this week, and the ground game may not be there. Love is a solid longshot to take this week.

Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

Chris Rodriguez

Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Trevor Siemian could draw the start for injured Zach Wilson (concussion) this week, and he has not thrown a TD through his two games played. The game environment is not great, but Rodriguez could be the best value. Brian Robinson Jr. has not practiced this week and has not played since week 13. He has had two weeks to deal with his hamstring injury and does not look prepared to play yet. Rodriguez carried the ball 10 times last week, and Antonio Gibson had nine touches. Rodriguez seems to have slid into Robinson's role, which has the best matchup this week. The Jets have allowed three TDs on the ground in the past two weeks and remain a top pass defense. Rodriguez is the best player in this low-total game.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson

Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Jefferson is as low as +700 at other sportsbooks, which makes this a great value. He has not found the end zone since returning, but he had a solid game last week when Nick Mullens replaced Joshua Dobbs as starter. Mullens was effective last week and targeted Jefferson 10 times. He caught seven of them for 84 yards. The Lion's defense struggles against defending wideouts, as they have allowed 16 receiving TDs to wide receivers this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Godwin

Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Godwin has had 10 or more targets for consecutive games and topped 150 yards last week. He only has two TDs this season, but the target uptick is promising. The team has also been talking about getting him more involved, and it looks like the talk was not cheap. The Jaguars allow 256.6 passing yards per game, and last week was the first week of the season they did not allow a touchdown to a wide receiver. Godwin is as low as +850 on one sportsbook, so this is a great price for a rising player.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Trey McBride

Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook

McBride has been a target monster since taking over as the starting tight end. He averages 6.1 targets per game but is averaging 9.1 since week eight. The best matchup in this game is probably against the Cardinals' weak run defense, but the Bears' backfield is a mystery. No one is playing consistent snaps, and they struggled last week against the Browns. McBride has the next-best matchup. McBride is +800 on another sportsbook, so it is a massive value for a high-usage player.

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert

Odds: +600 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Mostert has been the clear-cut leadback for the Dolphins since De'Von Achane returned from injury. Mostert has scored seven TDs in the past four weeks and seems to be a touchdown magnet. Mostert has 44 red zone rushing attempts this season and five targets. The Cowboys have allowed 117.4 rushing yards per game and are coming off a loss to the Bills, where they had 266 team rushing yards. Mostert is a safe play this week with his 20 total TDs this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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