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NFL Week 17 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

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Here is an early look at the NFL Week 17 odds and trends:

NFL Week 17 Early Odds & Trends

Jets @ Browns – Thursday, Dec. 28 – 8:15PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – CLE -7.5; O/U 36

Jets trends:

  • Previous 16 games following a win: 5-10-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 12-17-1 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 road games: 10-19-1 ATS; 19-11 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 10-20 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 15-19 ATS
  • Robert Saleh (Career): 20-28-1 ATS

Browns trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 home games: 8-2 ATS; 8-1-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 23 games following a win: 8-14-1 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 15-19 ATS
  • Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 15-21-1 ATS

Best bet: Under 36

The Browns have one of the more insane home-and-away defensive splits I’ve ever seen, allowing roughly 20 more PPG on the road than they do at home. This game will be played in front of their home crowd, against a Jets team that lacks any sort of offensive identity or consistency at the QB position. I’ll trust the Browns’ defense at home and take this game to go under the point total.

Lions @ Cowboys – Saturday, Dec. 30 – 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – DAL -6.5; O/U 53.5

Lions trends:

  • Previous 20 road games: 14-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 games following a win: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 18-12 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 20-10 ATS; 18-12 to the Over
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 21-11 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 23-11 ATS
  • Dan Campbell as an underdog (Career): 24-16 ATS

Cowboys trends:

  • Previous 14 games following a loss: 12-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games: 18-12 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 30 home games: 20-10 ATS; 19-11 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 17-13 ATS; 21-9 to the Over
  • Previous 35 non-divisional games: 20-15 ATS
  • Previous 35 conference games: 23-12 ATS
  • Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 109-73-4 ATS

Best bet: Lions +6.5

While Jared Goff has had his struggles away from Detroit, those struggles are mitigated when the road game is indoors, as we just saw on Sunday in Minnesota. The Cowboys have been very profitable in this spot as a home favorite coming off of a loss in recent seasons, but I have this spread closer to a field goal than I do a TD. I’ll take the points with the Lions as road underdogs in this spot where Dan Campbell has also been extremely profitable.

Falcons @ Bears – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – CHI -3; O/U 39

Falcons trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
  • Previous 19 games following a win: 5-13-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 12-18 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 11-20-1 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 14-20 ATS
  • Arthur Smith (Career): 21-27-1 ATS

Bears trends:

  • Previous 14 games following a win: 4-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-11-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 11-17-2 ATS; 18-12 to the Over
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 13-16-3 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 12-21-1 ATS
  • Matt Eberflus as a favorite (Career): 1-4 ATS

Best bet: Falcons +3

We saw the best version of the Atlanta offense against a solid Colts team last week with Taylor Heinecke under center, consistently getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Although the Bears did cover against the Cardinals last week, I still don’t trust them as a favorite, and this Atlanta team is still fighting for a potential NFC playoff spot. I’ll take the points with Atlanta as the road underdog here.

Dolphins @ Ravens – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – BAL -3; O/U 47

Dolphins trends:

  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 27 games following a win: 17-10 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 18-11-1
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 35 conference games: 21-13-1 ATS
  • Mike McDaniel (Career): 18-14 ATS

Ravens trends:

  • Previous 7 games with rest disadvantage: 5-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 29 games following a win: 12-16-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 22-8 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 13-17 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 18-13-1 ATS
  • John Harbaugh (Career): 131-118-8 ATS

Best bet: Ravens -3

We just saw the Ravens put it to the presumptive best team in the league as underdogs of nearly a touchdown, dominating the game on both sides of the ball. While Miami also just beat one of the best teams in the league, I’m still skeptical of them against the better teams, especially on the road. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens here in a game that will potentially decide the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

Titans @ Texans – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – HOU -3.5; O/U 42.5

Titans trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 road games: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 7-11-2 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 23 games following a loss: 12-9-2 ATS
  • Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 28-21-2 ATS

Texans trends:

  • Previous 16 divisional games: 10-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 4-15-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games vs Tennessee: 14-6 ATS
  • Previous 30 home games: 13-17 ATS
  • DeMeco Ryans as a favorite (Career): 1-4 ATS

Best bet: Under 42.5

Both teams have trends to the under in spots like these, and both teams are also dealing with question marks at the QB position. In this late-season divisional matchup, I’ll take the under, with the total currently sitting over the key number 42.5.

