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NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

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As Week 16 approaches, divisional pictures and playoff seeding are starting to come into focus, but there still remains a ton of flux in the battle for the final Wild Card spots in each conference.

Today's future bets will address just that, with some correlated future plays with how I see each conference shaking out. These numbers aren't super long, but I didn't like the value I was seeing in any division/conference/Super Bowl numbers at the moment. I also don't think much value will be lost from those markets prior to the playoffs beginning when we will have the bracket in front of us.

If you disagree with some of my logic, you can always use the information to pivot and make a derivative bet of your own.

Either way, here are three wagers that I would make right now in Week 16 on teams to make or miss the playoffs:

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NFL Week 16: Best Futures Bets

NFC

The NFC Wild Card race has essentially come down to four teams for just two spots: the Vikings, Rams, Seahawks and either the Saints or Buccaneers.

I'll start with the Vikings’ side and explain why I see them on the outside looking in. Obviously, the injury to Kirk Cousins was catastrophic for this team. Rookie QB Jaren Hall lasted one possession before getting a concussion. Joshua Dobbs turned from a massive success to unplayable, and Nick Mullens did everything in his power to make sure that the Vikings did not leave Cincinnati with a win in Week 15.

The Vikings also have the roughest remaining schedule of these teams by a mile, with two games remaining against the Lions and a home game against a Packers team that has displayed a high ceiling at times this season. I think it's a tall task asking a backup QB to win two of those three games. I see the Vikings finishing at 8-9 and missing the postseason.

Regarding the NFC South, both the Buccaneers and Saints are underdogs in their matchups this week against the Jaguars and Rams, respectively, before playing each other in Tampa Bay in Week 17. I see that as a de facto playoff game, with the winner taking a stranglehold on the division and the loser potentially picking up their second consecutive loss. For that reason, I also believe that the loser of that game finishes 8-9 and misses out. I don't have the Saints or Buccaneers included in the future because I would rather play that game straight up than play it now, still two weeks away.

With two of the four teams out of the way, that leaves the Seahawks, who just did themselves a great service by taking down the Eagles on Monday night, and the Rams. The Seahawks have the easiest remaining schedule of the group, with games against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Arizona on the schedule. I think they likely win at least two of those games, cementing their spot in the playoffs. Their price was a bit steep for my liking, though, so I settled on the Rams as the final Wild Card team, with plus money still in the market.

The Rams have a massive Thursday night showdown at home against the Saints, and Vegas indicates they think that the Rams (currently -4.5) will win that ballgame. They then play the Giants before a Week 18 matchup with the 49ers, who may have nothing to play for if they lock up the No. 1 seed before that matchup. I like the Rams to win two of those matchups, ending their season at 9-8 with a Wild Card spot.

AFC

With the crazy amounts of chaos in the AFC Wild Card race, books are choosing not to hang lines for certain teams, and the best available option for how I see this breaking down is a single play on the Colts to miss the playoffs.

The Browns currently hold the top Wild Card spot and have a one-game cushion on the rest of the 8-6 teams. With a game against the Jets remaining on their schedule, I think it's highly likely that they get to at least 10-7 to secure one of the three Wild Card spots. I also broke down in last week's article why I think the Bills will clinch a playoff spot (and potentially the division), so I'll go ahead and reserve a second Wild Card spot for either the Bills or the Dolphins, whoever does not win the AFC East.

That leaves just one more Wild Card spot for either the Bengals, Steelers, Broncos or one of the AFC South teams that does not win the division. The Broncos currently sit a game behind the 8-6 teams and have not done themselves any favors with tiebreakers, as they currently sit in the 11th seed behind everyone else. They have a favorable remaining schedule, but seeing as they need some chaos to happen in front of them, I will remove them from contention.

The Steelers have also played their way out of the playoffs, currently sitting at 7-7 with the toughest schedule remaining of the teams in the hunt, with games left against the Bengals, Ravens and Seahawks. I see them going 1-2 down the stretch at best, leaving them on the outside looking in.

The Bengals have really rallied with backup QB Jake Browning at the helm and have set themselves up with critical tiebreakers based on wins over Indianapolis and Buffalo. Still, their remaining schedule includes the Chiefs, Browns and Steelers, and they will likely be without Ja'Marr Chase for some of those games. I think their magic runs out, and so does Vegas, as their number currently sits around -250 to miss the playoff.

That leaves the trio of 8-6 AFC South teams, one to win the division, one to clinch the final Wild Card spot and one to miss the playoffs entirely. The Jaguars have the easiest schedule of the three and currently have the upper hand in tie-breaking scenarios, so I think it's far more likely than not that they are responsible for one of those playoff spots. That leaves the Colts and the Texans and a Week 18 date in Indianapolis that I see as a de facto play-in game for the playoffs, whether for the division or the Wild Card.

Indianapolis got the better of Houston in their first matchup, but C.J. Stroud and the Texans have come a long way since then, and I favor them to get revenge in that second matchup. If you disagree with that notion, you could pivot and instead take the Texans to miss the playoffs at a juicer number.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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