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NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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It’s been a bumpy season, but Christmas week was a joyous one for player-prop wagering. Here’s hoping for a happy New Year’s.

I’ll get to this week’s selections in a moment. First, a quick recap of Week 16 …

The wins: Sam Howell under 213.5 passing yards, Joe Flacco over 244.5 passing yards, James Cook over 67.5 rushing yards, Tony Pollard under 55.5 rushing yards, Javonte Williams under 55.5 rushing yards, Trenton Irwin over 10.5 receiving yards, Terry McLaurin under 51.5 receiving yards, Calvin Ridley over 55.5 receiving yards

The losses: Joe Mixon over 46.5 rushing yards, D.J. Moore over 63.5 receiving yards

Last week: 8-2

Season record: 78-71

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NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets: Fitz’s Favorites

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.

Jared Goff UNDER 254.5 passing yards

This will be Goff’s fourth road game of the season against a pass defense ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. In the other three — against the Chiefs, Ravens and Saints — Goff averaged 250 passing yards. The Cowboys, whose pass defense ranks eighth in DVOA, are giving up 199.6 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. It feels like this bar is set a little too high for Goff.

Brock Purdy OVER 258.5 passing yards

Yes, Purdy struggled mightily in his last start, a Christmas Night debacle against the Ravens in which he completed 18-of-32 passes for 255 yards, with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Purdy also sustained a stinger and was removed in favor of Sam Darnold. Now, Purdy goes from a hard matchup against Baltimore to a pillowy-soft one against Washington. The Commanders are allowing 272.5 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt, and their opponent. passer rating of 102.9 is the highest in the league. Purdy dropped a stink bomb last week, but he’s had an excellent season, and he’ll be assisted by a terrific group of pass catchers who’ll feast on the toothless Washington defense. Hammer the over.

Tony Pollard UNDER 57.5 rushing yards

Pollard has cleared this number in only four of his last 12 games, and he’s going to be facing a rugged Lions run defense that is allowing a league-low 58.9 rushing yards per game to running backs. Pollard would probably need a lot of carries to reach this number, but he’s had 13 or fewer rushing attempts in six of his last nine games. The under seems like a sound percentage play.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 86.5 rushing yards

This one seems too easy. McCaffrey is averaging 93 rushing yards per game and has topped 90 rushing yards in five straight games, averaging 114 rushing yards over that stretch. This week, he faces a discombobulated Washington defense that just gave up 95 rushing yards to Jets RB Breece Hall, who hadn’t run for more than 50 yards in a game since Week 5. The Commanders are allowing 98.1 rushing yards per game to RBs, fifth-most in the league. Perhaps the only thing that could short-circuit an over here would be a San Francisco blowout that sends McCaffrey to the bench early in the second half. I’ll take my chances with that.

D’Andre Swift OVER 67.5 rushing yards

With their passing game no longer functioning at a high level, the Eagles seem to be refocusing on their running game. Swift has had 18 and 20 rushing attempts the last two weeks — two of his four highest carry totals this season. He had 92 rushing yards against the Giants last week, 74 against the Seahawks two weeks ago. If Swift gets 15 or more carries this week, he should have little trouble hitting the over vs. a spongy Arizona run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and is yielding a league-high 123.4 rushing yards per game to running backs.

Jaren Hall OVER 26.5 rushing yards

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell named Hall his starting quarterback on Thursday, and the sportsbooks wasted no time posting player props for the rookie quarterback. Hall has played only 22 snaps for Minnesota this far, and he’s had rushing attempts on four of them. Hall is no Lamar Jackson, but he’s a credible runner. When rookie QBs can’t quickly find an open receiver or are confused by the defensive looks they’re seeing, they often tuck the ball away and run, and it’s not hard to imagine Hall doing that often in his second NFL start. Hall will be facing a Green Bay defense that has given up 382 rushing yards to quarterbacks, fourth-most in the league.

Brandon Aiyuk OVER 67.5 receiving yards

I’m already betting the over on Brock Purdy passing yardage, and I’m doubling down with another bet against the Washington pass defense. The Commanders are giving up 191.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, more than any other team except the Buccaneers. Aiyuk is averaging 85.9 receiving yards per game this season and has gone over 100 yards in four of his last eight games.

Logan Thomas OVER 28.5 receiving yards

Thomas will be facing a San Francisco defense that’s had major problems covering tight ends in recent weeks. Over their last three games, the Niners have given up 24 catches and 311 receiving yards to opposing TEs. And it’s not as if the 49ers are being beaten up only by elite tight ends. They gave up 66 yards to the Seattle trio of Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly in Week 14. Last week, the Niners gave up 73 yards to the Baltimore duo of Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. Thomas had five catches for 36 yards against the Jets last week, and he’s cleared this number in 9-of-14 games this season.

Chris Godwin OVER 55.5 receiving yards

Godwin’s usage has spiked in recent weeks. Over Tampa Bay’s first 12 games, he averaged 7.1 targets, 4.4 catches and 50.5 receiving yards per game, and there were only two games in which Godwin drew 10 or more targets. But Godwin has seen double-digit targets in three consecutive games, and he’s averaging 11.0 targets, 7.0 catches and 95.3 receiving yards over that stretch. Godwin will be running most of his routes against New Orleans slot cornerback Alontae Taylor, who’s graded 116th out of the 123 cornerbacks to whom PFF has given grades. Taylor is allowing 1.5 yards per route into his coverage, according to PFF. That’s a high number, and this is a serious mismatch in Godwin’s favor.

Cooper Kupp OVER 68.5 receiving yards

It’s been an atypically uneven season for Kupp, but his production has been at high tide lately. Over his last three games, Kupp is averaging 10.0 targets, 6.7 catches and 92.7 receiving yards. This week, Kupp faces a Giants defense that has given up the sixth-most receptions and 11th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. He’ll be running the majority of his routes against Giants CB Cor’Dale Flott, who’s giving up 1.53 yards per route run into his coverage.

George Pickens UNDER 49.5 receiving yards

Sure, Pickens exploded for 195 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals last week, but he did it on only six targets and four receptions. Target volume has often been an issue for Pickens whenever he shares a field with fellow Steelers WR Diontae Johnson. Before the big game against Cincinnati, Pickens had averaged 5.4 targets and 39.3 receiving yards over his previous eight games. I’m betting on a return to earth for the mercurial Pickens.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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