NFL Week 16 Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 23, 2023

Christmas is almost here, and the NFL has given us the best gift of all: Saturday football games. This week, we get two NFL matchups on Saturday. The Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers kick off in the day's first matchup. Then, the Buffalo Bills battle the Los Angeles Chargers to wrap up the slate.

Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.

Week 16 Saturday Football Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Bengals First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon (+205)

Despite losing Joe Burrow in Week 10 to a season-ending wrist injury, the Bengals have remained in the playoff race. Jake Browning has played well, but Mixon has stepped up in a massive way for the team. The veteran running back has a touchdown in seven of the past eight contests, including three consecutive with Browning under center. More importantly, he has the first Cincinnati touchdown in 25% of the games the team has found the end zone this year, including two of the past five weeks.

The only game Mixon didn't score a touchdown since the Bengals' bye was in the Week 12 loss against the Steelers. Hopefully, the team has learned that he needs more than eight rushing attempts to be effective. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has had no answer for opposing running backs lately. Since the first matchup against the Bengals, running backs have four touchdowns against the Steelers. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against Pittsburgh has been by a running back in half the games this season, including two straight.

Steelers First TD Scorer: Najee Harris (+310)

While many in the fantasy football community have begged the Steelers to make Jaylen Warren the featured running back, it hasn't happened this year. Harris still has the lead role. More importantly, he leads the team in rushing touchdowns and offensive scores with four. The former Alabama star has accounted for 23.1% of Pittsburgh's first touchdown of the game this season, a team-high. Furthermore, Harris has had the first Steelers touchdown in three of the past seven games.

When Pittsburgh and Cincinnati faced off in Week 12 Harris had the first and only Steelers touchdown in that contest. More importantly, the Bengals have struggled to stop the run early in games this year. The first touchdown scored against Cincinnati has been a rushing one in 64.3% of the games, including seven of the past nine contests. With Mason Rudolph making his first start of the season, don't be surprised if the team leans on their rushing attack.

Anytime TD Scorer: Diontae Johnson (+255)

Johnson has never been a touchdown machine. His best touchdown year was in 2021, posting eight scores and a 4.7% touchdown rate. Unfortunately, he had zero touchdowns last season and only one over the first 12 weeks this year. However, the veteran wide receiver has been on fire lately. Johnson has scored a touchdown in three consecutive contests, the first time he has found the end zone in three straight matchups in his career.

Some might be concerned that the former Toledo star won't have the same touchdown luck with the change at quarterback. All three of Johnson's touchdowns over the past three weeks were with Mitch Trubisky. While the Steelers are switching to Mason Rudolph this week, bettors shouldn't worry. The Bengals have surrendered two receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in two of their past five games, including last week against the Minnesota Vikings.

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Bills First TD Scorer: James Cook (+290)

Since the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, Cook has been one of the top running backs in the NFL. In the four games with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the second-year running back has had a touchdown in three contests, including two this past week in an impressive win over the Dallas Cowboys. More importantly, Cook has had the first Buffalo touchdown in 21.4% of the games this season, including two or four with Brady as offensive coordinator.

The Chargers fired their head coach and general manager after last week's embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. However, bettors shouldn't expect the coaching change to lead to an outstanding defensive performance from Los Angeles. The Chargers have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, the ninth-most in the NFL. Last week, Zamir White had the first Las Vegas touchdown in the win over Los Angeles. Don't be surprised if Cook keeps up his recent hot play on Saturday.

Chargers First TD Scorer: Austin Ekeler (+380)

Anyone who watched last week's embarrassing blowout loss has to wonder how much the Chargers offense will score the rest of the season. While I was tempted to go with a no Los Angeles touchdown scorer bet, Ekeler has the best chance of finding the end zone on Saturday for the Chargers. The veteran running back leads the team in rushing touchdowns (five) and is second in offensive scores (six) despite missing three games. More importantly, Ekeler had the first Los Angeles touchdown in 36.4% of the games he played this year.

Buffalo struggled to keep opposing running backs out of the end zone a few weeks ago. They gave up four rushing touchdowns and a 9.1% touchdown rate to running backs over a two-week period earlier this season. While their run defense has been better lately, the Bills still have issues keeping opposing rushers out of the end zone. Over the past eight matchups, the first touchdown scored against Buffalo has been a rushing one in half of the games, including three straight contests.

Anytime TD Scorer: Stefon Diggs (-105)

While the past few weeks have been frustrating for Diggs, the superstar wide receiver is prime to have a bounce-back performance on Saturday. Despite having only one touchdown over the past six weeks, Diggs leads the team in receiving scores and is second in offensive touchdowns this year (eight). More importantly, the former Maryland star had led the team in target per route run rate (26%) and first-read target share (32.2%) since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator (per Fantasy Points Data).

Meanwhile, the Chargers have surrendered 18 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the third-most in the league. This past week, they gave up five passing touchdowns to the Las Vegas Raiders, with four going to a wide receiver. Furthermore, Los Angeles has had no answer for No. 1 wide receivers lately. Over their past six games, the opposing No. 1 wide receiver has found the end zone five times. The only exception was in Week 13 against a New England offense that scored zero points.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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