NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2022)
Someone must score the first TD of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
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NFL Week 17 First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (2022)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne
Odds: +2500 via BetMGM
The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa this week, as he sustained a concussion against the Packers last week. Teddy Bridgewater is in line to start for the Dolphins, who are on a four-game losing streak. Both teams have a chance at a wild card spot, with the Dolphins currently holding the last wild card spot, and the Patriots are just outside looking in. Kendrick Bourne stepped up last week and almost helped the Patriots win in the second half last week. He saw nine targets and one rush attempt as he became one of the few options for the Patriots on offense due to injury. Many pass-catching options have not made it back to the practice field, which gives Bourne another opportunity to display his ability against the Dolphins’ secondary, which ranks twenty-eighth against the pass this season.
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
Greg Dortch
Odds: +1200 via BetMGM
Dortch saw 11 targets last week with Trace McSorley under center. He caught 10 of those for 98 yards and had three carries for 25 yards. Dortch looked dynamic with the ball in his hands, and the Cardinals have no reason to go away from him this week. James Conner has missed practice all week with an illness, so he is in jeopardy of not playing. Dortch is a great value play at this price and someone who will get plenty of touches.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Travis Etienne Jr.
Odds: +600 via BetMGM
The Texans are the worst defense against the run this season, allowing 168.6 rushing yards per game. Most teams enter the week with a game plan to run the football, and the Jaguars should be no exception. Etienne has averaged 13.6 rushing attempts per game and has topped 15 for three weeks in a row against stout run defenses. In week five, Etienne had 10 carries for 71 yards but split time with James Robinson, who does not play for the Jaguars anymore. Etienne could be in for a monster day in this matchup and is worth a shot to score first.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce
Odds: +450 via BetMGM
Kelce has not found the end zone since week 12 against the Rams but is still pacing the Chiefs in receiving. He is averaging nine targets per game, and his quarterback is now leading the MVP race. The Chiefs are in contention for the number one seed in the AFC and have good matchups to end the regular season. Ideally, they would like to get up early and have a chance to rest their starters, which means they will go to Kelce early and often. The ball typically gets spread around in this offense, but Kelce is the one who receives the lion’s share of the targets. He is a solid play this week, even if he is the favorite.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Saquon Barkley
Odds: +400 via BetMGM
The Colts did not look good with Nick Foles under center last week but have decided to keep him as the starter. He threw for three interceptions with a passer rating of 31.9. There is no reason to believe he will perform better this week, and it may lead to an easy Giants victory. Barkley is the best player on the Giants’ offense and should see a ton of volume. Last week, he received 14 carries and 10 targets while finding the end zone on the ground. The Colts allow 122.2 rushing yards per game and have allowed 137.7 yards per game during their previous three games. Saquon is the favorite for a reason and has the most upside to score first.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Devonta Smith
Odds: +600 via Caesars Sportsbook
It is unclear whether Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew will start this week, which makes this choice difficult. Hurts returned to the practice field for the first time in a limited capacity on Thursday but still may not be able to start on Sunday. A.J. Brown was also limited in practice on Thursday, so the Eagles may play it safe this week to prepare for the playoffs. Minshew and Smith hooked up for two touchdowns against the Cowboys last week and have good chemistry. With Hurts or Minshew under center, Smith is a solid play.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
D’Onta Foreman
Odds: +1000 via BetMGM
The Panthers looked great last week against the Lions when they ran for 320 yards as a team. The Buccaneers did not look good beating the Cardinals in overtime. The Panthers held the Lions to just 45 yards on the ground and will be going up against the worst rushing offense this week. The Panthers can take the division from the Buccaneers, so this game means a lot. The Buccaneers allow 120.3 rushing yards per game, so Foreman is a solid play at this price.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson
Odds: +1400 via BetMGM
The Commanders are switching quarterbacks to try and hold onto their wild card spot. Carson Wentz is getting the start this week, which presents some value on the Commanders’ side with Jahan Dotson, who was targeted nine times last week and scored one touchdown. He has scored in three consecutive weeks and is showing some late-season progression as a rookie. The Browns allow 201.5 passing yards per week, which ranks eighth in the league, but Dotson will receive less attention than his counterpart, Terry McLaurin.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Jamaal Williams
Odds: +600 via BetMGM
The Lions did not run the football well last week against the Panthers, but they have a far better matchup this week. The Bears allow 151.2 rushing yards per game and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (21) this season. Williams had the most carries (7) last week, and there is no reason to believe he will lose any this week despite Jared Goff leading the team in rushing last week. Williams still has the most rushing touchdowns this season, even with three scoreless games in a row. He is at a great price to play this week and has an outstanding matchup.
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Garrett Wilson
Odds: +675 via Caesars Sportsbook
Wilson will likely benefit the most from Mike White starting at quarterback again. During his starts earlier this season, Wilson accumulated 19 catches for 335 yards and two touchdowns on 30 targets. The Seahawks have allowed 217.9 passing yards per game and are ranked thirty-first against the run this season. The Jets should be able to move the ball against this defense, and the chemistry between White and Wilson should be on full display.
San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Brandon Aiyuk
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Raiders benched Derek Carr this week, and Jarrett Stidham is replacing him. He is facing the most difficult defensive matchup in the league, which does not bode well for the level of success he can have. On the other side, Brock Purdy has looked tremendous since replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, despite Deebo Samuel missing time with a sprained MCL. Brandon Aiyuk is leading the team in receiving yards this season while averaging 6.5 targets per game. The Raiders allow 244.3 passing yards per game, which ranks twenty-seventh in the league. Aiyuk has a solid chance of finding the end zone against the Raiders’ porous pass defense.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard
Odds: +750 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Packers are three and half point favorites at home versus the Vikings this week, and the Vikings have primarily been a second-half team this season. Aaron Rodgers has been limited at practice this week with a knee injury, but he should be good to start. Christian Watson has not practiced this week after injuring his hip last week against the Dolphins. Lazard led the team in targets with 11 and could see an increased workload this week. Rodgers likes for his receivers to be on the same page as him, which Lazard is, and he may look his way more as opposed to the younger guys on the receiving corps. The Vikings also allow the most passing yards per game (281.5) of any team in the league this season, so it is an excellent matchup.
Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers
Joshua Kelley
Odds: +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will be entering the playoffs for the first time in the Justin Herbert era. They can increase their seed but have also dealt with injuries for most of the season. It would not be surprising if Austin Ekeler is rested more after injuring his knee against the Colts last week, and Joshua Kelley would be the beneficiary. He is their primary option on offense and needs him to be healthy for the playoffs. The Rams have allowed 135.7 rushing yards per game in their previous three games and are missing Aaron Donald up front. Kelley ran the ball nine times last week and 10 the week prior, so it would not be surprising if he receives more touches this week.
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