NFL Week 16 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
This week, there are quite a few intriguing matchups that provide longshot potential. The Cincinnati Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives, as they take on Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Cleveland Browns. Elsewhere, Geno Smith will play through a knee injury against the Minnesota Vikings, and the Detroit Lions will look to fight through a slew of injuries against the Chicago Bears.
Here are the best longshot bets for Week 16 of the NFL season.
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Best NFL Week 16 Longshot Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals -23.5 (+509)
The Browns have decided to bench Jameis Winston and start Dorian Thompson-Robinson. That's great news for the Bengals and terrible news for the Browns. Though the Bengals have one of the worst passing defenses in football, Thompson-Robinson has never thrown for more than 200 yards in a game.
Thompson-Robinson has thrown 34 passes this season. He's completed just 15 of them. He has zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Two of those interceptions were thrown against the Bengals earlier this year when Deshaun Watson hurt his Achilles.
The Bengals haven't won a game by more than 17 points this season, but this one has a real chance to get ugly. The Bengals are averaging 28.5 points per game, which is the fifth-most in the league. The Browns have the seventh-worst scoring defense in football. With Thompson-Robinson unable to move the ball down the field, Joe Burrow and his offense are going to destroy a struggling Browns defense.
Geno Smith 300+ Passing Yards (+700)
Geno Smith injured his knee in the Seahawks' loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. While his health is certainly a concern, he says he's playing this week. If he's on the field, he has a chance for a massive day.
The Vikings are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game this season. Even after holding Caleb Williams to just 191 yards last week, the defense is still allowing 253.7 over its last three games. Kirk Cousins threw for over 340 yards against them two weeks ago. If the Seahawks fall behind in this game, Smith, who has already thrown for over 300 yards four times this season, may crush this number.
The biggest downside is that Smith hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards in five consecutive games. But those recent performances are why this price is so good. Getting this at +700 against a pass defense that gives up a lot of yards is shocking, even if Smith is banged up.
Detroit Lions Over 5.5 Touchdowns (+900)
Defensively, the Lions are banged up entering this week's matchup with the Bears. They also got bad news on the offensive side, as David Montgomery was likely lost for the season. Considering they almost lost at home to the Bears earlier this season, should we expect them to perform better this week when going on the road?
Who knows what the defense will do, but I'm confident this offense is going to put up a lot of points. In their first meeting this season, the Lions scored just two touchdowns, but they were also just 2-of-5 in the red zone in that game. This is a team that scores a touchdown on 70% of their red-zone attempts. While the Bears have held opponents to fewer than 50% from the red zone this season, they're allowing opponents to score on two-thirds of their attempts over the last three weeks.
Weather won't be an issue on Sunday. With the Lions coming off a loss, I expect them to take out their frustrations on their inferior division rival. They've scored at least 40 points in five games this year. Look for that to increase to six on Sunday.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.