NFL Week 16 Pick’em Pool Advice, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Phil Wood |
Dec 20, 2023

NFL Week 16 features games across four different days.

Some key matchups include the New Orleans Saints vs. the Los Angeles Rams, the Cleveland Browns vs. the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the San Francisco 49ers. With a win over the Minnesota Vikings, the Detroit Lions can also wrap up their first division title since 1993.

Yet, there are so many evenly-matched teams competing this week that we're offering pick 'em advice on four games we haven't yet mentioned.

Here is our best NFL pick-em advice for Week 16.

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NFL Week 16 Pick'Em Pool Advice

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have dropped back-to-back games after handing the Carolina Panthers just their second win of the season. It was an ugly performance that saw the Falcons' offense muster just 204 yards of total offense. With how things are going, the Falcons are turning back to Taylor Heinicke this week.

Heinicke will have his work cut out for him against a team that has won five of their last six. The Colts' 30-13 victory over the Steelers in Week 15 was their first win by more than seven points since Nov. 5. Yet, even with these teams moving in opposite directions, the Falcons are slight favorites at home.

The Colts have the seventh-worst run defense in football. Though head coach Arthur Smith has been reluctant to run Bijan Robinson - he had just seven carries for 11 yards Sunday - the Falcons still have the ninth-best rushing attack in football. If the Falcons exploit their advantage, then it won't matter how good the Colts' offense plays.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, so this game doesn't matter much. However, it is still one of the most challenging games to pick a winner for.

Sam Howell was benched last week in the Commanders' 28-20 loss to the Rams. It's been announced that he will still start this week, but he will likely struggle against the second-ranked pass defense in football. Howell is seventh in the league in passing yards, but he's thrown for a combined 229 yards in the last two weeks.

Yet even with the Commanders losing five in a row and looking terrible during that span, the Jets aren't much better. They killed the Texans two weeks ago, but they've lost six of seven, and the offense has scored just 45 points in those six losses. The Commandersâ€™ pass defense is the worst in football, but the Jets' passing attack is so bad it won't make a difference on Sunday. Look for the Commanders to win a low-scoring game.

The Pick: Washington Commanders

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you're just looking at final scores, the Buccaneers are the right play for this game. They've won three games in a row and just beat the Green Bay Packers 34-20 at Lambeau Field. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have lost three in a row and fell 23-7 to the Ravens on Sunday night.

However, the Jaguars played much better than the final score from Sunday's game suggests. They consistently moved the ball, but poor clock management, turnovers and two missed field goals ultimately ended their upset bid. Yet, despite all the mistakes, the Jaguars trailed just 10-7 entering the fourth quarter.

Baker Mayfield will throw all over the Jaguars' secondary, but Trevor Lawrence will also have success against the Buccaneers' defense. The Bucs may have won three games in a row, but each has come against teams with losing records. The Jaguars are taking a step down in competition after a brutal four-game stretch.

The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

Some people are labeling this game the Fraud Bowl, as the Cowboys and Dolphins are a combined 1-6 against teams with winning records. The Cowboys are coming off a particularly ugly loss to the Buffalo Bills, where Josh Allen needed to throw the ball just 15 times for 94 yards for his team to earn the victory.

What is most concerning about last week's performance for the Cowboys is that they allowed 266 rushing yards. Their defenseâ€™s inability to stop the run kept Dak Prescott and the offense off the field for long stretches, resulting in 24:55 of possession and 195 total yards.

With the two-headed rushing attack of De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, the Dolphins have racked up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season. It's unlikely the Cowboys fix their problems against the run in one week. And, if they do sell out to stop the run, Tyreek Hill should be back this week. His connection with the NFL's leading passer, Tua Tagovailoa, will be enough to get the Dolphins the win.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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