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NFL Week 17 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week, Nick Mullens threw for 411 yards against the Detroit Lions to give us a +850 winner. This week, we turn our attention to a busy slate that features 24 teams still alive for a playoff spot. 

Here are the best longshot bets for Week 17 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 17 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dak Prescott Over 348.5 Passing Yards (+500)

After an unbelievable November, Prescott has cooled off considerably over the past couple weeks. He hasn't thrown for more than 275 yards since Week 13, and he's completed fewer than 63% of his passes in his last three games.

This week, he faces a very favorable matchup. The Lions allowed Mullens to throw for over 400 yards last week, and there is no reason to think Prescott won't do something similar on Saturday. 

The Lions currently rank 23rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed. With how their offense has been playing, this should be a very high-scoring game. Prescott will need to throw all four quarters in a favorable matchup, and he may become the second passer in a row to throw for over 400 against the Lions. We'll play it safer than that, however, and take him to throw for 349 or more.

Carolina Panthers Over 24.5 points (+490)

The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has been a disaster over the past four weeks. They're allowing an average of 29.5 points per game, and they've allowed at least 30 points in three of their last four. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an AC joint sprain, so even if he plays, he's unlikely to be very effective against a good Panthers' defense. That's going to set up bad field positions for the Jaguars' defense throughout the entire game.

The Panthers rank 29th in the league in points per game. In their loss to the Green Bay Packers last week, they scored 30 points for the first time all season. Bryce Young threw for over 300 yards for the first time in his career, and he may hit that mark again facing the Jaguars' 29th-ranked secondary.

Trusting the Panthers' offense is difficult, but they've shown some signs of improvement throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a mess and the defense has been the worst unit in the league over the last month.

Patrick Mahomes 350+ Passing Yards (+750)

The Chiefs' offense continued its below-average play on Monday, as they scored just 14 points against the Raiders. They've now scored fewer than 20 points in three of their last four games, and Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 275 yards in each of those contests.

The Bengals' defense is exactly what Mahomes and the Chiefs need to get right this week. The Bengals have the fifth-worst pass defense in the NFL. They allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for 290 yards last week on just 17 completions.

Mahomes has only thrown for more than 350 yards once this season. But with his team in desperate need of a win, he'll have a great game against a Bengals defense that allowed an average of 263.7 passing yards per game over the past three weeks to Rudolph, Mullens, and Gardner Minshew, all of whom are significantly worse quarterbacks than Mahomes.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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