NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2022)
The NFL is a bettor’s dream, offering a boatload of wagering options. The NFL Week 16 player prop bet market is one of the best betting markets. They are an opportunity to bet on a player’s stats, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. They have perfect crossover appeal for fantasy sports gamers dipping their toes into the betting world. Savvy gamblers wisely check many books for the best prop odds, and the following suggestions are my favorite props after scanning multiple sportsbooks.
So, let’s look at some NFL Week 16 player prop bets.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2022)
Taysom Hill Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
The weather forecast is miserable for Cleveland on Saturday. According to meteorologist Kevin Roth, the forecast has 25-30 mph sustained winds and gusts of 40-50 mph. It’s a nightmare forecast for passing the football, and Andy Dalton isn’t the strong-armed quarterback to make chicken salad out of chicken feces.
New Orleans’ passing weapons are also lackluster this week. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are ruled out. Yikes. The runway should be clear for Taysom Hill to be heavily involved in a run-first gimmick offense against Cleveland’s pitiful run defense.
First, according to Football Outsiders, the Browns are 29th in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. Second, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns have tied for the eighth-most rushing yards allowed per game (133.1) at a robust 5.0 yards per carry.
Sadly, Hill has cleared 37.5 rushing yards only five times this year. Nonetheless, he’s toted the rock at least six times in three of his last four games, and it’s reasonable to expect him to carry the ball more often this week for a team desperate for offensive juice in dreadful weather conditions.
D.J. Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (+130)
Sam Darnold has helped D.J. Moore rise from the ashes. According to numberFire, Moore had a 22.7% Target Share and nine receptions in Darnold’s three starts. Unfortunately, he had more than 4.5 receptions in just one of the three games. Yet, Moore’s five-reception effort was last week, coinciding with Carolina’s only loss during Darnold’s starts.
The Panthers want to rush when they can. However, they’re an underdog this week, and the Lions are stout against the run. The Lions are -2.5-point favorites. Additionally, the Lions are eighth in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. As a result, teams have taken to the air frequently. In neutral game scripts since Week 9, Detroit’s opponents have attempted 165 passes and 103 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
And, most importantly, the matchup is dreamy for Moore. Slot wideouts have destroyed the Lions, and Moore has had a juicy slot rate lately.
Since Week 9, per the Sports Info Solutions (SIS) data at The 33rd Team, receivers aligned in the slot have averaged 12.1 targets and 8.6 receptions per game against the Lions. Of course, multiple wide receivers have rotated into the slot in all of those games, but teams have peppered the slot wide receivers against the Lions, and Moore shouldn’t be an exception to the rule. So, getting plus money on this prop feels like a gift.
Bet online at DraftKings Sportsbook with special offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him, @BChad50.