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NFL Week 17 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 17 edition of the NFL Betting Primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros.com. I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate.

Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive same-game parlays (SGP).

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 17 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks.

Below you will find my top picks for Week 17's Sunday eight-game main slate only. Note that the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football matchups will have their own dedicated articles.

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NFL Week 17 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Jaguars ML (-112)
  • Raiders ML (-125)

Top Underdogs:

  • Panthers +9
  • Green Bay ML (EVEN)

Top Totals:

  • BUF/NYJ under 46 
  • MIN/GB over 49

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have lost 10 of their 12 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 20 of their last 26 games. They are 4-11 ATS this season.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
  • Their opponents have scored last in 10 of the Jets' last 12 games.
  • In the Jets’ last four road games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Bills have won 18 of their last 22 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games as favorites.
  • The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last seven home games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 21-7 as a favorite since the start of last season and 14-14 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 30 games.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record (60%).
  • The Bills have won their last 15 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 15-2 straight up and 9-8 ATS at home.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • Bills are 8-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • As a road underdog, Buffalo is 3-4 straight up and on the Moneyline (33%).

Totals:

  • Sixteen of the Jets’ last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 5-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.
  • At home, the Jets are 3-4 O/U.
  • Four of the Jets' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in eight of their last nine games.
  • Nine of the Bills’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line. They are 6-1 toward the over this season (51.6 points per game).
  • Thirteen of the Bills’ last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line – 19 of their last 25 road games.
  • Ten of the Bills’ last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills’ last 11 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Jets – as we all know – are an inferior team. They barely escaped with a victory against the Jaguars in Week 15, and their offense was dysfunctional against the Rams.

They have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records and in nine of their last 12 games played overall.

As underdogs this season, Gang Green is 0-5 ATS and straight up. You don't need me to convince you that the Jets aren't a team to bet on in 2024.

But how convinced should we be that this is a blow-out spot for Buffalo at home versus the Jets? Yes, the Bills can lock up the No. 2 seed and rest their starters next week with a win. Obviously, they want to win the game. But Josh Allen admitted that the team is holding things back offensively for the playoffs. And he is also far from 100% dealing with injuries to his shoulder and elbow.

On my Christmas Day Betting Primer, I recommended parlaying the Chiefs ML with a Jets +9.5 wager, under the presumption that Buffalo would be out of the running for the No. 1 seed. They will win on Sunday, most likely, but I don't think it will be by 10-plus points.

When these teams first played, the spread was Bills -1, and it was a field goal contest (23-20) with Buffalo covering/winning.

But Buffalo is notorious for playing down to its competition at home - see the Patriots game last week - as they have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record (60%). They are also just 12-15 ATS as home favorites (44%). They are 5-7 ATS at home when favored by more than 8.5 points.

As for the total, this game total is too high at 46 points. When these teams first played the closing line total was at 42 points (which hit the over at 43). And although going for the under in this contest goes against both team trends (Bills go over at home, Jets go over on the road, etc.), it's more of a regression to the mean bet than anything. Both teams also came off unders last week at totals that closed north of 46.5 points.

We also have late December weather playing a role in Buffalo. Winds up to 17 mph and rain are forecast. Gross.

Props:

Four of the last six quarterbacks the Jets faced surpassed 265 passing yards.

Since Week 7, Josh Allen has thrown for 240-plus yards in six of his last nine games.

Khalil Shakir had just two catches for 22 yards on six targets in Week 16. Shakir had some very uncharacteristic drops because he totaled 104 air yards (33%) in what could have been a much more productive game. Expect him to bounce back big versus the Jets' slot-funnel defense in Week 17.

Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in nine of fourteen games this season. And the projections have him going over this number by a wide margin, with the projected receiving line closer to 55-63 yards.

Dalton Kincaid registered four catches for 15 yards on seven targets. Kincaid led the team with five first-half targets and ended with a 26% Target share. He also had a red-zone target but didn't score.

For the second straight game, the Bills tight end was heavily involved when he was on the field. He only played 34% of the snaps (20). His target rate was 54%, but he only ran 13 routes.

The first time the Bills played the Jets, Kincaid caught six of seven targets for 51 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per reception, with a long catch of 15 yards and 30% target share while leading Buffalo in routes run.

Breece Hall led the Jets' rushing attack with 14 carries for 52 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, with his longest rush being 7 yards. Breece Hall caught five passes for 38 yards on six targets, with a long reception of 15 yards.

Hall dominated the backfield with 10 first-half carries. No other Jets RB had more than 1. The Jets RB1 was also targeted five times in the first half. Hall finished the game with his standard 77% snap share. The usage was very encouraging after he practiced this week in full-great matchup on deck versus Buffalo, who struggles against pass-catching RBs. Hall went for over 150 yards from scrimmage in his last matchup versus the Bills this season, including 56 receiving yards.

