NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Rams vs. Giants (2023)
Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Rams vs. Giants.
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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Rams vs. Giants
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sides:
- The favorites have won each of the Rams’ last eight games.
- They are 75% ATS as a favorite. 7-1 as a favorite.
- The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
- The Rams are now 8-5-2 ATS this season.
- The Giants are 4-2 ATS over their last six games.
Game Total:
- East Rutherford New Jersey is 5-10 toward the under this season
- 34 points scored on average
- Five of the Giants’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- These teams average 42.5 points scored
- Still, the Rams defense isn't great. Only 4x they have allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
- Only Seattle, Arizona and Washington failed to crack 300 yards.
- Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.
- The Rams are 6-4 toward the under their last 10 games.
- In the Giants last 6 games, the team is 4-2 toward the over. Point totals of 66, 46, 50 and 58 when the games have gone over.
- New York has scored 20-plus points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Overall:
The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They dominated the Saints, who one week previously dominated this Giants team. Swapping Tommy DeVito for Tyrod Taylor works in the Giants' favor - at least offensively - which scares me slightly from backing the Rams as 6.5-point road favorites. We have seen these backup QBs all year long cover the spread when they are first called upon, and Taylor under center will make it tougher for the Rams to win in full blowout fashion. Taylor helped the Giants cover last week, and went 3-0 ATS in his three starts prior to his injury.
I'll avoid choosing sides and just take the over at 44.5 points.
Props:
11 of the 12 most comparable WRs to Darius Slayton have gone OVER their receptions prop when they faced the Rams' defense. LA is allowing the 7th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs this season, but the 7th-fewest to slot WRs.
The Rams' defense ranks 12th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game and No. 2 in fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. 2 RBs they have faced have gone over 30 receiving yards.
The Rams also play a ton of zone coverage and boast one of the worst PFF grade defending while in zone coverage this season.
Over the last 2 weeks, Sean McVay has dialed up an offense that has finished -7% in pass rate over expectation. They threw the ball on early downs on just 39% of the offensive plays (30th). This team's identity is to run the ball and they will continue to do so against the Giants - who rank 27th in run defense DVOA.
Therefore, take the under on Matthew Stafford's pass attempts set at 35.5. He has 36-plus attempts in just 2 of his last 7 games.
My Picks
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