NFL Week 16 Takeaways: What We Learned
Weather played some tricks with the Week 16 games, but here are some of our takeaways.
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Buffalo Bills 35 – Chicago Bears 13
Windy City Route
The Bears kept it competitive early but ultimately faltered in the game’s second half. Even still, this loss does not weigh so heavily on Chicago, and the team continues to demonstrate competency with Justin Fields under center. Happily, the Bears have leveraged this season into a very valuable top draft pick.
As to the victors, the Bills remain in the driver’s seat in the AFC. It was encouraging to see Buffalo be dominant, though QB Josh Allen was subpar. His multi-interception can be excused in Chicago, but Allen will need to be at his best next week in a crucial matchup with the surging Bengals.
New Orleans Saints 17 – Cleveland Browns 10
Fair-Weather Fans
The coldest game in Browns’ history, and the game was played like so. In such conditions, both teams’ offenses lacked a passing attack, and points were at a premium. The Saints had the advantage on the ground (surprisingly), and that ended up being the game’s differentiator. In consequence, Cleveland has officially fallen out of postseason contention, playing now for pride in their final two games.
More on the Saints– New Orleans has now won two straight and still are in contention to win the NFC South. It is unlikely, considering they have lost to the Bucs twice, but they still remain just a game back. Every team is still alive in the South, even if the betting markets suggest that Tampa has a hold on the division crown.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Seattle Seahawks 10
Hawks Can’t Hang
Seattle has now dropped five of their last six and, in doing so, has relinquished any real chance of them making the postseason. The team has been a victim of both schedule and poor play as they’ve sputtered down the stretch. Their pending top pick via the Broncos will be a critical point in this coming draft– bolster your defense, or move on from Geno Smith at quarterback?
Conversely, the Chiefs’ victory keeps them in contention for the AFC’s top seed and only bolstered QB Patrick Mahomes’ chances of winning his second MVP award.
Minnesota Vikings 27 – New York Giants 24
It’s Not Luck, it’s Skill
Minnesota won yet another close contest, improving to a now 11-0 in one-possession games this year. The Vikings’ fortune in one-score games is inarguable– but in a speculative NFC, Minnesota has as good of a chance as any to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. The team should have the privilege of hosting multiple home playoff games and boast the likely OPOY in WR Justin Jefferson– don’t overlook the Vikings.
And a Merry Christmas to you, Giants fans. New York lost, but so did the Commanders, Lions, and Seahawks. They’ll retain the conference’s no.6 seed and are one win away from the postseason for the first time since 2016. The team continues to cover at a prolific rate on the road– QB Daniel Jones is now 17-7 ATS on the road.
Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New England Patriots 18
A Good Time for a Lateral
Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow was tossing bullets early in this game, and it appeared the Bengals were on the brink of a blowout, having built a 22-0 halftime lead. Instead, the Patriots rallied. New England’s defense stepped up in the second half, igniting their ultimately futile comeback bid with a pick-six off of Burrow midway through the third quarter.
It’s noteworthy to see the Patriots fight back, but it grows exponentially frustrating to watch this team. Their offense is anemic and squandered the team’s opportunity to steal this game. With the loss, New England projects to miss the postseason for just the third time in the past twenty years. In watching the game’s final plays, we couldn’t help but think– this would be a great time to try a lateral.
Cincinnati, however, clinched their second consecutive playoff berth with today’s win. In what was their seventh straight victory, the Bengals continue to streak and have a shot to overtake the AFC’s no.1 seed with a win over the Bills on New Year’s Day. In addition, let’s take a moment to recognize Joe Burrow’s 19-3 record ATS in his last twenty-two starts.
Carolina Panthers 37 – Detroit Lions 23
Motor City Kitties
Detroit would have propelled themselves into the NFC’s 7 seed with a win. Instead, the team forgot their run defense in the Motor City and remain half a game back in a muddled NFC wildcard race.
Early on, the Panthers flirted with breaking the NFL’s single-game rushing record, as RBs D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard had career days on the ground. The Panthers’ explosive ground attack propelled them to a 24-7 halftime lead and keeps them in contention in the NFC South.
Baltimore Ravens 17 – Atlanta Falcons 9
Ravens’ Redzone Woes
The Ravens have managed to keep their heads above water without QB Lamar Jackson, but nothing about it has been easy. Since the Broncos game, Baltimore has scored a mere 11.5 ppg, and much of the anemic offense can be explained by struggles in the red zone.