Patriots @ Bills – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – BUF -12; O/U 40.5

Patriots trends:

  • Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 6-4 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 8-2 to the Over
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 7-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 5-14-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 21 games following a win: 9-11-1 ATS
  • Previous 35 conference games: 15-18-2 ATS

Bills trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs New England: 6-4 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 3-7 ATS; 3-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 16-12-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 34 games following a win: 15-18-1 ATS
  • Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 36-30-4 ATS

Best bet: Under 40.5

Buffalo tends to be able to dictate the pace of play as a home favorite, with those games tending to go under more often than not. Their offense has lacked some explosiveness from years past, and their defense should be able to contain this New England offense that doesn’t pose a significant threat anywhere on the field. I’ll take another late-season divisional under in this game.

Rams @ Giants – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – LAR -6.5; O/U 42

Rams trends:

  • Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 1-5 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 6-4 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 12-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 27 games following a win: 12-15 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a road favorite: 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 34 non-divisional games: 14-17-3 ATS
  • Sean McVay as a favorite (Career): 42-36-2 ATS

Giants trends:

  • Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 6-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 12-7-1 ATS; 14-5-1 to the Under
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 16-12 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 17-12-1 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 20-9-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a home underdog: 12-17-1 ATS; 21-7-2 to the Under
  • Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 16-9-1 ATS

Best bet: Rams -6.5

The Tommy DeVito magic seems to have run out in New York, while the Rams are rolling right now as they make their push for an NFC Wild Card spot. Stafford and company had no problems outdoors in poor weather conditions against the Ravens two weeks ago, and I don’t foresee them having any issues against this Giants team. I’ll lay the points with the Rams under a touchdown.

49ers @ Commanders – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – 49ers -13.5; O/U 48.5

49ers trends:

  • Previous 12 games with rest disadvantage: 7-5 ATS
  • Previous 14 games following a loss: 8-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games: 18-12 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Over
  • Previous 36 non-divisional games: 20-16 ATS
  • Previous 40 conference games: 27-13 ATS

Commanders trends:

  • Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 3-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 11-7-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 11-15-2 ATS
  • Previous 34 conference games: 14-17-3 ATS
  • Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 60-46-2 ATS

Best bet: Over 48.5

I see the 49ers’ offense being able to get whatever they want, whenever they want, against this Washington defense that has been atrocious all year. The Commanders also might choose to roll with Jacoby Brissett, who has been extremely productive in limited capacity coming in for Sam Howell. I see this game blowing over the point total, with the 49ers doing most of the heavy lifting.

Cardinals @ Eagles – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – PHI – 9.5; O/U 47.5

Cardinals trends:

  • Previous 5 games with rest advantage: 3-2 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 17-13 ATS; 19-10-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 17-11-2 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 20-12 ATS
  • Previous 35 conference games: 16-19 ATS

Eagles trends:

  • Previous 11 games with rest advantage: 4-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 11-7-2 ATS; 16-4 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 12-6-2 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games: 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 35 games following a win: 18-14-3 ATS
  • Previous 35 non-divisional games: 19-15-1 ATS

Best bet: Over 47.5

The Eagles have been an offensive wagon as home favorites under Nick Sirianni, and their defense has been extremely suspect during their 2023 campaign. I see them being able to move the ball at will against the weak Arizona defense, but I think Kyler Murray and company will be able to put up enough points of their own to push this game over the point total.

Saints @ Buccaneers – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – TB -3; O/U 42.5

Saints trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Tampa Bay: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 16 divisional games: 6-9-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 11-18-1 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 road games: 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 19-10-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 34 conference games: 13-20-1 ATS
  • Dennis Allen (Career): 26-40-2 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

  • Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 6-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 29 games following a win: 16-13 ATS
  • Previous 30 home games: 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 13-16-1 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 18-12 to the Over
  • Todd Bowles (Career): 43-51-5 ATS

Best bet: Buccaneers -3

This Saints team is almost an auto-fade right now, as the Derek Carr experiment somehow keeps worsening every week. Their offense is disjointed and discontent, and their defense is consistently put in bad positions. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are picking up steam and now control their own destiny in the NFC South. I’ll ride that momentum and trust them to cover this game as short home favorites.

