NFL Week 16 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as sportsbooks collect more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
- NFL Player Prop Bets
- NFL PrizePicks Player Predictions
- NFL Consensus Odds
- NFL Expert Game Predictions
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Week 16 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| HOU | KC | 2.5 | -3.5 | 6 | 39.5 | 41.5 | 2 |
| PIT | BAL | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 | 46.5 | 45 | -1.5 |
| CLE | CIN | -7 | -7.5 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 47 | -1.5 |
| DET | CHI | 7 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 45.5 | 48 | 2.5 |
| AZ | CAR | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 47 | 47 | 0 |
| LAR | NYJ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
| PHI | WAS | 4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1 |
| NYG | ATL | -9.5 | -9 | 0.5 | 41.5 | 42 | 0.5 |
| TEN | IND | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
| MIN | SEA | 3.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 43 | 42.5 | -0.5 |
| NE | BUF | -14 | -14 | 0 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
| JAX | LV | -1 | -1 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| SF | MIA | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 46.5 | 44.5 | -2 |
| TB | DAL | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 47.5 | 48.5 | 1 |
| NO | GB | -13.5 | -14 | 0.5 | 42 | 42.5 | 0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 16 Spread Movement Analysis
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2.5 -> -3.5
When Patrick Mahomes left last week’s win over Cleveland and was diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, the Chiefs immediately opened up as home underdogs to the Texans with the prospect that Carson Wentz would be under center. However, as soon as Mahomes was able to be a full participant in practice as early as Wednesday, the line quickly jumped the fence.
Upon jumping the fence, Kansas City initially was a 2.5-point home favorite. But there is plenty of belief among the betting public that Mahomes will play, as the line has since moved through the key number of three to -3.5. Those who believe Mahomes will play will likely not get a better number than what is currently offered, as this line would surely move more in Kansas City’s favor if and when Mahomes is officially declared active.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: -9.5 -> -9
This half-point line movement may not be the most noteworthy of the week compared to the way the odds have fluctuated in other games, but there is a lot of significance to the line movement given the news surrounding this game.
Atlanta is benching Kirk Cousins this week in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. Oddsmakers initially ticked the Falcons’ spread down some after the news.
After opening at -9.5, Atlanta briefly reached the key number of -10. From there, the line plummeted to -8.5 and has since spiked back and forth with big one-point swings from 8.5 to 9.5. The best guess is that sharps are the ones backing the Giants and driving the line to the lower number, while the public is more likely to back the favorites against a team that may wind up with the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
NFL Week 16 Total Movement Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 46.5 -> 45
The least surprising line move regarding totals in Week 16 arguably comes from this AFC North matchup on Saturday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.
Over the last 20 years in this rivalry, when the total is 45 or higher, the under has finished 7-2. The Steelers and Ravens have also cashed the under in eight straight meetings, including their Week 11 clash when Pittsburgh won 18-16 despite not scoring a touchdown.
This line continually crept down from 46.5 until it hit a week-long low of 44.5, as that is where over backers finally weighed in.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 48.5 -> 47
One of the more glaringly obvious reactions to a quarterback change happened in the other AFC North rivalry game this week, which caused the under to plummet.
After opening at 48.5, the total initially rose to 49.5 on two separate occasions. However, once the news broke that the Browns were making a switch at quarterback from Jameis Winston to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the total free fell three points from 49.5 to 46.5. In Thompson-Robinson’s previous three career starts, Cleveland scored 28 total points.
There is still some belief, at least in the Cincinnati offense, to score points, as the total has since ticked back up to 47. But given how far the total fell after the quarterback news, I would not expect the total to keep rising, as 47 will likely be the plateau before kickoff.
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>