NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Bengals vs. Chiefs (2023)
Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Bengals vs. Chiefs.
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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Bengals vs. Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sides:
- The Chiefs have won 12 of their last 13 games following a loss.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Chiefs' last 8 games.
- The Chiefs have been overrated ATS at home, going 0-3 ATS in their last three home games (0-3 straight up).
- KC is 43% ATS as favorite this season.
- CIN is 40% ATS as an underdog this season.
Game Total:
- The Chiefs games are averaging fewer than 40 points scored at home this season.
- 6-1 toward the under.
- Six of the Chiefs' last 8 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- 8 of the Chiefs' last 11 games overall have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Bengals’ last five road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- These teams average 42 points scored
- Six of the Bengals' last 7 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- 7 of their last 10 games have hit the over. Their last 8 of 9 games have all surpassed 41.5 points. They have been riding high, but this is where the over-train regression hits versus another elite defense.
Overall:
Bengals No. 2 QB Jake Browning is following in the footsteps of a lot of plucky backup QBs we have seen this season. They start hot for a couple of games without expectations when facing favorable defensive matchups. But as more tape is revealed, defensive coordinators devise ways to stop these backup QBs from sustaining success. Browning pulled the rabbit out of his hat two weeks ago, orchestrating a comeback to win in OT. They scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. But that game shouldn't have been close. And they didn't cover the 3.5-point spread. They shouldn't have won against a stronger Minnesota defense.
We faded the Bengals last week versus the Steelers, and they laid an egg versus the Steelers. Up against another tough defense - on the road vs KC no less - will be tough for Browning to overcome. He has struggled against defenses not named the Colts/Jaguars. Without Ja'Marr Chase for another week, the Bengals offense will struggle.
And this is a great bounce-back spot for the Chiefs’ offensive to finally put points up with projected high yardage totals. Their offense despite all the ups-and-downs is 5th in the third-down conversion rate. The Bengals have the 5th-worst 3rd-down defense. Also, last in yards per attempt faced (7.7).
The Bengals red-zone defense has also been much worse on the road. The 6th-highest scoring rate allowed.
The biggest mismatch is that the Bengals’ defense cannot stop the run. But a run-heavy game script projects for a lower-scoring affair, especially if it's the plodding Clyde Edwards-Helaire spearheading the rushing attack.
KC's track record at home just isn't there to back them as 7-point favorites - 43% ATS as a favorite this season - even if they win outright. Rather take the under at 44 points, and ride the streak of the Chiefs’ suffocating defense pushing games UNDER the projected totals.
Props:
The Bengals have allowed the most receptions per game to tight ends (6.8) this season.
9/11 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.
My Picks:
- Under 44
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