According to Next Gen Stats, Hall has caught 53 of his 70 targets for 460 yards and two touchdowns this season, recording 480 yards after the catch, 7th-most among running backs.

Hall has also generated +114 YAC over expected, 4th-most among running backs.  The Bills defense has allowed the 3rd-most YAC to running backs this season, including a league-high 16 explosive pass plays (15+ yards).

The Bills’ defense ranks in the top three in most yards, catches, and targets allowed to running backs in the passing game this season.

Hall has averaged over 36 receiving yards per game when the Jets have been underdogs this season. The Jets RB in his career is 10-3 toward the over in his last 13 games as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is one passing TD away from his 500th TD. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which WR he wants to catch it. According to Next Gen Stats, Rodgers has totaled 1,754 yards (3rd-most) and 10 touchdowns (T-11th-most) on quick passes this season but has completed just 69.0% of such attempts, the 5th-lowest completion percentage in the NFL.  The Bills have allowed the 5th-most yards per attempt on quick passes this season (7.0) while also recording four interceptions on such passes (T-4th-most).

Davante Adams was the top target with 14 targets (four in the red zone, 31% Target share), catching seven passes for 68 yards and scoring one touchdown, with a long reception of 13 yards and just under 100 air yards.

My Picks:

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost 16 of their last 19 road games.
  • The Titans have lost each of their last four games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-12-1 ATS.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 15 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in their last seven home games.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites. They are 3-8 ATS as home favorites (28%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 19 games.
  • The Titans are 6-10 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 15 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last seven games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 17 of their last 21 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 14 of their last 21 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 21 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season.
  • They are just 3-15 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-3 as a home underdog and 5-6 on the Moneyline.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In eight of the Jaguars' last nine games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.

Totals:

  • Each of the Titans’ last seven road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans are 17-14-1 toward the under in their last 31 games.
  • Four of the Titans’ last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tennessee is 2-4-1 O/U at home this season, averaging 35.2 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Titans' last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Jaguars' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Jaguars’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 3-3 toward the over at home (46.3 points per game).
  • Nine of the Jaguars' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in nine of their last 23 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.

Overall:

When you first look at this matchup, it seems like a dead-even coin-flip between two awful teams. They are both 3-12. But with a closer look at their ATS records, I think there's a strong reason to believe in the Jaguars at home.

For starters, we already saw the Jaguars beat the Titans 10-6 in Tennessee at 3-point underdogs. It took a fourth-quarter comeback, but Mac Jones led the Jags to a road victory/cover. And that's something that Jacksonville has seemingly done all season. Cover the number. 7-7-1 ATS this season. The Titans have the single-worst ATS record for any team at 2-13.

When you consider those numbers instead of the raw wins and losses, I think this is no contest to take the Jaguars at home. Jacksonville covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss and they are 9-5 as favorites dating back to last season.

Just say no to the Titans on the road.

As for the total, we could see some sneaky fireworks (although there is some Florida rain in the forecast). Keep in mind that in the 10-6 matchup, Will Levis was the Titans’ quarterback. He got hurt at the end of the first half, which likely contributed to a lackluster finish. Mason Rudolph should be much better against a terrible Jaguars secondary.

According to Next Gen Stats, since replacing Will Levis in Week 15,  Rudolph has recorded the fourth-highest completion percentage (73.3%) and generated the 3rd-highest passing success rate in the NFL (58.1%).

Rudolph has been most effective against zone coverage, throwing for 410 yards (4th-most) and three touchdowns on such dropbacks over the last two weeks. However, all 4 of his interceptions have been against zone coverage over that span. The Jaguars have allowed the 4th-most EPA per dropback (+.13) and 3rd-most yards per attempt (8.1) when using zone coverage this season.

The Jaguars defense has generated the 2nd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season (26.9%).

The Jaguars have utilized a 4-man pass rush on 79.2% of opponent dropbacks (2nd-highest) but have generated pressure only 25.4% of the time on such rushes (2nd-lowest). The Titans allowed their lowest pressure rate of the season (14.7%) in Week 14 against the Jaguars, their only game allowing a pressure rate under 20% this season (Next Gen Stats).

The Titans' defense has just been shellacked in recent weeks, especially on the road. Tennessee’s defense has allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last six games played. Seven straight road games have gone over the projected point total.

Props:

Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. has recorded a 36.1% target share and a 52.5% air yard share since Mac Jones became the Jaguars’ starting quarterback in Week 14, both 3rd-highest rates in the NFL in that span.

