NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)

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It wasn’t a good or bad day for the underdog for Week 15’s Sunday games. Three of 12 games were won by the underdog outright, and another against the spread. With injuries and all the games with playoff implications, Week 16’s Sunday games have a number of solid underdog candidates.

Saturday’s doubleheader has a couple of solid candidates, but our focus here is on the Sunday games. Here are a few games we think the underdog could win, outright or against the spread.

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Best NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Giants (+8.5) vs. Falcons (-460)

If the Falcons played like they did during that brief stretch where Kirk Cousins looked like the Kirk Cousins Atlanta thought it was getting, the Giants wouldn’t have a prayer in this game. But they aren’t, of course. In fact, they are giving a rookie quarterback his first start in the NFL.

Now, if he lives up to his draft position, Michael Penix Jr. could smoke the Giants’ secondary for a huge rookie debut. It’s not like the Giants’ defense has been playing particularly well. But he is a rookie, and while Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are playing well, Anthony Richardson is not (and Nix had a slow start).

The Giants will return Drew Lock to quarterback. Although he hasn’t played well, the Giants were competitive in the two games he started.

Now, if Penix struggles and the Falcons lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, they’ll still have a great shot at winning. Why? Because there is no telling what Lock will get out of the Giants offense.

The Giants are not a good team, but the Falcons struggled against the Raiders. Penix Jr. could do fine, or he could struggle like rookie quarterbacks often do in their first start. However, things play out for the Falcons; I don’t see New York winning outright. But ATS? Absolutely.

Pick: Giants (+8.5)

Titans (+3.5) vs. Colts (-198)

If the Titans were still starting Will Levis at quarterback, I’d understand why the Colts are favored in this game. The Colts could focus on the running game with Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson and win. But the Titans have benched Levis for Mason Rudolph.

Rudolph is not an all-pro by any means, but he is an experienced NFL quarterback. He is definitely a much better passer than Richardson and has better skill position guys to work with than Richardson does.

All in all, expectations for this game should be low (O/U is 42.5). While the Colts are the home team, Richardson holds them back. Rudolph is not a star, either, but he is good enough to use the tools at his disposal to win the game.

Pick: Titans Moneyline (+3.5)

Jaguars (+106) vs. Raiders (-1.5)

Games like this have to be really tough for oddsmakers to set an opening line for. Both teams aren’t just bad; they are terrible. The Jaguars have the worst pass defense in the NFL, but  Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are a pretty effective pass rush duo.

Yards are a little harder to come by against the Raiders’ defense, but they both give up an average of 26.9 points per game.

Whether it’s Aidan O’Connell or Desmond Ridder at quarterback, expectations are low for the Raiders offense. However, Mac Jones has improved since taking over for an injured Trevor Lawrence. They had a shot at beating the Texans a few weeks ago, beat the Titans by not playing as poorly as Tennessee did, and played well (overall) in last week’s loss to the Jets.

Both teams are bad, but the Raiders are worse at the moment. The Jags have more going for them on offense than the Raiders do. It will not be pretty, but Jacksonville will win this game.

Pick: Jaguars Moneyline (+106)

Honorable Mentions

  • Eagles (-3.5) vs. Commanders (+152): Washington played the Eagles tight in the last game only to lose by seven. Now, Philly is playing a lot better on both sides of the ball than they did when these teams met earlier in the season. But Jayden Daniels has played well the last two weeks. This game will either be ugly and close or just relatively close.
  • Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Panthers (+180): After playing three consecutive good games vs. quality opponents, they struggled against the Cowboys last week. However, the Cardinals have lost three of their last four and have not been a good road team this season.