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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Falcons vs. Bears (2023)

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Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Falcons vs. Bears.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Falcons vs. Bears

Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Chicago covered against a losing team for the first-time last week.
  • The underdogs have won eight of the Falcons’ last 10 games.
  • Chicago is 2-1 as a favorite. 50% ATS.
  • Chicago is also 4-3 at home, and 4-0-1 ATS in Justin Fields' last five starts. Against all but one team with a winning record. 3-2 straight up.
  • Essentially, since the Bears defense started playing halfway decent, Fields has been able to orchestrate more winning performances straight up and ATS.
  • When Chicago has established an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina, Detroit and Arizona- their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games.
  • The Falcons boast the 5th-best run defense in DVOA this season. 3rd-best defense in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season.
  • The Falcons are 5-2 at home versus 2-5 on the road.
  • Away from Atlanta, they have averaged fewer than 15 points per game.

Game Total:

  • The Bears have averaged 43.4 points at home to a 3-3-1 O/U record.
  • Six of the Bears' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • 3-0-1 toward the under the last 4 weeks
  • Each of the Falcons’ last nine games as underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 41 points per game
  • These teams have combined for 2 overs in their last 10 games played
  • Atlanta has the No. 1 red-zone defense and ranks 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate faced. The Colts have not been great in the red zone/third down, and their offense struggled as a result in Week 16.
  • The Bears have the 32nd-ranked red-zone defense and rank 29th in 3rd-down conversion rate faced.
  • Their offense ranks 12th in both those categories

Overall:

Taylor Heinicke started last week for Desmond Ridder and continued the impressive record that the Falcons boast at home. Heinicke completed 23 of 33 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown. In the receiving corps, Bijan Robinson again led with 50 yards with 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share).

But as we have said in many versions of the BP Primer, Atlanta is not a team you want to bet on the road.

Therefore, I'll opt for an improved Bears team that has won four straight home games. Their defense is underrated and that will present issues for a Falcons indoor team that has not played well away from Atlanta at any point this season.

But the total might be the best approach to this game. Going heavily toward the under at 38 points. Both defenses are vastly underrated. The Falcons offense plays worse on the road. Both teams can stop the run. And Fields might be without some of these top passing options, with Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney banged up.

Props:

The Bears have one of the league's best-run defenses, ranking top-5 in fewest yards per carry allowed this season. The Falcons RBs will struggle rushing versus the Bears are a no-run defense. Other than the Lions' RBs, no RB has rushed for 60 yards versus the Bears' defense since Week 4.

Instead, look for the over on the Bijan Robinson’s receiving yards and receptions. Last week, Robinson led with 50 receiving yards 7 catches and 10 targets (31% target share). Look for Robinson to see crazy usage as a receiver yet again. The rookie route participation (30-plus routes run) is off-the-charts. And the matchup is divine. Chicago has allowed the most receiving yards (59.1) and second-most receptions to RBs this season (6.5). Robinson has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games.

8 of the last 13 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 6 of the last 9. Taylor Heinicke under 200.5 passing yards.

The Bears' pass defense has improved dramatically since a rocky start.  At home, they have allowed the league's 7th-lowest yards per attempt (5.5). No QB they have faced in Chicago has thrown for more than 240 yards.

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