Thomas Jr. has also recorded 323 receiving yards (4th-most), and 2.9 yards/route (8th-most, min. 60 routes) over that span according to Next Gen Stats.

Last week, BTJ was targeted 13 times and made nine receptions for 132 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception was 62 yards, showcasing his big-play ability. He commanded a 61% air yards share (140 air yards) and a 37% Target share.

In the last five games...BTJ has averaged nearly 22 PPR points, a 31% Target share, a 43% air yards share, and 96-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.

Thomas Jr. recorded his eighth game with 60-plus receiving yards and at least one receiving touchdown (Next Gen Stats), tying him with Randy Moss.

The Jaguars, specifically, are one of the worst defenses against tight ends.

Chigoziem Okonkwo led the Titans receivers with 11 targets (33% Target share), catching nine passes for 81 yards but no touchdowns. His longest reception was 22 yards. The usage from Week 15 carried over with Okonkwo to great success in back-to-back weeks as the team's leader in targets.

Look for it to continue versus Jacksonville after he played 85% of the snaps in Week 16. The Jags have allowed the third-most TDs to TEs this season.

And I do recall that the Titans' offense started hot with Rudolph in the games he started. They scored touchdowns in the first quarter of all four of Rudolph’s starts this season. We could easily expect to see the Jaguars fall behind, given their recent track record. In eight of the Jaguars' last nine games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.

Take some value with first-touchdown bets on the Titans' side whether it be Tyjae Spears if Pollard is out or tight end Chig Okonkwo.

The Jaguars' running game was led by Tank Bigsby, who rushed 12 times for 50 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown in Week 16. His longest run went for 10 yards. Travis Etienne contributed with nine carries for 22 yards, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry, but he was unable to find the end zone. The Jaguars also used Bigsby and Etienne in a committee approach, with Bigsby being the more effective rusher on the day.

Both guys saw seven carries for 27 yards in the first half, but Bigsby scored. However, he cashed in his TD before he fumbled at the end of the second quarter.

Etienne finished with the higher snap share at 52% to Bigsby's 28%. But Bigsby dominated the red-zone touches three to zero. Given the upcoming matchup versus a reeling Titans run defense, Bigsby looks to be in the driver's seat to lead this backfield in Week 17. In the first matchup versus the Titans, Bigsby led the ground game with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown.

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in 10 of their last 19 games.
  • The Raiders have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last 11 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last six road games.
  • The Raiders are 14-8-1 ATS at home. They are 5-5-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-8 straight up.
  • The Raiders are 10-4 ATS as home favorites ATS (71%) and 10-3 on the Moneyline at home (77%).
  • The Raiders are 14-10-1 ATS over their last 25 games.
  • Opponents have scored last in four of the Raiders’ last five games.
  • The Raiders have lost the first quarter in their last five games.
  • In 10 of the Raiders' last 11 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Saints’ last eight games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in eight of their last 17 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in their last five road games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games as road underdogs.
  • The Saints have scored first in six of their last eight games.
  • The Saints have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Saints are 2-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Saints are 5-7 ATS as home underdogs (9-16 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-9 straight up. Woof.

Totals:

  • The Raiders’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Raiders' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders' last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Raiders' last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 18-13 toward the under.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Raiders’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Raiders are 4-3 toward the over at home, with games averaging under 42 points per game.
  • Eight of the Saints' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line (44%).
  • Las Vegas is 24th in red zone defense, and the Saints rank 14th.
  • The Saints are 4-4 toward the over at home (46.6 points per game).

Overall:

Before Monday Night's dismemberment of the New Orleans Saints, the Raiders were laying two points on the road. Then MNF happened, where the Saints had virtually zero chance, and the money poured in on Las Vegas. Now, the Raiders are one-point favorites on the road. The Raiders are on a 10-game streak of failing to cover the spread as road favorites. That includes two years ago when LV went on the road to New Orleans, and they lost 24-0.

Admittedly, this is a bit of a noisy trend, given that the Raiders haven't been road favorites since the end of the 2022 season. They are certainly "due" for a road-favored cover. And against the lifeless Saints, it's certainly a possibility.

This unit barely beat the Giants a few weeks ago. And they were lucky to get within a 2-point conversion of beating the Commanders at home. The Saints hung 245 yards of offense and went 3-for-11 on third down. That game shouldn't have been close.

Aidan O'Connell is the best QB in this game, which is reflected in this record. The former Purdue signal-caller is now 6-9 as a starter and 10-4-1 ATS. The Raiders team plays hard for Antonio Pierce, and I'm sure they would love to end their season on a winning streak.

I feel bad that I missed the boat on the Raiders earlier in the week catching points, but if they win by at least a field goal, it won't make a difference in the end.

