Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 16 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Week 15 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 8-6-1 (+1.4 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 2-3
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 98-83-2 (+6.9 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 39-31
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s NFL Week 16 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 16 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Dec. 21, at 10 am ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| NYJ | JAX | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| BAL | ATL | -7.5 | -7.75 | -0.25 |
| CHI | BUF | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 |
| CAR | DET | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 |
| CLE | NO | -2.5 | -2.75 | -0.25 |
| NE | CIN | 3.5 | 3.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | NYG | -3.5 | -5.25 | -1.75 |
| KC | SEA | -9.5 | -11.75 | -2.25 |
| TEN | HOU | -5 | -6 | -1 |
| SF | WAS | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| DAL | PHI | -4.5 | -4.5 | 0 |
| PIT | LV | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| MIA | GB | -4 | -5.5 | -1.5 |
| LAR | DEN | 2.5 | 1.75 | -0.75 |
| ARI | TB | 6.5 | 5.25 | -1.25 |
| IND | LAC | 4 | 2.75 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Lions -2.5 at Panthers
- Vikings -3.5 vs. Giants
- Dolphins -4 vs. Packers
Freedman’s NFL Week 16 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Check out our Lions at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: FOX
Lions at Panthers: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 21.
- Spread: Lions -2.5
- Betting Percentages: Lions – 72% bets, 81% money
Lions at Panthers: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Lions ATS: 10-4 (37.6% ROI)
- Panthers ATS: 7-7 (-3.9% ROI)
Detroit Lions: Notable Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 21-10 ATS (29.8% ROI) for career
- 2022 Lions: 7-1 ATS (68.2% ROI) since No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown returned from injury in Week 8
Lions at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.053 | 9 | 0.004 | 12 | 3 |
| Total SR | 45.2% | 15 | 44.4% | 15 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | 10.7% | 6 | 4.4% | 20 | 14 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.152 | 5 | 0.046 | 14 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 8 | 45.4% | 12 | 4 |
| Pass DVOA | 25.1% | 8 | 10.6% | 21 | 13 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.7% | 2 | 5.7% | 27 | 25 |
| Rush EPA | -0.085 | 22 | -0.055 | 18 | -4 |
| Rush SR | 40.6% | 19 | 43.0% | 22 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.5% | 12 | -2.5% | 21 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.69 | 5 | 4.29 | 12 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 6 | 5.3 | 12 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 26.4 | 5 | 22.4 | 15 | 10 |
Panthers Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.062 | 27 | 0.096 | 31 | 4 |
| Total SR | 39.1% | 31 | 47.3% | 29 | -2 |
| Total DVOA | -16.0% | 29 | 5.2% | 23 | -6 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.108 | 31 | 0.158 | 31 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 37.1% | 32 | 49.8% | 29 | -3 |
| Pass DVOA | -16.6% | 30 | 11.0% | 22 | -8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 24 | 6.3% | 25 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.005 | 9 | -0.010 | 25 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 41.5% | 15 | 43.0% | 22 | 7 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.1% | 20 | -3.3% | 19 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.61 | 9 | 4.32 | 16 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 6.2 | 32 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 19.7 | 24 | 26 | 31 | 7 |
Lions at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.104 | 10 |
| AY/A | 7.8 | 7 |
| QBR | 62.5 | 6 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.9 | 7 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 8.6
2022: Sam Darnold
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.8 | 37 |
Career: Sam Darnold
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -75.8
Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Panthers Defensive Line
I have the Lions offensive line at No. 1 in my personal unit power rankings, and the Panthers defensive line at No. 21.
The Lions offense is No. 2 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%); the Panthers defense, No. 27 (5.7%).
The Lions have back-to-back road games, and QB Jared Goff doesn’t have the benefit of playing in a dome — but he was also outdoors in cold weather last week, when he had an effective 7.2 AY/A against the tough Jets pass defense, and the forecast weather in Carolina this weekend (clear, 30 degrees Fahrenheit, six-mph wind) is hardly enough to cause concern.
The Panthers are without No. 1 CB Donte Jackson (Achilles, IR), and I expect the Lions to attack through the air. When they do, I expect the Lions offensive line to give Goff ample protection, and that will be the difference in this game.
Best Line: Lions -2.5 (-110, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Lions -2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions -4
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Check out our Giants at Vikings matchup page.
- Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium
- TV: FOX
Giants at Vikings: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 21.
- Spread: Vikings -3.5
- Betting Percentages: Vikings – 67% bets, 67% money
Giants at Vikings: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Giants ATS: 10-4 (37.4% ROI)
- Vikings ATS: 6-7-1 (-9.9% ROI)
Giants at Vikings: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Giants Offense vs. Vikings Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.03 | 12 | 0.01 | 13 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.3% | 19 | 45.0% | 20 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | 5.0% | 14 | 4.3% | 19 | 5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.067 | 13 | 0.078 | 19 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 47.1% | 13 | 47.0% | 21 | 8 |
| Pass DVOA | 19.8% | 10 | 13.3% | 27 | 17 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.4% | 28 | 6.8% | 21 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.023 | 10 | -0.107 | 7 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.2% | 21 | 41.8% | 17 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.6% | 10 | -8.9% | 15 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.13 | 26 | 4.21 | 11 | -15 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 23 | 5.9 | 29 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 20 | 24.9 | 28 | 8 |
Vikings Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 18 | 0.068 | 29 | 11 |
| Total SR | 45.1% | 16 | 44.8% | 19 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | -2.9% | 20 | 11.4% | 29 | 9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.07 | 12 | 0.084 | 20 | 8 |
| Dropback SR | 49.0% | 7 | 45.5% | 14 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 17 | 12.5% | 24 | 7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 12 | 6.5% | 23 | 11 |
| Rush EPA | -0.130 | 28 | 0.045 | 30 | 2 |
| Rush SR | 37.1% | 29 | 43.7% | 25 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -10.3% | 22 | 10.1% | 31 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 23 | 4.94 | 29 | 6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.8 | 26 | 11 |
| Points per Game | 25.1 | 8 | 22.3 | 14 | 6 |
Giants at Vikings: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.088 | 13 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 21 |
| QBR | 57.1 | 12 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.6 | 18 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -20.1
2022: Kirk Cousins
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.084 | 14 |
| AY/A | 7 | 12 |
| QBR | 51.6 | 19 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.0 | 16 |
Career: Kirk Cousins
- AY/A: 7.7
- QB Elo per Game: 39.2
Key Matchup: WR Justin Jefferson & TE T.J. Hockenson vs. Giants Pass Defense
Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign for the Vikings, WR Justin Jefferson has averaged 101.5 yards on 9.9 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.3 yards per target.
