NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Trent Conner |
Dec 29, 2023

Someone must score the gameâ€™s first touchdown (if there is even a touchdown to be scored), and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 17.

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NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs (WR â€“ BUF): +650 via DraftKings

Diggs has been an afterthought in the Bills' offense recently. He only has 101 yards over his past three games and has caught 13 out of 24 targets. The Patriots have been getting beat through the air since losing cornerback Christian Gonzalez early in the season. They have allowed 19 touchdowns and forced nine interceptions this season. Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Diggs should look to get back on the same page this week as they try to secure their playoff spot.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR â€“ BAL): +1400 via DraftKings

OBJ has taken a backseat since having 97 yards and a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams a few weeks ago. He has three catches for 27 yards in the two games since then. Zay Flowers has not practiced this week, and his status is up in the air due to a calf injury. The trio of Beckham, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor should collectively share the targets left behind by Flowers. Beckham has the most red zone targets (11) out of the three, but Agholor has more red zone touchdowns. Beckham should contribute more in Flowers' absence in a meaningful matchup with the Dolphins.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

Zamir White (RB â€“ LV): +600 via FanDuel

It does not look like Josh Jacobs will suit up on Sunday, which means Zamir White gets the carries. White has filled in for Jacobs the past two weeks and has 214 rushing yards on 39 attempts. The Colts have allowed 130.7 rushing yards per game and 21 rushing touchdowns this season. Aidan O'Connell has not provided much production from the quarterback position, so the Raiders should lean on their ground game again this week.

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears

Kyle Pitts (TE â€“ ATL): +1600 via FanDuel

There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and the quarterback has struggled to do it all season. Whether it is Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke under center, the offense struggles to score points and provide consistent production to the best players. Pitts has two touchdowns in his past three games and draws a favorable matchup this week. The Bears struggle against tight ends and have allowed seven receiving touchdowns to the tight end position this season.

Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Adam Thielen (WR â€“ CAR): +1800 via DraftKings

Bryce Young and the offense had 300 passing yards for the first time this season, and they are rolling. They are entering another favorable matchup against the Jaguars with a depleted secondary. The bye week was a turning point in the season for Thielen. He caught four touchdowns through Eeek 6 and has not had one since. He also does not have a 100-yard game in that span. This past week was his best since the bye, finishing with six receptions and 94 yards. Hopefully, Young can string together a couple of good games.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cade Otton (TE â€“ TB): +1900 via FanDuel

Otton has a great matchup this week. The Saints struggle against tight ends and have allowed seven touchdowns to the position, which ties for the fourth most this season. Otton only had one target this past week but is third in red-zone targets. He also scored in week four in the first meeting with the Saints. Baker Mayfield has been fantastic this season with a new team and should have no problems against this secondary. He is also +1200 on DraftKings, so the value is amazing.

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles

D'Andre Swift (RB â€“ PHI): +700 via DraftKings

Swift has been on the wrong side of things when it comes to touchdowns this season. He always seems to get tackled at the one-yard line, and Jalen Hurts finishes it with a "tush push." The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs this season. They also allow 4.7 yards per carry and 147 rushing yards per game. Swift can break off a long run and find paydirt this week.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants

Demarcus Robinson (WR â€“ LAR): +1200 via DraftKings

Robinson has been a touchdown train for the past four games. He has also played full-time the previous three weeks and supplanted Tutu Atwell as the third receiver on the team. He and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a productive chemistry over the past few weeks. The Giants allow 134.2 passing yards per game and should have trouble guarding the Rams' weapons.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Nico Collins (WR â€“ HOU): +850 via DraftKings

C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol and should return as a starter this week. Collins had four receptions for 18 yards and a touchdown this past week with Case Keenum under center against a tough Cleveland Browns secondary. The Titans are not good at defending the deep pass and do not get interceptions. They allow 225.7 passing yards per game and only have four interceptions this season. Collins should be more productive this week and has a chance to add to his touchdown total against a soft secondary.

San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders

George Kittle (TE â€“ SF): +950 via FanDuel

Kittle has torched favorable matchups this season. He has finished as the top tight end three times this season, including this past week, when he did it without scoring a touchdown. Kittle faces the Commanders this week, who have allowed 33 passing touchdowns this season. The 49ers will want to get back on track this week, and Kittle has a decent chance of scoring. He is also +700 on two sportsbooks, so this is good value.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks

Najee Harris (RB â€“ PIT): +800 via FanDuel

The Steelers have been featuring Harris as the primary goal-line back, which is massive in this offense. They struggle to move the ball efficiently and rely on their two-man backfield to move the ball. Harris has 26 red zone attempts to Jaylen Warren's 13 this season. The Seahawks could be without DK Metcalf, who popped up on the injury report with a back injury. Harris is good value and the safest play available.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Mixon (RB â€“ CIN): +1000 via FanDuel

The Chiefs have been struggling recently, so it is not impossible to think the Bengals score first. Mixon offers the best value available at +1000. He is +700 at two sportsbooks, and he is a player who will be involved early. The Chiefs allow 113.5 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. Mixon is also involved in the passing attack, averaging 3.9 targets per game. The value and usage are there, so take a chance on a good player.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Austin Ekeler (RB â€“ LAC): +750 via DraftKings

The Broncos have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season, the worst in the league. The Chargers have not moved the ball well on the ground this season, but Ekeler can get the job done against this unit. Ekeler has not found the end zone many times over the second half of the season but has a pretty good chance this week. He is also +600 at another sportsbook, so the value is better than most options in this game. Jarrett Stidham has not impressed in his time as a starter, so take the opposing running back with value.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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