As for the game total, I think this is a sneaky over spot. 37.5 points is the right number for a matchup between AOC and Spencer Rattler, but I'd expect this Saints offense to function much better at home under better conditions.

Props:

Tre Tucker is under 2.5 receptions in four straight games and in six of his last eight.

The Raiders' top receiver in Week 16 was Brock Bowers, who caught 11 passes for 99 yards on 13 targets (38% Target share), but he was unable to find the end zone. Bowers needs 10 yards in the next two games to break Mike Ditka's NFL record of 1,076 receiving yards by a rookie tight end.

Also, Bowers is five catches shy of the rookie receptions record (via PropTailz). The catch is (literally) Malik Nabers is breathing down his neck down by four receptions. Nabers is a game-time decision this week, so Bowers could put the race on ice with a monster Week 17.

Juwan Johnson contributed with two catches for 27 yards on his two targets while playing 73% of the snaps in Week 16. Johnson's anytime TD odds are so long for a starting TE at +600. Consider the matchup, as the Raiders allow the fifth-most yards and fourth-most TDs to TEs this season. He has scored twice in his last five games.

The Raiders' rushing offense was led by Ameer Abdullah in Week 16, who had seven carries for 38 yards, averaging a solid 5.4 yards per carry, and scored one touchdown. His longest run went for 10 yards. Alexander Mattison had a rough day, carrying the ball 12 times for just 27 yards, averaging a mere 2.3 yards per attempt, but he did find the end zone with a 6-yard rushing touchdown.

Mattison led in the first half with six carries. He also led the backfield with a 57% snap share. Abdullah played 43% of the snaps. Each RB had a red-zone carry. Mattison has been the main red-zone ball carrier for Vegas this season, and I think his odds are long enough at +125 to take a shot on him scoring versus a horrible Saints run defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints defense has allowed the 3rd-highest success rate to designed rushes this season (46.6%), including the 2nd-most yards per carry (4.9) and 3rd-most yards before contact per carry (1.7) on such attempts.

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in the Panthers' last seven games.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in their last six games as underdogs.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 19 of their last 25 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 19 of their last 23 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
  • The Buccaneers have scored last in each of their last five games.
  • Tampa Bay is 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 11 games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 18 games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last seven games following a win.
  • The Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The underdogs have won nine of the last 22 Buccaneers' games.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-3 ATS against the NFC South, with two losses against the Falcons.
  • In four of the Buccaneers' last five games, the first score has been a Buccaneers Touchdown.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Panthers’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers’ last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Panthers’ last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers' last seven games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (7-1 overall record to the over and 48.5 points per game).
  • Nine of the Buccaneers' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 10-5 O/U this season (4-3 at home, averaging nearly 50 points per game).
  • On defense, they have allowed the 14th-most points per game
  • The Buccaneers are scoring the 5th-most points per game in the NFL (28.5) and have the NFL's 5th-best red zone touchdown percentage.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-10 record toward the over).
  • Each of the last four games between the Panthers and Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Three of the Panthers’ last four games as underdogs against NFC opponents have gone to overtime.

Overall:

The Carolina Panthers will not quit. They have played four games down to the wire in recent weeks. Overall, they are 6-1 ATS in the past seven weeks. And that includes a nail-biter in their Week 13 loss to Tampa Bay in overtime by a score of 26-23. A game that they had a chance to win had it not been for a Chuba Hubbard fumble in OT.

The Cardiac Cats have given every opponent (aside from Dallas) a run for their money since Bryce Young’s resurgence. The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs.

I love them in this game, catching nine points on the road.

Especially against Baker Mayfield. He thrives as an underdog on the road. It is not a comfy TD-plus favorite at home.

As for the total, The Buccaneers’ defense can be extremely boom-or-bust. They have allowed nine of their last 12 games to go over the total. And the same can be said for the Panthers. Their defense is creating shootout environments that lead to overs.

I see no reason to shy away from what these teams have been doing all season. Scoring points on both sides to a combined O/U of 21-9. The first game went to 49 points in OT, but it still would have been a push on the closed total of 46 points.

Props

Adam Thielen has at least 4.5 catches in four straight games.

Mike Evans was the top target for Mayfield in Week 16. Evans caught five passes for 69 yards but did not find the end zone. He tied for a team-high with eight targets (19%) while posting 130 air yards (31%) as a constant downfield threat.

Evans needs to average 92 yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. Give me those OVERS. And look to bet his TDs even at some heavier juice. His contract has an escalator that will increase his base salary by $3M next year if he hits 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. He currently had 57 catches for 818 yards and 9 TDs.

