NFL Week 16 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Kurt Blakeway |
Dec 19, 2023

While the presents under the tree are the stars of Christmas day, this year may be different. The NFL schedule features games every day over the Christmas weekend. It starts with the weekly Thursday night game between the Saints and Rams, then we have two games on Saturday, 10 on Sunday and three on Christmas Day.

As always, we keep tabs on all the NFL lines all season, dissecting any significant move that may have happened.

Letâ€™s take a look at Week 16.

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NFL Week 16 Line Movement

(Odds and lines courtesy Caesars Sportsbook)

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Open: Bills -14
Current: Bills -11

After back-to-back impressive wins, the Bills reinserted themselves as a legit Super Bowl contender. On the other hand, the Chargers were just embarrassed on Primetime and fired their GM and Head Coach.

Despite both teams going in opposite directions, we have seen early money on the Chargers as this line dropped from 14 to 11 as of Tuesday morning.

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

Open: Texans -2
Current: Texans -2.5

Both teams are coming off a come-from-behind win and look to cement their spot into the AFC playoff picture.

The Texans opened as two-point home favorites and should have C.J. Stroud back under center this week. It seems the market is trying to get ahead of the injury updates, pushing this line to 2.5 in most places.

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers

Open: Packers -4
Current: Packers -5

Despite Green Bay losing to Tampa Bay at home, the market is still backing the Packers early on as they face a two-win Panthers team.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Open: PK
Current: Dolphins -1.5

After the Bills crushed the Cowboys and Miami shut out the Dolphins 30-0, it is no surprise they received heavy money early on, moving this line to 1.5.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Open: Broncos -5.5
Current: Broncos -6.5

The Broncos will need the extra day of rest after getting embarrassed in Detroit last week. Despite getting blown out early, money has come in on Denver as the market has no faith in the stumbling Patriots.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Open: Chiefs -10
Current: Chiefs -10.5

Our first Christmas Day game features an AFC West rivalry. After beating the Chargers 63-21. The market still favors the Chiefs as this line has moved up a half a point, and in some spots, this has reached 11.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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