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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Ravens (2023)

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Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Dolphins vs. Ravens.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Dolphins vs. Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Miami Dolphins

Sides:

  • Miami is 6-2 ATS and 7-1 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but 3 contests.
  • They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 10-2 overall as a favorite.
  • But Miami is 4-3 ATS on the road. 33% cover rate as an underdog.
  • The road team has covered the spread in four of the Dolphins' last 6 games.
  • The Ravens have won nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.

Game Total:

  • Baltimore is 4-3 toward the over at home this season averaging 49 points scored
  • Miami's defense has played better than how they started the season, allowing fewer than 300 yards per game in six of their last 8 games. 4-4 toward the O/U.
  • What also works in the Dolphins' favor is that do not allow explosive plays - similar to that of the Buffalo Bills.

  • Six of the Dolphins’ last seven games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams have averaged 48 points scored
  • The Baltimore defense is allowing the league's lowest yards per attempt (5.0) and the third-best red-zone conversion rate. 5th-best defense on 3rd downs.

Overall:

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best from Lamar Jackson in another marquee matchup. Given the Dolphins' struggles on the road - and versus the better teams in the NFL - I'll take the Ravens with the field goal plus the hook. Although this number has been bet down in similar spots, so I’d be aggressively hopping on the Ravens -3.

As for the total, I don't like it as much as the Ravens’ side. Lean toward under at 47 points with the Ravens’ elite defense and the Dolphins’ underrated defensive squad.

Props:

The Dolphins are allowing the 10th-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.3). 7 of the last 10 tight ends to face the Dolphins have surpassed their receiving yards prop. Isaiah Likely has 40 or more yards in four straight games. He’s gone OVER his receiving yards prop in all four contests.

Since the Dolphins' Week 10 bye week, they have allowed one RB to rush for more than 40 yards against them. Justice Hill has not rushed for 30 yards since Week 9. He's the change-of-pace back for Baltimore that does not project for a massive workload. His rushing attempts prop is just 8.5 carries, with his projection on BettingPros toward the under.

My Picks:

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