Jalen McMillan played a key role last week, catching five passes for 57 yards and scoring one touchdown. He went over 100 air yards on his seven targets. The rookie wide receiver had another long target in the end zone, which was almost a touchdown, but the defensive back came away with the interception.

Regardless, it's been three straight strong games for McMillan. 21% Target share, 4 TDs, and 64 receiving yards per game. 14 catches for 191 yards and 4 TDS. Three straight overs with at least 57 receiving yards.

Trey Palmer and Payne Durham also made contributions, with Palmer catching two passes for 31 yards and Durham adding five receptions for 29 yards on seven targets. Durham stepped in 1-for-1 into the Cade Otton role, playing 93% of the snaps.

Panthers rookie WR Jalen Coker caught two passes for 8 yards, with a long of 4 yards on five targets (21% Target share). He picked up a DPI and caught a TD but was ruled out of bounds. That was one of his two red-zone targets. I like his longer shot odds of scoring a TD versus Tampa Bay.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last eight home games.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Giants are 10-13 ATS over their last 23 games.
  • The Giants were the sixth-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They are 2-6 ATS at home this season.
  • The Giants are 13-9-1 at home ATS and 10-7-1 ATS as home underdogs
  • In each of the Giants' last 10 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • In six of the Giants' last seven games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.
  • The New York Giants are 13-10 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have lost 13 of their last 17 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-15 ATS as road underdogs.
  • Opponents have scored first in six of the Giants' last seven road games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Giants’ last 12 games.
  • New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
  • The favorites have won 23 of the Colts' last 27 games.
  • The Colts are 3-2 ATS as favorites this season
  • The Colts have lost five of their last nine road games.
  • The Colts are 9-1 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
  • The Colts are 6-4 ATS as an underdog (3-7 overall).
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Giants’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 10-14 toward the over in their last 24 games.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in nine of their last 21 games.
  • Eight of the Giants' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 16).
  • Twelve of the Giants' last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the last 11 Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Anthony Richardson-led offenses have scored more than 10 points in the first half (12 starts) only seven times, with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at quarterback this season, the Colts are 4-5-1 toward the over this season (3-5-1 toward the over in the last eight games).
  • The Colts have scored last in seven of their last 10 games.
  • With Joe Flacco: 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 5-4-1 toward the under in their last 10 games.
  • Eleven of the Colts' last 17 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

At the time of this writing, it is unclear whether Anthony Richardson will play for the Colts (Editor’s note: Richardson was ruled out on Saturday). He has not practiced all week, dealing with foot/back injuries. However, if A-Rich doesn't go, I am not sure that the spread moves too much, if at all. Joe Flacco can step in and do what's needed against a terrible Giants team. If I could get this number under seven points, I think I'd go with Indy.

I'd also look to jump on some Colts WR props like Josh Downs over 47.5 yards, etc.

The Colts tend to play in close games regardless of their opposition, and that happened last week when they allowed the Titans to score 23 unanswered points after they got up 38-7.

Indianapolis is 7-5 in close games this season, which means 12 of their 15 games have been decided by one score. All of their seven wins have come by one score or less.

I also have reservations about the Colts run defense. They give up a ton of explosives.

The Colts had allowed over 100 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks before facing Denver in Week 15 and Tennessee in Week 16. Only one clear starting back to face the Colts has finished with fewer than 64 rushing yards since Week 5.

New York's defense is terrible against the deep ball, and we know that Flacco can sling it and make these Colts WRs actually viable. And I'd expect a healthy dose of Jonathan Taylor, regardless of who is under center, to run wild against the Giants’ run defense that has been atrocious all season.

According to Next Gen Stats, The Giants have missed tackles at the 8th-highest rate this season (14.3%). Their missed tackles have been costly, as the Giants have allowed the most yards due to missed tackles and are the only team above the 1,000 mark with 1,040 yards.

Taylor has generated +179 rushing yards over expected this season, the sixth-most among running backs.

Taylor is coming off 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans, generating a career-high +102 rushing yards over expected. The Giants have allowed +429 rushing yards over expected to running backs this season, almost double the next closest team (Raiders, +238) via Next Gen Stats.

As for the total, MetLife Stadium is home to the unders. Aside from a splashy run by JT or a big play from a Colts WR, this game doesn't look like it will be much fun.

Props:

Malik Nabers was the top receiver for the Giants with 14 targets (38% Target share, two red-zone targets), catching seven passes for 68 yards in Week 16. His longest reception was 21 yards to go with 113 air yards (52%).

He had another catch for 23 yards wiped away on a penalty call and an 8-yard catch called back on holding.

