NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Panthers vs. Jaguars (2023)
Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Panthers vs. Jaguars.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>
NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Panthers vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Sides:
- The Panthers have lost each of their last eight road games.
- In each of the Panthers’ last six games, the first score has been an opponent Touchdown.
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
- They are 67% ATS as a favorite this season, while just 33% as an underdog.
- Only the Saints are worse ATS than the Panthers (4-10-1) as they boast the worst record overall in the NFL.
- With offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays in Carolina, the Panthers are a surprising 4-2 ATS. 2-0 ATS over their last two games (but both at home)
Game Total:
- The Jaguars average 45 points at home (4-3 O/U)
- Seven of the Panthers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- These teams average 43 points
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in four of their last six games (all games going over that matched the threshold)
- The Panthers have scored more than 23 points twice with Bryce Young at QB.
Overall:
The Panthers defense can't stop the run. That's a mismatch the Jaguars can take advantage of with Travis Etienne Jr. Expect more running of the football with a team that is looking to protect their banged-up QB. At this time, it's unknown whether Lawrence will play. But it's trending like he will play, regardless of him being at 100%.
The TD spread suggests Lawrence will play, and it's heavily weighing the Jaguars' total body of work versus what they have done over the last four weeks. Because it's been bad. All in all, I can't touch the sides here given Lawrence's health status, after he failed to finish last week's contest. And trusting Carolina's pass offense on the road after an inflated home performance against Green Bay's reeling defense feels like a trap. Therefore, the move for me is right back to the under at 38 points. The Panthers' pass defense is underrated. And it's likely a number I'll wait to bet on until Lawrence is confirmed to start.
Props:
Carolina is a run-funnel and they have an underrated secondary. 13 of 14 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. The last 11? All unders. Take the under on Trevor Lawrence's passing yards if he plays in the game.
Carolina is also facing the 2nd-fewest targets and 4th-fewest yards to WRs this season. More reasons to fade the Jags WRs as well in the player props market.
The Panthers' defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. 9 of the last 12 tight ends Carolina has faced have gone UNDER their projected receptions totals.
No team has allowed more passing yards in the last five weeks than Jacksonville. Only 3 QBs they have faced this season have NOT gone over their passing yards projection.
The Jaguars have also allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season. D.J. Chark has gone OVER 23.5 receiving yards in four of his last 5 games. Averaging 35.5 Rec YDs per game this season in 13 games played.
My Picks
- Under 38
- Calvin Ridley under 58.5 receiving yards
- Bryce Young over 173.5 passing yards
- DJ Chark Jr. over 23.5 receiving yards
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket