NFL Week 16 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 16 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| IND | ATL | 2 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0 |
| GB | CAR | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 36 | 37.5 | 1.5 |
| ARI | CHI | -4 | -4 | 0 | 44.5 | 43 | -1.5 |
| NE | DEN | -6 | -7 | -1 | 36.5 | 34 | -2.5 |
| CLE | HOU | -2.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 42 | 40 | -2 |
| LV | KC | -10 | -10 | 0 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
| BUF | LAC | 14 | 12.5 | -1.5 | 42.5 | 44 | 1.5 |
| NO | LAR | -4 | -4 | 0 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 1 |
| DAL | MIA | -1.5 | -1 | 0.5 | 51 | 50 | -1 |
| DET | MIN | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 | 47 | 47.5 | 0.5 |
| WAS | NYJ | -3 | -3 | 0 | 38 | 37 | -1 |
| NYG | PHI | -10.5 | -13.5 | -3 | 43.5 | 43 | -0.5 |
| CIN | PIT | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 39 | 38 | -1 |
| BAL | SF | -5 | -5 | 0 | 45.5 | 47 | 1.5 |
| JAX | TB | 2 | -2 | -4 | 45 | 41 | -4 |
| SEA | TEN | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 16 Spread Movement Analysis
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons: +2 ?' -2.5
The line movement in the Falcons favor is surprising given the positive injury updates on the Colts side. Both running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Pittman practiced in full as of Thursday and are looking likely to play. The Colts have won five of their past six games as well. Meanwhile, the Falcons are turning back to veteran quarterback Taylor Heinicke after they lost to the previously one-win Carolina Panthers. The line movement indicates this is a positive move for the Falcons, who are still alive at 6-8 in the NFC South.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: -2.5 ?' +3
The swing in this matchup can be directly attributed to quarterback C.J. Stroud likely being out with a concussion for the second week in a row. The Texans were able to squeeze out a win against the Tennessee Titans on the road with Case Keenum starting, but they will face a tougher challenge against the Cleveland Browns this week. Despite multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the Browns were able to generate consistent pressure against the Chicago Bears this past week. To add on, Browns’ quarterback Joe Flacco continues to look comfortable since being signed, leading a multi-touchdown comeback over the Bears last week, while throwing for nearly 400 yards.
NFL Week 16 Total Movement Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 45 ?' 41
The drop in total likely means that bettors do not believe quarterback Trevor Lawrence will clear concussion protocol by Sunday. C.J. Beathard would start in his place. Even with Lawrence starting, the Jags have lost the past three games. Prior to that, they were in position to potentially have the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are now fighting to make the playoffs. The Bucs are coming off a big win in Green Bay in one of quarterback Baker Mayfield’s best performances of his career. Mayfield has the Bucs in good position to win the NFC South and will have a chance at a fourth win in a row.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 36.5 ?' 34
The Broncos looked more like the team that started 1-5 versus the team that had won six of their past seven heading into Detroit this past week. They are still alive in a crowded AFC wild card chase, but the blowout loss in Detroit significantly affected their chances. They get a chance to bounce back against a bad Patriots team at home in the lowest total game of the week. The further drop could be due to the bad offenses, especially on New Englands side. The Patriots have scored more than 17 points once in the last seven weeks.
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