Nabers' talent is helping him overcome his bad QB play, as are the plus-matchups he has had. The former LSU product has gone over 65.5 receiving yards in four straight games, with his two highest games at 79 and 82 receiving yards, respectively. He has been narrowly hitting the over on his receiving yards prop, but eventually, I am afraid the Drew Lock effect is going to hurt him. He is also playing through injuries. If he plays, I'd imagine it's more easy receptions than actual downfield targets in an effort to try and get him the rookie receptions record.

My favorite Giants player to target for overs is running back Tyrone Tracy. Last two games with Drew Lock, Tracy has averaged 4.5 catches and seven targets. He also had 38-plus receiving yards in both of those games. The rookie RB has over 18.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games played.

The last five RBs to face the Colts have exceeded their receiving yards projection.

Jonathan Taylor scored the first touchdown in six of his last eight appearances, with the Colts as a favorite.

My Picks:

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Eagles are 5-13-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Cowboys have a 15-point implied team total (the lowest on the Week 17 slate).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles are 14-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 25 games.
  • The Eagles have won each 10 of their last 11 games.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Eagles’ last 20 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 22 games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 16 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 11 games.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys' last 33 games.
  • The Cowboys have scored first in each of their last four games.
  • Dallas is 5-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games as home underdogs.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 2-6 at home this season.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in eight of their last 10 games.

Totals:

  • The Eagles are 15-18 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • Five of the Eagles' last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-6 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 1-5 toward the over at home this season (42 points per game).
  • Each of the Eagles’ last three home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Eagles’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Cowboys' last 22 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Twelve of the Cowboys' last 17 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Cowboys' last 29 games have gone OVER the projected total (68%), including the last 18 of 27 games.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (6-2 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 14-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.

Overall:

We finally got news Friday that Jalen Hurts will miss Week 17 after suffering a concussion in Week 16. Kenny Pickett will draw the start as a 7.5-point home favorite. The sportsbooks seemed to always be counting on Hurts missing, given the spread was Dallas +8.5, now down to +7.5 with the QB downgrade for the Eagles.

This game has so many moving parts, with CeeDee Lamb also out for the Cowboys. The low total of 38 points tells us that this might be a struggle for offensive points. We know the Eagles’ defense is elite, and they are the path for Philly to cover the 7.5-point spread.

The Eagles are 13-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (65%). But 7.5 points is a lot to back Pickett, even at home. After all, the Eagles have been down this road before and not held up. Case in point, the Eagles have failed to cover the spread in their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.

Dallas has been much better ATS on the road this season (5-2), and I feel good about catching a touchdown-plus with them versus Philly.

Because I also have concerns about how the Eagles will respond if they fall behind early. They have been a slow starting offense most of the season, and that could be compounded with a new QB under center. I just don’t like the value of the Eagles at the current line.

The two defenses are each team's strengths in this matchup, so expecting the home team to run away by a TD-plus in a late-season divisional matchup seems a bit far-fetched. Dallas can bring a pass rush that could result in some Pickett turnovers. And even though they are playing for nothing, we know these NFC East teams love to play spoiler.

Props:

Rico Dowdle has finished with more than 11.5 receiving yards one time, with Cooper Rush as the starter in Dallas (14%). He had three receiving yards the last time he played Philly.

Only two passers (Jayden Daniels last week and Lamar Jackson) have hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. Cooper Rush won't have CeeDee Lamb, and he passed for 45 yards the first time he faced the Eagles this season. Rush did not complete a downfield pass in the Week 10 loss to the Eagles (Next Gen Stats). The Eagles’ defense has allowed the 9th-lowest completion percentage (45.8%) and the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt (9.3) on downfield passes this season.

Last week, Brown led the receiving corps with 15 targets (three in the red zone), catching eight passes for 97 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 45 yards. AJB totaled 18 targets, including the three-pass interference call he drew from Marshon Lattimore in coverage. Brown totaled over 150 air yards. (68% air yards share) on a whopping 60% Target share.

Pickett knew exactly where to throw the ball. And you will see the same thing on Sunday.

AJB WR1 szn.

My Picks:

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Sides:

  • The Vikings have won each of their last eight games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 21 games.
  • They are 10-5 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
  • The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last three games.
  • As home favorites, the Vikings are 13-4 on the Moneyline (75%) but just 8-10 ATS (45%).
  • The Vikings have dropped eight of their last 11 home games ATS as a favorite.
  • All but eight of the Vikings' last 29 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (74%).
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in 14 of their last 15 games.
  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Vikings are 8-4-2 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Vikings have been the first to 10 points in their last seven road games.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 19 games.
  • Green Bay is 3-8 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 12-10 on the money line.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 18-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 15-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-10 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last nine of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • The favorites have won each of the Packers' last 11 games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Twelve of the Vikings’ last 18 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Vikings' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Vikings are 8-7 toward the UNDER this season.
  • They are 5-2 toward the under at home, averaging under 47 points per game.
  • The Vikings are 4-11-1 toward the over in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
  • Six of the Vikings’ last seven games against NFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 3-5 O/U this season at home, averaging under 43 points per game.
  • The Packers are 20-14 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Thirteen of the Packers' last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, 7 in Week 14, 14 in Week 15 and 21 in Week 16.
  • That's over 16 first-half points per game since Week 5, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • The Packers have scored first in 12 of their last 13 road games.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 17 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This has to be one of the best games on the Sunday slate, and it's great that the only competition for viewership is Dolphins-Browns in the late afternoon window.

