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NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assuming one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD -0.3 -0.2% 55 – 89
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6
9 +1.6 15.8% 5 – 5
10 +2.5 22.4% 5 – 6
11 -0.6 -5.7% 4 – 7
12 -1.0 -9.4% 4 – 7
13 -1.3 -10.8% 4 – 8
14 +0.3 2.7% 5 – 5
15 -7.4 -73.5% 1 – 9
16 +4.0 39.5% 4 – 6

 

NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

McBride is looking for the first TD of his career this week against the Falcons. Since Ertz went down with a season-ending injury in Week 10, McBride has been a near every down player. He has also received 5 targets per game since the Week 13 bye. With the Cardinals out of contention, it would make sense to see McBride’s involvement in the offense continue for the remainder of the season. The Falcons have allowed the seventh most receiving yards to TEs this season. The Cardinals starting QB David Blough is not ideal, but I’ll take a chance on a long shot in a game featuring two bad offenses.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Teddy Bridgewater will get the start for the Dolphins this week. The last time we saw Bridgewater with extended playing time was in Week 6 against the Vikings. He played well in that game, throwing over 300 yards and two TDs. Tyreek Hill also had a big game, seeing 15 targets and totaling 177 yards. He failed to find the end zone, but there is evidence Hill will still be productive with Bridgewater under center. The Patriots have allowed five TDs to WRs over the last two weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game (140.3) and rushing TDs (18) to RBs in the league this season. Etienne had his first 100 total-yard game of his career against Houston in Week 5 and has continued his breakout in the subsequent weeks. Etienne has not scored since Week 9, but he is back to his normal workload after a minor injury in Week 12. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging 21 opportunities per game. He should have a good chance to score on one of those touches this week.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Since Week 10, Pacheco has averaged 15.6 rushing attempts and 76.9 yards rushing per game, which is good for eighth in the NFL. During that time, Pacheco received six of the eight carries inside the five-yard line. The volume has been consistent, and the Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites this week, so Pacheco should be in for another big workload.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Kmet had the best game of his career in Week 10 against Detroit when he had 74 yards and two TDs. He has been the most reliable receiving option for Justin Fields this season. Kmet leads the team with a 27.8% target share over the last six games and has seen the most red zone targets (5) on the team. This game has the highest total (52) by a few points on the day, so we should see both offenses be able to find the end zone at least a couple of times.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders

Thomas caught his lone TD of the year in Week 2 when Carson Wentz was under center. Wentz will be the starting QB in Week 17 after taking over for Taylor Heinicke last week. Thomas ended up seeing his highest target volume (8) and had the most catches (6) in any game this season last week. Two of the eight targets came in the red zone, so he should have another chance to score this week at long odds.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a home victory against the 4-10-1 Colts, who have lost five in a row. Barkley has scored a TD in four of the last five games. The only game he didn’t score was when his workload was hampered due to a neck injury. Barkley ranks fourth in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line, and he should be able to score one of those this week in a must-win game for the Giants.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans’ scoreless streak extended to 11 games as he continues to struggle to capitalize on his opportunities this season. There is hope against the Panthers this week. Evans had 9 catches for 96 yards on 15 targets in the first matchup against Carolina. This doesn’t include a long TD that was dropped in that game as well. The Bucs have an opportunity to clinch the NFC South in this matchup, and if the game plan is similar to the first matchup, Evans has a good chance to end the drought.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

Over the last seven weeks, the Saints defense has allowed the third-fewest passing yards and seventh-most rushing yards per game. It seems likely that the Eagles will stick to the ground game whether Minshew or Hurts starts this week. Sanders received 21 carries with Hurts sidelined last week; we expect a similar volume this week. The Eagles need one more win to clinch the #1 seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders

Aiyuk leads the team in target share (22.5%), with Brock Purdy under center. While Kittle has been the beneficiary of half of Purdy’s eight passing TDs over the last four games, Aiyuk has only seen two fewer red zone targets than Kittle over that span. With the Raiders starting Jarrett Stidham at QB, this game should not be very competitive. The 49ers have the third-highest implied team total (25.75) on the slate, so we can expect another efficient game from Purdy and the pass catchers.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

The Jets’ secondary has allowed the fewest receiving TDs in the league. It’ll be a difficult matchup for Geno Smith and company to be productive through the air, but Walker will have plenty of opportunity this week. The Jets are middle of the pack in terms of rushing defensive metrics, so there is a better chance that the run game leads the way for the Seahawks’ offense this week. Walker was dealing with an injury that cost him one game in Week 14, but was back to a bell-cow roll last week, running the ball 26 times for over 100 yards.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Doubs has had modest production in the two games since he returned from injury. He has seen 11 targets for only 91 yards the last two weeks, but he may be leaned on more heavily this week with Christian Watson nursing a hip injury. Watson has not practiced as of Thursday. The Vikings’ secondary has been exposed by opposing WRs all season. They rank dead last in receiving yards allowed to WR. Regardless of whether Watson plays, Doubs will be in a great matchup in a must-win game for the Packers.

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers

Allen has seen 14 targets in three of the last four games. This includes 11 targets in the red zone and three targets in the end zone. Allen only scored once during that span, despite being the preferred option from Herbert. Mike Williams should draw more of Jalen Ramsey since Allen runs the majority of his routes from the slot. Ekeler remained limited at practice due to a knee injury after scoring two TDs last week. With the Chargers clinching a playoff berth last week and Ekeler hobbled by an injury, the game plan should continue to feature Allen.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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