Panthers @ Jaguars – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – JAC -6.5; O/U 37.5

Panthers trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 5-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 6-14 ATS
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 9-22-1 ATS
  • Previous 33 games following a loss: 11-20-2 ATS
  • Chris Tabor (2023 interim): 3-1 ATS

Jaguars trends:

  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 3-11 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 10-18 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 12-18 ATS
  • Previous 34 non-divisional games: 14-20 ATS

Best bet: Jaguars -6.5

Trevor Lawrence has not been healthy in several weeks now, and this offense has been dealing with other key injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They desperately need this game to keep their hold on the AFC South and find some offensive rhythm going into the postseason. I see this as a perfect get-right game, and I think they cover this spread under a touchdown at home.

Raiders @ Colts – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – IND -3; O/U 44

Raiders trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 13 games with rest disadvantage: 10-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 11-8-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 30 road games: 13-17 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 33 non-divisional games: 14-18-1 ATS
  • Antonio Pierce (2023 Interim): 5-1-1 ATS

Colts trends:

  • Previous 10 home games: 8-2 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 24 games following a loss: 14-10 ATS
  • Previous 32 non-divisional games: 19-13 ATS
  • Shane Steichen as a favorite (Career): 6-1 ATS

Best bet: Raiders +3

This Raiders team has found a whole new life under Antonio Pierce, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They actually still have an outside shot to make the playoffs, and a win over Indianapolis would go a long way toward improving their chances. The Colts were running hot over the middle of the season, but they had the benefit of some injury luck and were finally exposed against the Falcons this past weekend. I like the Raiders to keep this one inside the number, and I think they’re absolutely live to win outright.

Steelers @ Seahawks – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 4:05 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – SEA -3.5; O/U 41.5

Steelers trends:

  • Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 5-3 ATS
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 6-8 ATS
  • Previous 24 games following a win: 10-13-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 17-13 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 17-12-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 30 road games: 17-13 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a road underdog: 18-12 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 33 non-divisional games: 15-17-1 ATS
  • Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 56-31-3 ATS

Seahawks trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 7-3-1 ATS
  • Previous 14 non-conference games: 7-5-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 22 games following a win: 8-12-2 ATS
  • Previous 30 home games: 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 11-17-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under

Best bet: Seahawks -3.5

I feel that last week was the classic back-against-the-wall Mike Tomlin spot as a home underdog on Christmas Eve, and I’m not so sure that same success travels with them across the country to Seattle. I like the Seahawks to cover this spread as a medium-sized favorite in a game they desperately need to keep pace in the NFC playoff race.

Chargers @ Broncos – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – DEN -5.5; O/U 38.5

Chargers trends:

  • Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 2-6 ATS
  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 17-11-2 to the Under

Broncos trends:

  • Previous 6 games with rest disadvantage: 2-4 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
  • Previous 28 games following a loss: 12-15-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 12-17-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 30 home games: 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 9-20-1 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 34 conference games: 13-21 ATS

Best bet: Chargers +5.5

The Broncos were a benefactor of some pretty stark turnover luck over the middle of the regular season, and we just saw on Saturday night what can happen when that turnover luck reverses. The Chargers have proven they can play competent football with Easton Stick at QB, and I think they keep this game within the number.

Bengals @ Chiefs – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 4:25 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – KC -7.5; O/U 45.5

Bengals trends:

  • Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 6-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 17 games following a loss: 10-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 18-11-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 39 conference games: 23-16 ATS
  • Zac Taylor as an underdog (Career): 24-19 ATS

Chiefs trends:

  • Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 3-6-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 13 games following a loss: 7-5-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 12-17-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 39 conference games: 15-23-1 ATS

Best bet: Bengals +7.5

This Chiefs team has shown some real warts recently, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t trust them to cover a spread over a touchdown against anyone right now, as we just saw them lose at home to a Raiders team with an interim head coach and backup rookie QB. Give me the points with the Bengals in this game.

Packers @ Vikings – Sunday, Dec. 31 – 8:20 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines – MIN -1.5; O/U 45.5

Packers trends:

  • Previous 16 divisional games: 9-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 27 games following a win: 16-11 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-11 ATS
  • Matt LaFleur as an underdog (Career): 18-8 ATS

Vikings trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 6-2-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 home games: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 16 divisional games: 7-9 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 7-13 ATS; 14-5-1 to the Over

Best bet: Over 45.5

Green Bay may have the worst defense in the NFL at the moment, evident by their 30-point concession to the Panthers on Sunday. I see the Vikings getting whatever they want on offense, and I think the Packers will contribute enough to push this game over the point total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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