Green Bay opened as two-point road underdogs, and the lines have settled on Minnesota -1.5 at home.

It makes sense, given that the Vikings are playing at home, and they won in Green Bay earlier this season. But are they the better team?

The Packers defense ranks sixth in DVOA, while the Vikings rank third. Total DVOA gives the edge toward the Packers at third overall, compared to Minnesota at No. 7.

Green Bay has been one of the most battle-tested teams all season, with their only losses coming against the best teams in the NFC (Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia).

The Packers can run the ball at an elite level, and Jordan Love looks to be completely over his injuries that hampered him to start the season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Love has completed a league-high 76.0% of his passes and has averaged the third-most yards per attempt (10.2) against the blitz since the Packers Week 10 bye.

In Weeks 1-9, Love recorded the 2nd-lowest completion percentage (51.9%) and averaged the 3rd-fewest yards per attempt (4.6) against the blitz.

This team is dangerous, and I love their long-shot odds for a Super Bowl run.

The Packers have scored 30+ points in five consecutive games (Next Gen Stats).

The Vikings are winning week after week in close games, boasting an 8-1 record in games by less than one score.

And that's why I am concerned about them winning this game. Eventually, their close game "luck" will run out, and the Packers are a worthy opponent to do so.

If you look at all the games the Vikings haven't covered this season, they have all been by field-goal spreads. Last week, they came through in a 3-point win over Seattle on the road. I'm skeptical they do it two weeks in a row.

Therefore, I am backing the Pack on the road with the divisional upset. GB has been profitable as a road underdog (64%), especially compared to the Vikings as home favorites ATS (44%).

As for the total, I know it's high at 48.5 points. But we have two offenses that are game-planning for this matchup to throw the ball. The Packers know they won't have the same success running versus Brian Flores' defense compared to recent opponents.

Vikings' home games typically fall short of the high totals, but it's a different story in this NFC North contests. Six of the Vikings’ last seven games against NFC North opponents have gone OVER the total points line. And the Packers' road games have been very high scoring. Ten of the Packers' last 14 road games have gone OVER the total points line.

I think this game lives up to the billing of a shootout, and Green Bay pulls it off in the end.

One of my favorite bets on this game might be to SGP an Aaron Jones anytime TD with a total alternate of 41.5. On DraftKings Sportsbook, it's a +102 odds payout. Jones has scored a touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last three home games. With a Green Bay revenge game coming up, my touchdown lock of the week will undoubtedly be for Jones to hit paydirt against his former team.

Props:

Sam Darnold has recorded 231+ passing yards in each of the Vikings’ last 10 games.

Justin Jefferson has recorded 81+ receiving yards in each of the Vikings’ last six Sunday games at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The Green Bay linebackers can’t cover. Quay Walker is out for the game. Linebackers have been the nearest defenders in coverage on 28.4% of total targets faced by the Packers defense this season, the highest rate in the NFL per Next Gen Stats.

Packers linebackers have allowed the most receptions (104), 2nd-most yards (1,052), and the 11th-highest completion percentage (78.2%) as a unit.

Six of the last seven TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.

T.J. Hockenson has seen plenty of red-zone targets since returning from IR this season, but he hasn’t found the end zone yet. That will change in Week 17. Hockenson had five targets (15% Target share) last week, catching two passes for 27 yards with a long reception of 19 yards. Josh Oliver was targeted once but did not record a reception. Hockenson's usage was still strong, with a 70% snap rate.

We know that Minnesota drives volume from their opponents. Last week, Geno Smith hit the over on his pass attempts prop that he never goes over on. Why? Because he played against the Vikings.

Five of the last six quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings have all exceeded their passing yards projection by an average of +92 passing yards.

If we are ever going to get a down game for Josh Jacobs as a rusher and a more pass-heavy game script for Love, it's in Week 17.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jacobs has forced 44 missed tackles over his last six games, four more than the next closest player since Week 11.

