NFL Week 16 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Christmas Day)
Merry Christmas, everyone! The NFL has given us the best gift of all: three games on Christmas day! Tomorrow’s first matchup is between the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins. The second game is between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams. To end the day, we got a battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals. Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let’s take a look.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Week 16 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Christmas Day)
Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins
Packers First TD Scorer: Christian Watson (WR) +390
The rookie wide receiver has been on fire lately. Over the past five games, Watson has averaged 4.2 touches and 81.6 scrimmage yards per contest. Furthermore, he has eight total touchdowns during those five games, scoring at least once in 80% of the matchups. More importantly, the rookie receiver has scored the first Green Bay touchdown in 28.9% of the games this season, including three of the past five contests. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered 10 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, giving up the first score of the game for their opponents a few times, including two weeks ago to Mike Williams.
Dolphins First TD Scorer: Tyreek Hill (WR) +330
When the Dolphins traded for Hill in the offseason, they knew they were getting a superstar receiver. Yet, he has outperformed their expectations. The superstar receiver has been on fire all season long. However, Hill has been out of this world lately. Over the past three weeks, the veteran receiver averaged 7.3 receptions on 12.3 targets per game, totaling three receiving touchdowns during that span. Furthermore, he had that wild fumble recovery for a touchdown a few weeks ago, giving up four total touchdowns over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Packers have surrendered 12 touchdowns to wide receivers this year, including five as the first offensive score of the game for their opponent.
Anytime TD Scorer: Aaron Jones (RB – GB) -110
While Watson leads the team with nine offensive touchdowns this season, Jones is just behind him with seven. The star running back averaged 10.5 touchdowns per season over the previous two years, so he is on pace to slightly fall below that average this season. However, Jones has played well lately. He scored a touchdown in two of the past three contests, including a seven-yard receiving score last week against the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up 16 touchdowns to running backs this season, the third-most in the NFL, including two to the Buffalo Bills running backs last week.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams
Broncos First TD Scorer: Latavius Murray (RB) +260
Of the three Christmas day games, this matchup might be the worst. The Broncos haven’t scored a touchdown in two games this season. At +750, no Denver touchdown isn’t a bad longer-shot bet. However, Murray is the most likely first touchdown candidate for the Broncos. Despite playing only nine games with Denver, the veteran running back leads the team with four rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, he has scored the first touchdown for the Broncos twice since he joined the team. If Murray doesn’t play because of a foot injury, Marlon Mack at +290 is an excellent replacement bet.
Rams First TD Scorer: Cam Akers (LAR) +275
While the Rams have scored a touchdown in all but one game this season, no Los Angeles touchdown score at +600 is appealing. The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have held their opponent without a touchdown twice this season. However, the Rams should be able to score at least once in this game. After struggling to start the year, Akers has played well lately. Over the past three weeks, the third-year running back has three rushing touchdowns, including the first Los Angeles score of the game twice. Meanwhile, the first touchdown opposing teams have scored against the Broncos has been a rushing touchdown in back-to-back contests.
Anytime TD Scorer: Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) +195
I’ll be honest I have very little confidence that there will be more than one offensive touchdown from either team this week. Both offenses have struggled this year, while both defenses have played well. However, Russell Wilson will play this week after missing a game with a concussion. The veteran quarterback had his best performance this year two weeks ago, throwing three touchdown passes against the Kansas City Chiefs. More importantly, two of them went to Jeudy, who scored three touchdowns in the game. Furthermore, the former first-round pick leads the team with six offensive touchdowns this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Buccaneers First TD Scorer: Russell Gage (WR) +950
On paper, the Buccaneers have a loaded offense. However, they have been awful on the field this season. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin averaged a combined 19.5 receiving touchdowns per season in their first two years with Tom Brady. By comparison, the duo has only six touchdowns this season. Instead, Gage leads the team with four receiving touchdowns and is second in offensive scores this year. More importantly, the veteran receiver has the first Tampa Bay touchdown in 21.4% of the games, including two straight contests. Meanwhile, the first touchdown surrendered by Arizona has been a receiving score in 57.1% of their games this year.
Cardinals First TD Scorer: James Conner (RB) +240
The Arizona offense has fallen apart lately. Two weeks ago, the Cardinals lost Kyler Murray to a season-ending torn ACL. Since then, Conner has become the offense for Arizona. The veteran running back has seven touchdowns this season. However, six have come over the past five games, as Conner has at least one touchdown in every contest. More importantly, he has scored the first Arizona touchdown in four of those five contests, including two straight. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has given up a rushing touchdown as the first score to their opponent in two of their past four contests.
Anytime TD Scorer: Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) +110
Last season, the veteran running back had 10 offensive touchdowns, matching his career-high. His eight rushing touchdowns were the 10th-most in the NFL last season. However, Fournette has only six offensive touchdowns this season but still leads the team. While the veteran hasn’t found the end zone in the past three games, Fournette has a solid chance to score against the Cardinals. Arizona has given up 16 touchdowns to running backs this season, the third-most in the league. Furthermore, running backs have scored four rushing touchdowns against the Cardinals over the past two weeks, the most in the NFL.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.