NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Dec 22, 2023

Have you been evicted from the fantasy playoffs? If so, weep not. We have player prop betting to scratch your gaming itch.

I'll get to my favorite player prop bets for Week 16 in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of Week 15's plays â€¦

The wins: Mitchell Trubisky under 201.5 passing yards, Zack Moss under 71.5 rushing yards, David Montgomery over 66.5 rushing yards, Chuba Hubbard over 63.5 rushing yards, T.J. Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards

The losses: Justin Fields over 182.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 19.5 receiving yards, Elijah Moore over 40.5 receiving yards, DeVante Parker under 32.5 receiving yards, Puka Nacua over 66.5 receiving yards

Last week: 5-5

Season record: 70-69

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NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets: Fitz's Favorites

Sam Howell UNDER 213.5 passing yards

Howell has struggled badly in his last two starts, throwing for 127 yards against the Dolphins and 107 yards against the Rams, completing 46.9% of his throws and averaging 4.7 yards per pass attempt over that span. He was pulled from last week's loss to the Rams in favor of Jacoby Brissett, and Howell could get yanked again this week if he flounders vs. the Jets. There's a pretty fair chance of a Howell face-plant against a Jets defense that's giving up 187.8 passing yards per game and 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

Joe Flacco OVER 244.5 passing yards

The Browns are letting Flacco wing it. In his three starts for Cleveland, Flacco is averaging 313 passing yards per game and has attempted 44, 45 and 44 passes. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a suspect Houston pass defense that has given up the seventh-most passing yards, yielding 259.6 yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt.

Joe Mixon OVER 46.5 rushing yards

Mixon's rushing total is only 19 yards higher than rookie teammate Chase Brown's, so I guess the interpretation is Mixon will continue to yield more and more work to Brown. All right, I'll take the bait. Mixon had a robust 70% snap share last week, out-snapping Brown 49-13. Mixon has cleared this number in five consecutive games and in 10-of-14 games this season. He'll be facing a Steelers defense that has given up the seventh-most rushing yards to RBs. People are fading Joe Mixon? Iâ€™ll fade the fade.

James Cook OVER 67.5 rushing yards

In the four games since the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and made Joe Brady their offensive play-caller, Cook has averaged 17.0 carries and 88.3 rushing yards per game. The electric Cook is averaging 5.1 yards per carry for the season and 5.8 yards per carry over his last five contests. Buffalo's lead running back will be facing a Chargers defense that looked disinterested last week in a 63-21 loss to the Raiders. The downtrodden Chargers have given up an average of 146.2 rushing yards over their last six games. The Bills are favored by 12.5 points, so they figure to get a run-friendly game script.

Tony Pollard UNDER 55.5 rushing yards

Pollard has been uninspiring as a runner this season, averaging 60.6 rushing yards per game and a career-low 4.1 yards per carry. He gets a tough road matchup against the Dolphins, who have really put the clamps on opposing RBs lately. The last time Miami gave up more than 55 rushing yards to a running back was in Week 9, when the Chiefs' Isiah Pacheco ran for 66 yards against the Dolphins. In the five games Miami has played since then, the Dolphins have held opposing RBs to 54.0 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.

Javonte Williams UNDER 55.5 rushing yards

Williams has failed to clear this number in three of his last five games and is averaging 3.4 yards per carry over that stretch. He has a difficult matchup against the Patriots, who have one of the NFL's premier run defenses. The Patriots are allowing 69.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry to RBs.

Trenton Irwin OVER 10.5 receiving yards

In the four games that Tee Higgins has missed this year, Irwin averaged 3.5 catches and 43.8 receiving yards per game, with at least 25 yards in each of those contests. Irwin played at least 70% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps in all of those games. Higgins is healthy, but the Bengals will be without star WR Ja'Marr Chase against the Steelers, so Irwin should once again see plenty of action for Cincinnati.

Terry McLaurin UNDER 51.5 receiving yards

McLaurin has cleared this number in only one of his last five games. He had six catches for 141 yards last week against the Rams, but three of those catches and 93 of those yards came on throws from backup QB Jacoby Brissett, who took over for ineffective starter Sam Howell late in the game. Howell is going to get the start for Washington this week, and he and McLaurin will be facing a nasty Jets pass defense. The Jets are giving up a league-low 106.1 receiving yards per game to WRs.

Calvin Ridley OVER 55.5 receiving yards

Ridley has had a roller-coaster season, but it's a good bet that he'll be heavily involved for the Jaguars this week with WR Christian Kirk (core injury) out and WR Zay Jones (hamstring) almost surely out. With Kirk sidelined for Jacksonville's last two games, Ridley has had nine catches for 92 yards, but those modest numbers belie big target totals. Ridley has drawn 25 targets over the last two weeks. It's possible that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence doesn't clear concussion protocol for this game and backup C.J. Beathard gets the start for Jacksonville, but I would still like Ridley's chance of topping this number against a shaky Buccaneers pass defense that has allowed 195.1 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs, second-most in the league.

D.J. Moore OVER 63.5 receiving yards

Letâ€™s close with an easy one. In the four games the Bears have played since QB Justin Fields' return from a thumb injury, Moore has averaged 10.0 targets, 7.0 receptions and 82.5 yards. He has a soft home matchup against the Cardinals, who have one of the worst sets of cornerbacks in the league. Smash the over here.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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