During the season, Jacobs has forced 92 missed tackles, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL, along with Derrick Henry.  The Vikings defense has recorded the 3rd-lowest missed tackle rate (10.0%) since Week 11. Only the Packers (9.5%) and the Cowboys (9.9%) have missed tackles at a lower rate over that time frame.

Jacobs has rushed for fewer than 70.5 rushing yards in three of his last four games. He was also held to 51 yards the first time these teams played this season.

Recall the last time these teams played: The Vikings took a 28-0 lead to start the game in Week 4, leading the Packers to have their most pass-heavy game (79.0% called pass rate) under Matt LaFleur since Week 9 in 2019.

Even after accounting for game script and situational factors, it was their most pass-heavy game of the season, standing as their only game with a positive pass rate over expected (+2.0%).

Jayden Reed caught 7 of 8 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown, generating a career-high +61 receiving yards over expected in Week 4 against the Vikings.

He caught all 3 of his intermediate targets (10 to 19 air yards) for 60 yards, including his lone touchdown. I think Reed finally pops off for a big game, with Christian Watson looking very iffy to play after logging DNPs on this week’s injury report. If Watson is out, Dontayvion Wicks will also find himself in an elite role versus the Vikings.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 18 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 19 games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last nine home games.
  • The Dolphins have won 24 of their last 31 home games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots and Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night or against the Texans in Week 15.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in eight of their last 10 games.
  • Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-10 overall since 2023. They are 5-11 as an underdog in their last 16 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs.
  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 17 games.
  • The Browns have lost 14 of their last 17 games.
  • The Browns have scored last in each of their last nine home games.
  • The Browns are 7-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 21 road appearances as underdogs and 6-4 as home underdogs (5-3 over the last eight games as home underdogs).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 home games.
  • Cleveland is 10-6 on the Moneyline at home.
  • The Browns have won five of their last seven home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Browns have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 home games against teams with winning records.
  • The Browns have scored last in 13 of their last 15 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in 10 of the Browns’ last 11 games.
  • In 12 of the Browns’ last 13 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 13 games as favorites.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Dolphins' last six home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Miami is 6-2 toward the OVER at home this season (46 points per game).
  • The Dolphins are 6-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa the last nine weeks.
  • Twelve of the Dolphins’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Dolphins' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 4-3 toward the over in their last seven games with Jameis Winston as their starting quarterback. He was 2-1 toward the over on the road. Dorian Thompson-Robinson started Week 16, and the game total went under.
  • Nine of the Browns’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Browns' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Browns' last 18 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 17-15-1 toward the over in their last 32 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season (except for Week 8, Week 12, and Week 13 – two of which were division home matchups).
  • The Browns are 3-4 toward the over at home (40.3 points per game).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 11-5 toward the under at home.

Overall:

Editor’s Note: On Saturday, Tua Tagovailoa was downgraded to DOUBTFUL with a hip injury.

Talk about a gross game. If this game wasn't being played in Cleveland in the month of December, it would be an easy spot to back the Miami Dolphins. They crush the bad teams they play.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record. They have also covered the spread in their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.

The weather in Cleveland won't be cold, but some wind and rain are expected. Tight end David Njoku is also out for the Browns.

Conventional wisdom just says to lay the points with Miami on the road, given how bad the Browns are with Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the QB (1-3 ATS).

In Thompson-Robinson's four starts, no Browns receiver surpassed 66 receiving yards. Njoku has been his leading receiver in three of those starts, and he's not playing in Week 17.

After all, Miami beats (and covers) when they face teams with losing records. So even though it's Cleveland on the road in December in less than ideal conditions, it's not enough to back the Brownies by less than a TD.

Miami will be able to contain the Browns running game spearheaded by Jerome Ford. According to Next Gen Stats, Ford has generated 124 of his 176 rushing yards before contact, resulting in 6.9 yards before contact per carry, most among running backs over the last two weeks (min. 10 carries). The Dolphins’ defense has allowed opposing running backs to generate a league-low 0.3 yards before contact per carry and is the only team that has allowed less than 100 yards before contact this season (94).

Keep in mind that the vast majority of Ford's production came in one huge rush last week. He had three carries in the first half. The last nine RBs that Miami has played have finished under their rushing yards projection.

The major downgrade at quarterback for the Browns is all that matters in my handicapping. As mentioned in the notes above, the Browns haven’t hit their team total other than against Denver and in home divisional games this season.

Therefore, it's the Fins for me.

As for the total, Seth Woolcock and I outlined the under on this week's BettingPros best bets show for Week 17.

Even at the smaller number, the trends and matchup scream disappointment. Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Browns are 3-4 toward the over at home (40.3 points per game).

Props:

Jonnu Smith has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last eight games.

The Browns have allowed the second-most red-zone targets to tight ends this season

My Picks:

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