He’s No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,639 yards receiving in his first three seasons, and he’s No. 1 in the league this year with 111 receptions overall and 64, 26, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
The Giants have been without No. 1 CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee) since Week 11, and he didn’t practice on Tuesday. I’m highly doubtful he plays, and without him the Giants don’t have a corner who can hang with Jefferson.
Similarly, the Giants are without S Xavier McKinney (hand, IR) — and they’re No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (35.8%).
Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, TE T.J. Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (57), receptions (39) and yards receiving (335).
Like Jefferson, Hockenson should be able to exploit the Giants pass defense.
Best Line: Vikings -3.5 (+100, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Vikings -3.5 (+100)
Personal Projection: Vikings -5.25
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Packers at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: FOX
Packers at Dolphins: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 21.
- Spread: Dolphins -4
- Betting Percentages: Packers – 55% bets, 94% money
Packers at Dolphins: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Packers ATS: 6-8 (-17.5% ROI)
- Dolphins ATS: 7-7 (-3.6% ROI)
Miami Dolphins: Notable Trend
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 12-4 ATS (43.5% ROI) at home
Packers at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Packers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.023 | 15 | 0.037 | 21 | 6 |
| Total SR | 46.3% | 9 | 45.2% | 23 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 7 | 2.8% | 18 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.033 | 17 | 0.096 | 24 | 7 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 17 | 48.2% | 24 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.9% | 14 | 12.6% | 26 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 7 | 7.0% | 16 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | 0.008 | 7 | -0.077 | 14 | 7 |
| Rush SR | 46.3% | 4 | 39.3% | 7 | 3 |
| Rush DVOA | 10.2% | 3 | -12.3% | 11 | 8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.88 | 2 | 3.95 | 4 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.5 | 17 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 20 | 24.6 | 26 | 6 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.083 | 5 | 0.052 | 27 | 22 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 12 | 45.7% | 24 | 12 |
| Total DVOA | 17.2% | 3 | 4.6% | 22 | 19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.151 | 6 | 0.038 | 13 | 7 |
| Dropback SR | 48.5% | 8 | 44.4% | 8 | 0 |
| Pass DVOA | 37.5% | 2 | -2.4% | 8 | 6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.8% | 14 | 7.0% | 18 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.049 | 16 | 0.068 | 31 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 41.4% | 16 | 47.3% | 32 | 16 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.3% | 11 | 11.8% | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.58 | 11 | 5.16 | 32 | 21 |
| Yards per Play | 6.2 | 2 | 5.6 | 18 | 16 |
| Points per Game | 24.6 | 9 | 22.4 | 15 | 6 |
Packers at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 240 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Aaron Rodgers
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.064 | 22 |
| AY/A | 6.8 | 21 |
| QBR | 40.8 | 28 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.7 | 17 |
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 77.9
2022: Tua Tagovailoa
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.155 | 2 |
| AY/A | 9.3 | 1 |
| QBR | 71.8 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.4 | 12 |
Career: Tua Tagovailoa
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 12.2
Key Matchup: Dolphins Rush Offense vs. Packers Rush Defense
The Packers have the league’s worst run defense, and it’s not close.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.049 | 16 | 0.068 | 31 | 15 |
| Rush SR | 0.414 | 16 | 0.473 | 32 | 16 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.003 | 11 | 0.118 | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.58 | 11 | 5.16 | 32 | 21 |
They’re No. 32 against the rush in most metrics, and the Dolphins have been notable better on the ground ever since parting ways with RB Chase Edmonds (2.9 yards per carry) and trading for Jeff Wilson (5.4 with Dolphins) in Week 9.
Wilson (hip) missed Week 15, but he’s expected to play against the Packers, and even if he doesn’t the Dolphins still have RB Raheem Mostert, who last week had 17-136-0 rushing.
Playing at home, with two extra days of rest (Saturday vs. Monday for Packers), the Dolphins should be able to control the game with their ground attack.
Best Line: Dolphins -4 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Dolphins -4 (-110)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -5.5
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Jaguars +0.5 at Jets
- Lions -2.5 at Panthers
- Vikings -3.5 vs. Giants
- Titans -4.5 vs. Texans
- Dolphins -3.5 vs. Packers
I expect these picks to change based on line movement, so I’ll provide a tweet with my updated contest picks on Saturday before kickoff, and then I’ll post that tweet here.
Tweet Update (Sat. 12/24): Here’s the tweet.
Previous Best Bets Pieces
- Week 1
- Week 2
- Week 3
- Week 4
- Week 5
- Week 6
- Week 7
- Week 8
- Week 9
- Week 10
- Week 11
- Week 12
- Week 13
- Week 14
- Week 15
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
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