NFL Week 16 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 16.
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Week 16 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky | Greer |
| NYJ | JAC | -1 | NYJ | JAX | JAC | NYJ | JAX | NYJ |
| BAL | ATL | -7.5 | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | BAL | ATL |
| CAR | DET | 2.5 | CAR | DET | CAR | CAR | DET | DET |
| CHI | BUF | 9 | CHI | BUF | BUF | CHI | BUF | CHI |
| CLE | NO | -2.5 | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE |
| KC | SEA | -9.5 | KC | KC | KC | SEA | SEA | KC |
| MIN | NYG | -3.5 | NYG | MIN | MIN | NYG | NYG | MIN |
| NE | CIN | 3.5 | CIN | NE | CIN | CIN | CIN | NE |
| TEN | HOU | -5 | TEN | TEN | TEN | TEN | HOU | TEN |
| SF | WAS | -7 | SF | SF | WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS |
| DAL | PHI | -5 | PHI | PHI | DAL | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| PIT | LV | -3 | PIT | LV | LV | LV | PIT | KLV |
| MIA | GB | -4 | MIA | MIA | MIA | GB | MIA | MIA |
| LAR | DEN | 2.5 | LAR | LAR | LAR | DEN | DEN | LAR |
| ARI | TB | 6.5 | ARI | ARI | TB | TB | TB | TB |
| IND | LAC | 4 | IND | IND | LAC | IND | LAC | LAC |
MIN -3.5 vs. NYG
The key matchup in this game is WR Justin Jefferson and TE T.J. Hockenson vs. the Giants pass defense. Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign for the Vikings, Jefferson has averaged 101.5 yards on 9.9 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.3 yards per target. He’s No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,639 yards receiving in his first three seasons, and he’s No. 1 in the league this year with 111 receptions overall and 64, 26, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report). The Giants have been without No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee) since Week 11, and he didn’t practice on Tuesday. I’m highly doubtful he plays, and without him the Giants don’t have a corner who can hang with Jefferson. Similarly, the Giants are without S Xavier McKinney (hand, IR) — and they’re No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (35.8%). Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, TE T.J. Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (57), receptions (39) and yards receiving (335). Like Jefferson, Hockenson should be able to exploit the Giants pass defense. With this edge, the Vikings should be able to outscore the Giants by more than a field goal.
– Matthew Freedman
LV +2.5 @ PIT
These teams have very similar profiles — both are 6-8, both have average offenses led by the run, and both have below-average defenses that especially struggle against the pass. The main difference between these two equal opponents, in my eyes, is the quarterback position. Despite the slow start, Derek Carr is now up to 0.08 EPA/Play, while Pickett is currently sitting at -0.01. Furthermore, Pickett is coming back from his second concussion of the year, which may alter the Steelers’ playcalling as they strive to keep him more protected. It should be a close game, but I do think the Raiders will win outright, which makes 2.5 appealing.
– Robby Greer
DET -2.5 @ CAR
Detroit’s offense is one of the best in the NFL. Seriously. Since Week 10, the only offense that’s generated more expected points is the Kansas City Chiefs. The only teams that have scored more actual points are the Eagles and Cowboys. This team has been red hot, averaging 28 points per game over their 6-1 streak. The concern becomes their defense, but the Carolina Panthers have failed to do much with Sam Darnold at the helm. Even if this team manages to put up 21+ points, the Lions should be able to win with their elite offense by more than a field goal.
– Ben Wolbransky
CIN -3.5 @ NE
The Patriots’ playoff chances took a massive hit after a collapse in Las Vegas last week. They return home to face the Bengals, who have won six in a row and eight of their last nine games. The Bengals’ average margin of victory on the current winning streak is 9.8 points. They are averaging 30.5 ppg during that span as well. The Patriots’ defense has kept them in contention this season, but it’d be difficult to see them keeping a fully healthy Bengals offense within three points this week.
– Dylan Santora
IND +4.5 vs. LAC
The Colts have decided to hand the reigns to former Super Bowl MVP-winning MVP Nick Foles for the remainder of the season, who should be considered an upgrade compared to the abysmal QB play that the Colts have been dealing with in 2022. Despite their historic collapse last week, the Colts have shown some nice flashes under the leadership of Jeff Saturday, covering 3 out of 5 games and narrowly missing out on victories against the NFC’s top 2 seeds. In the Chargers 4 road wins this year, the only victory that would have covered this spread came against the lowly Texans. The Colts have the better defense in this matchup, ranking better than the Chargers in passing and rushing YPA and allowing fewer points per possession. I believe that the QB change will give the Colts offense some much-needed juice and allow them to stay within this number against a Chargers team who always seems to be involved in close games.
– Austin MacMillan
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Week 16 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Santora | MacMillan | Wolbransky |
| NYJ | JAC | 38 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| BAL | ATL | 37.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Over |
| CAR | DET | 44 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Over |
| CHI | BUF | 40 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| CLE | NO | 32 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| KC | SEA | 48.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| MIN | NYG | 48 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| NE | CIN | 41.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| TEN | HOU | 37 | Over | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| SF | WAS | 39.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under |
| DAL | PHI | 46 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| PIT | LV | 39.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| MIA | GB | 49.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| LAR | DEN | 36.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| ARI | TB | 41 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| IND | LAC | 46.5 | Over | Over | Under | Over | Under |
BUF @ CHI over 40
There was some concern last week regarding the Chicago Bears offense, given the multitude of injuries the team has at the WR position. Still, the Bears managed to put up 20 points against a top defense in the NFL, proving the offensive identity of this team relies on Justin Fields’ ability to make plays on the ground. Since week 10, the Bills defense has been nothing but average, allowing 22 points per game and the 11th worst in expected points. The Bills offense, however, is still considered elite and could put up 30+ easily against this porous Bears D. 40 points is too low for two elite offenses (or one elite offense, and the other with Justin Fields). There is some concern about the weather in this game, but these two teams should have no problem moving the ball on the ground.
– Ben Wolbransky
HOU @ TEN Under 37
With QB Ryan Tannehill reported done for the season due to an ankle injury, Malik Willis would take over for the Titans at QB. Willis’ first start came in Houston back in Week 8. He attempted 10 passes in that start as the Titans ran Derrick Henry 32 times for 219 yards in a 17 – 10 victory. The game plan should not be much different this week against the bottom-ranked rush defense of the Texans
– Dylan Santora
ATL @ BAL Under 35.5
This matchup features two of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, both of which rank in the top 7 in rushing attempts. We saw Desmond Ridder look pretty poor in his first NFL action in a dome last week, and the Ravens have only averaged 9.7 PPG since Tyler Huntley filled in for the injured Lamar Jackson, who seems unlikely to return this week. Add in the freezing temperatures and the possibility of wind that will come with this weekend’s winter storm, and I think that gives these teams incentive to run the ball even more than they already do. I expect this game to be played on the ground, keeping the clock moving non-stop and limiting the number of possessions and total points that will be scored.
– Austin MacMillan
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