In this game, the Ravens were 1-4 in converting red zone trips to touchdowns, and this conversion is exactly why the game was not a blowout. We should expect more of the Ravens when Lamar returns, but these issues may be emblematic of deeper issues in the Baltimore system. Only time will tell.
Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 14
This Game Should’ve Been Delayed Longer
The Titans have now dropped five straight games and afforded the Jags first place in the AFC South by doing so. Via the Titans’ precipitous drop out of first place in the division, Jacksonville and Tennessee find themselves in a precarious position– no matter what happens this week, the winner of the Tennessee @ Jacksonville Week 18 game will determine which team wins the division crown.
San Francisco 49ers 37 – Washington Commanders 20
Purdy Good
Excuse me for the tagline, but the 49ers haven’t missed a beat with third-string QB Brock Purdy under center. San Francisco has thwarted four playoff-contending teams in Garoppolo’s absence and has the opportunity to swipe the NFC’s 2 seed in these waning weeks.
As to Washington, they didn’t lose any ground in the playoff race by virtue of what else happened in the Conference.. but it sure feels like they did. That was a tough loss for the Commanders, and conceding the QB position back to Carson Wentz may be short-sighted. Perhaps Wentz is what this team needs right now, but his history suggests he may just as well derail Washington down the stretch.
Dallas Cowboys 40 – Philadelphia Eagles 34
Round 2 to Dallas
The Cowboys overcame two ten-point deficits en route to victory and kept their division title hopes alive in doing so. Bravo to Dallas for their fight, but to what extent should this win be encouraged by this victory?
The Dallas defense was picked apart by backup QB Gardner Minshew… but they also accounted for four turnovers and sealed the game late. Quarterback Dak Prescott threw yet another interception… but the offense hummed otherwise opposite one of the NFL’s best defenses. Truthfully, we don’t know much about the disparity between these two teams. Perhaps Dallas is just as good as Philadelphia, but we can’t put too much stock into this result.
If Philly retains the no.1 seed, we likely find these two teams matched up in the divisional round — and hopefully, both starting QBs healthy that time.
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 10
Cold Weather Carr
Let’s first call attention to one of the best current streaks in the NFL– for his career, Las Vegas QB Derek Carr is both winless and 7-0 to the Under when kickoff temperatures are 37° or below. The Career Californian (and now, Nevadan) had historically blundered in the blistering weather, and nothing changed late Christmas Eve.
The Raiders found the end-zone on their opening drive, but that was nearly all of the offense they could muster. The 72-yard touchdown march accounted for exactly 70% of their total points and roughly 35% of their total yards. Off the opening game-script, the Vegas offense was anemic, as usual. A disappointing year was cemented by this loss and rejuvenated those clamoring for change atop the Raiders’ depth chart.
Green Bay Packers 26 – Miami Dolphins 20
What the Tua
It had been three straight losses on the road, and the Dolphins had fallen out of favor this past month. For a moment, it seemed that Miami had found their footing back home, sprinting ahead to a 20-10 halftime lead over the desperate Packers. And then it was the second half, and Tua Tagovailoa was the worst QB he has ever been.
The once trendy MVP pick was miserable late. Tagovailoa tossed three fourth-quarter interceptions as Miami squandered their lead, and in doing so, left us questioning their postseason aspirations. There had been substantial goodwill afforded to the Dolphins, but the team now finds themselves hanging onto the AFC’s 7 seed by a thread, with a crucial game in Foxboro looming.
As a result of the Dolphins’ late collapse, the Packers suddenly find themselves in the NFC playoff picture. Not quite literally, though they are just half a game back in the standings with two to play. If things break right for them these next two weeks, Green Bay may be the scariest no.7 seed we have seen since the playoff expansion.
Los Angeles Rams 51 – Denver Broncos 14
Time to Watch Basketball
In hindsight, the Broncos should never have been favored in LA. Denver QB Russell Wilson was awful, as he’s so often been, and the team once again failed to muster even twenty points. Notably, it was surprising to see the defense fold to the Rams. Denver’s D had been one of the more formidable units around the NFL, and its porous effort may signal they’ve given up on the year and their coach.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Arizona Cardinals 16
Tom vs. Bed-Time
Victories are painful for this team. The Bucs managed to overcome a 16-6 fourth-quarter deficit, but that is no great feat when considering the stature of their opponent. The script is the same each week for Tampa Bay, and Brady’s offense was depressing as usual. I suppose we can never count them out because Tom Brady remains under center, but there is no reclamation for the Bucs.
Tampa continues to begrudgingly march to the postseason, and they’ll have done just that if they beat the Panthers next week.
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