NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Commanders (2023)
Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into 49ers vs. Commanders.
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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: 49ers vs. Commanders
Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
Sides:
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers’ last eight games.
- The Commanders have lost each of their last six games.
- Still, Washington has covered as an underdog in 59% of their games.
- The 49ers have covered as favorites in 57% of their games.
Game Total:
- Each of the Commanders’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
- These teams average 49 points scored.
- They have also combined for an 18-12 record toward the over
- 5 of the Commanders' last 6 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The one "under" was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
- If Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.
- When they allow 20 points on defense - 9-2 toward the OVER.
- What are the 49ers' odds of scoring over 19.5 points? You can't even find odds that low it's such a lock.
- Their implied odds to score 21 points? -700. Aka an implied probability of 87.5%.
- The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 11 of their 15 games played this season.
Overall:
The 49ers offense is a Death Star, and there's no doubt they will bounce back offensively against the worst defense in the NFL. Coming off a prime-time embarrassing loss, they might not ever stop scoring points. Still, I am a firm believer in the process behind backing double-digit home dogs. Jacoby Brissett being under center makes it big difference in my estimation for a backdoor cover. Brissett has rallied the Commanders in back-to-back weeks, so I think he can keep things interesting from a point-spread perspective. Still, my best bet is just on the "over" in this game.
The 49ers will score 30-plus points easily, and I think the Commanders can post at least 20 with Brissett taking the reins. The 49ers defense has allowed an average of 30-plus points in back-to-back games.
Props:
This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week on flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just three games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. The last 4 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes.
My Picks
- Over 49.5
- Commanders +13
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