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NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week, the Detroit Lions scored 42 points, easily clearing 34.5 points and giving us a +380 winner. This week, two quarterbacks face favorable matchups, while it may be easy to predict how many touchdowns will be scored in another game.

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 16 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 16 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Nick Mullens 350+ Passing Yards (+850)

In his first start with the Minnesota Vikings, Nick Mullens finished 26-33 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. That performance came with his team leading for almost the entire game.

After how the Lions looked last Saturday, there is no reason to think their offense won't have more success than the Vikings' offense on Sunday. However, that success will also make it so that Mullens needs to throw the ball for most of the game.

The Lions have the 18th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. While their pass defense is far from the worst, they have given up massive performances this season. With Mullens throwing the ball for most of the game as his team tries to keep up with the Lions, he may throw for over 350 yards and cash you a huge longshot winner.

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers To Score Exactly 2 Touchdowns (+475)

After rattling off back-to-back wins over the Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers have lost consecutive games to the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, dropping to 6-8. The defense has allowed 58 points in their two recent losses, but they should have a great rebound game on Sunday against the Panthers.

The Panthers have scored the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. They haven't scored a touchdown in either of their last two games, and they may not score one again on Sunday. Yet, despite how bad their offense is, their defense has been quite good this year. Last week, they allowed just seven points to the Atlanta Falcons, and they have the third-ranked pass defense in the league.

Because of the Panthers' play on both sides of the ball, one touchdown may be all the Packers need to win this game. But as the game starts to open up and the Packers hold a double-digit lead late, they will add a second touchdown to hit this prop.

Baker Mayfield Over 295.5 Passing Yards (+500)

Last week, Baker Mayfield exploded for 381 passing yards, and he faces a phenomenal matchup this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars have the fourth-worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 256.6 yards per game through the air.

Lamar Jackson threw for just 171 yards against the Jaguars last week, but a big part of the reason why he didn't throw for more is because he ran for 97. Even with that performance from Jackson, the Jaguars have still allowed 262.3 passing yards per game over their last three.

The Jaguars’ offense looked much better last week than the final score suggests. We expect them to get well into the 20s this week. After they score, Mayfield will easily move the ball against a secondary that can't stop anyone.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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