NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Titans vs. Texans (2023)
Let's dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Titans vs. Texans.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>
NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Titans vs. Texans
Houston Texans (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
Sides:
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The road team has won each of the last six games between the Titans and Texans.
- Houston is 3-3 straight up as a favorite. including losses at both Atlanta, Carolina and New York (Jets) when they were small road favorites.
- 17% ATS as a favorite.
- The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as favorites (1-6 ATS as a favorite this season)
- Their last 6 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.
- Overall, Houston is 7-6 versus the spread over their last 13 games.
- The Titans are 1-6 on the road this season.
Game Total:
- The Texans are 3-5 toward the under at home, averaging 47 points scored
- Six of the last seven games between the Titans and Texans at NRG Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
- These teams have averaged 42 points scored
- The Texans have gone under in 9 of their last 13 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- The Titans are a bad team, especially when they play away from Nashville. Just 14.3 points per game scored on the road this season.
- Hence seven of the Titans' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
C.J. Stroud is expected to make his return to the lineup this week after missing the last two weeks with a concussion. But with that comes more money for the Texans. When Stroud plays, Houston is way overvalued by the market. And the number seems like it's in no man's land, sitting at 5.5 points across most sportsbooks. If this was any team but the road Titans, fading the favored Texans would be an easy bet. But alas, Tennessee cannot be trusted on the road, where they have won one time this season in a miracle 14-point comeback victory versus the Dolphins a few weeks ago. We already have seen this Titans team lose to the Texans without Stroud 19-16 in OT back in Week 15.
Much more likely to just bet the under at 43.5 points, with the trends suggesting lackluster efforts from both sides. But in all honesty, this game might be a total write-off for me, as two cannon-armed rookie QBs against two horrible secondaries could put the under in harm's way very quickly - especially in a dome.
Props:
This game might be just better for betting player props.
Derrick Henry under 57.5 rushing yards – Houston is allowing the 4th0-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (69). They held Henry at home to 9 yards on 16 carries two weeks ago. Also, Henry has rushed for 60-plus yards just twice in 7 road games this season.
Nico Collins over 59.5 receiving yards – Collins has at least 54 receiving yards in 6 of his 7 healthy home games played this season. He has also gone over this number in 3 straight games with Stroud under center.
My Picks
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket