NFL Week 16 Weather Report: Advice & Predictions (2022)
The weather outside isn’t just frightful this Christmas weekend, it’s downright awful. A winter storm is powering its way through the country, bringing heavy snow and wind and a sharp dropoff in temperatures.
In Chicago, we’re getting ready for a few inches of snow followed by wind chills that will supposedly feel like -30 degrees. It’s going to be pretty tough sledding for Santa this year. And this terrible (there’s nothing pleasant about snow and below-zero temperatures, no matter how much you want a white Christmas) weather will have a significant impact across the Week 16 slate.
Will we be stuffing our stockings with under bets this weekend? Or has the market overreacted to the worrisome forecasts across the league? Let’s delve into a busy Week 16 weather report.
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New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3) | Total 32.5
Forecast: 14 degrees, 49% chance of light snow
Wind speed: 29-53 MPH
We’ve been waiting for an insane weather game in Cleveland, and we’re going to get it here. The goalposts will be wobbling throughout the day, and it’ll be interesting to see if these two teams combine for more than 30 pass attempts in these awful conditions. But the question is, has the market overreacted to these windy conditions?
Obviously, the running games will be critical in answering that. New Orleans ranks 23rd in rushing DVOA, while Cleveland ranks eighth. Defensively, the Saints rank 23rd against the run, while Cleveland is 30th. While I can’t endorse an over with such awful weather, these two teams may be able to move the ball on the ground and be more aggressive in going for it on fourth down, as even the simplest field goals will be much harder, given the conditions.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Chicago Bears | Total 39.5
Forecast: 12 degrees, sunny
Wind speed: 23-32 MPH
This is another total that has plummeted due to ridiculously high winds. These offenses will be accustomed to these conditions, although wind chills as low as -10 degrees won’t be pleasant for anyone. There are some books still listing this total in the 40s, as both offenses have been able to put up points this year. But even against a terrible Bears defense, I’d expect Buffalo’s mission to be to win and get out healthy.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots | Total 41.5
Forecast: 20 degrees, clouds, and sun
Wind speed: 14-35 MPH
Temperatures will drop from a high of 58 degrees on Friday to a high of 20 on Saturday. That really speaks to the magnitude of this storm system. The winds will be a factor for Joe Burrow and Mac Jones, and the sinking total reflects that. However, it looks as if the sustained wind gusts won’t be as strong as some of the other games listed above.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7) | Total 35.5
Forecast: 22 degrees, clouds, and sun
Wind speed: 14-32 MPH
Desmond Ridder’s first career road start comes in windy M&T Bank Stadium against a Ravens offense that can’t get anything going with Tyler Huntley under center. Both teams will keep the ball primarily on the ground, and I’d play this under down to 34.5.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers | Total 44
Forecast: 33 degrees, sunny
Wind speed: 12-24 MPH
Winds could be a factor in this game if the sustained gusts sit around 15 miles per hour. And considering this game will be between Jared Goff outdoors and Sam Darnold, the under could be worth a look.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) | Total 35.5
Forecast: 21 degrees, partly sunny
Wind speed: 15-29 MPH
This total has dropped not only because of the winds but because Malik Willis will be starting for Tennessee. However, even high winds shouldn’t stop Derrick Henry against this Texans run defense which he’s dominated in the past. Davis Mills and his noodle arm could struggle mightily, however. The under could be worth a play, even at this low number.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) | Total 49
Forecast: 16 degrees, partly sunny
Wind speed: 12-23 MPH
The worst of the winter storm will exit Kansas City and move east before kickoff, hence why this total remains so high. Wind could still be a factor at times, however. But this is one of the tamer forecasts of the weekend.
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | Total 37.5
Forecast: 65 degrees, clouds, and sun
Wind speed: 5-7 MPH
Maybe I’ll get my family to move our Christmas plans out West, as the Bay Area seems like the place to be this weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | Total 38.5
Forecast: 10 degrees, cloudy
Wind speed: 15-29 MPH
It will be a cold primetime matchup between two AFC foes with fledgling playoff hopes. And windy weather could impact Derek Carr and the Raiders’ passing game.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4), Total 49.5
Forecast: 55 degrees, 89% chance of showers
Wind speed: 12-15 MPH
See, even Miami is going to be affected by this weather. However, neither the rain nor the wind looks to be significant enough to warrant a bet either way.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
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