NFL Week 16 Odds & Picks: Best Early Bets (2024)
We’ve had a nice little run over the last two weeks with our best early bets. In Week 14 and Week 15, we earned mini sweeps and are now 4-0 with our previous four bets.
Let’s keep that momentum going with the best early bets for Week 16.
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NFL Top Early Week Picks (Week 16)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is having a career year with the Bengals. He’s thrown for 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions while adding nearly 4,000 yards in the air.
He’ll take on a Browns defense this weekend, allowing nearly 26 points per game. The Browns have allowed at least 20 points in 11 consecutive games.
Ultimately, the Bengals are 7-point home favorites. The Browns will likely struggle defensively, as they have all year.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have given up nearly 28 points per game. Cincinnati made some plays against the Titans last weekend but still allowed 27 points in a 10-point win. This defense has also allowed 20+ points in six straight games.
It’s unclear whether Jameis Winston or Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start. Whoever starts should have some success against this Bengals defense.
Additionally, Nick Chubb broke his foot. But he’s been a non-factor most of the season anyway. Jerome Ford will be fine as the No. 1 running back option in this one, especially since the Bengals have allowed more than 130 rushing yards per game this season.
Let’s back the over.
Pick: Over 49.5 Points (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
We’ve got a couple of solid 6-8 teams playing each other. Ultimately, the 49ers couldn’t find the end zone against a resurgent Rams defense. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa struggled badly with the Dolphins, losing 20-12 to the Texans.
Both teams combined for just 20 points in Week 15, each losing.
Miami is way worse, statistically. The Dolphins have scored 20.31 points per game and allowed 22.46 points per game. Their defense has been terrible at tackling and the secondary is by far one of the worst in the NFL.
I’d like to think Brock Purdy can capitalize against this Dolphins defense. Miami is better at stopping the run, allowing only 105.62 yards per game on the ground. With the 49ers down to their third running back, don’t be surprised if Miami gets stops in the run game. But this matchup is on Purdy’s shoulders. The 49ers can’t afford another loss if they want to make the playoffs.
That said, the offense has earned nearly 232 yards in the air and 133.50 yards on the ground per game. They’ve been way more consistent than Miami’s offense throughout the season. On defense, the 49ers have an exciting secondary. The run defense has been inconsistent, but the 49ers have allowed just 181 yards in the air. The 49ers will be fine if they can prevent Tagovailoa from making plays down the field to Tyreek Hil.
Grab San Francisco and the Moneyline on the road.
Pick: 49ers Moneyline (+120)