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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Cardinals vs. Eagles (2023)

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Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Cardinals vs. Eagles.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Cardinals vs. Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (-12) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • Arizona playing on the road this season...1-7 straight up (3-5 ATS).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in December.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 7 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • This Philadelphia team is not what its record at 11-4 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week.
  • They are 3-6-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 or more points. They have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

Game Total:

  • The Eagles average nearly 60 points per game at home: 6-1 toward the over
  • Each of the Eagles’ last five home games against NFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams are averaging over 47.5 points scored
  • The Eagles defense is horrible. The defense cannot stop anyone in the red zone. 29th in red-zone conversion rate allowed.
  • The Cardinals have the 4th-best red-zone offense
  • Each of the Cardinals' last six road games has failed to go OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals are 0-7-1 toward the UNDER on the road this season. They pushed last week at 43 points.
  • Arizona is averaging 330 yards on offense with Kyler Murray (league average).
  • 23 points per game over their last 2 contests against the 49ers, Bears and Steelers. The Eagles have averaged 21 points per game over the same span

Overall:

The Eagles are going to be able to run ALL over the Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season. But again, running the ball - like last week - is not indicative of covering massive point spreads. Too many conflicting trends going against the Eagles to back them with 10.5 points at home. Rather take the underdogs in a projected shootout.

Or just bet the over. I doubt we see Arizona go the full season without a game total hitting the over on the road this season. If there's any spot that will go over the projected total, it's in this game here.

Props:

We should see a pass-heavy script from Arizona against the Eagles' horrible secondary that is allowing the 3rd-most passing yards per game to QBs. Philadelphia has also been a home to overs hitting an extremely high rate. Take the over on Murray's 223.5 passing yards prop this week. 4 of the last 8 teams the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Again, why I like the over in this game.

Trey McBride was held in check last week, with 6 catches for 31 yards on 8 targets (22%). Still, he's the alpha in the passing game, so I'd bet he rebounds versus the Eagles - 27th in DVOA versus tight ends this season. I like the MORE THAN on his 61.5 receiving yards. He has 60 receiving yards in 4 of his last 6 games. The Eagles have allowed exactly 61.5 yards to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks.

Other player prop nuggets to pay attention to:

  • The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the 2nd fewest receptions to tight ends this season. One tight end they have faced since Week 6 has gone for 5 catches.
  • Jalen Hurts has thrown for fewer than 230.5 yards in 5 of his last 7 games.
  • The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs this season.

My Picks

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