Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 17 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Week 16 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-7 (-0.54 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 113-96-3 (+7.74 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 40-35
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s NFL Week 17 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 16 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Dec. 28, at 5 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| TEN | DAL | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| ATL | ARI | -3.5 | -2.25 | 1.25 |
| NE | MIA | -3 | -2.75 | 0.25 |
| HOU | JAX | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| KC | DEN | -12.5 | -12.75 | -0.25 |
| DET | CHI | -6 | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| WAS | CLE | -2 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| NYG | IND | -6 | -4.5 | 1.5 |
| TB | CAR | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| PHI | NO | -6.5 | -4.75 | 1.75 |
| LV | SF | 10 | 11.25 | 1.25 |
| SEA | NYJ | 1.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| GB | MIN | -3 | -2.75 | 0.25 |
| LAC | LAR | -6.5 | -8 | -1.5 |
| BAL | PIT | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
| CIN | BUF | 1.5 | 0.25 | -1.25 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Cardinals +3.5 at Falcons
- Browns +2 at Commanders
- 49ers -10 at Raiders
Freedman’s NFL Week 17 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Check out our Cardinals at Falcons matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: FOX
Cardinals at Falcons: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 28.
- Spread: Cardinals +3.5
- Betting Percentages: Falcons – 43% bets, 55% money
Cardinals at Falcons: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Cardinals ATS: 7-8 (-11.0% ROI)
- Falcons ATS: 8-7 (1.8% ROI)
Arizona Cardinals: Notable Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (31.6% ROI) on road
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 24-13-2 ATS (24.4% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-5-2 ATS (43.1% ROI) as road underdog
Atlanta Falcons: Notable Trends
- HC Arthur Smith: 4-10 ATS (36.3% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Arthur Smith: 4-5 ATS (6.3% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Arthur Smith: 1-4 ATS (52.2% ROI) as home favorite
Cardinals at Falcons: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cardinals Offense vs. Falcons Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.075 | 28 | 0.078 | 30 | 2 |
| Total SR | 40.5% | 27 | 49.3% | 32 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | -16.4% | 29 | 11.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.072 | 30 | 0.144 | 30 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 41.1% | 29 | 50.9% | 31 | 2 |
| Pass DVOA | -10.5% | 29 | 21.6% | 30 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.8% | 15 | 4.1% | 32 | 17 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 20 | -0.002 | 25 | 5 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 24 | 47.2% | 32 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.6% | 27 | 1.0% | 23 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.19 | 26 | 5.00 | 31 | 5 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.8 | 26 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 20.5 | 21 | 23.3 | 23 | 2 |
Falcons Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.005 | 16 | 0.019 | 21 | 5 |
| Total SR | 46.0% | 8 | 48.1% | 31 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 4.9% | 14 | 5.6% | 25 | 11 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.01 | 21 | 0.054 | 16 | -5 |
| Dropback SR | 45.8% | 16 | 51.1% | 32 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | 7.2% | 17 | 7.6% | 19 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.1% | 26 | 6.0% | 26 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | 0.019 | 5 | -0.045 | 21 | 16 |
| Rush SR | 46.2% | 3 | 42.9% | 23 | 20 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.6% | 4 | 2.3% | 27 | 23 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.78 | 4 | 4.48 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.4 | 15 | 5.6 | 20 | 5 |
| Points per Game | 21 | 17 | 26.1 | 30 | 13 |
Cardinals at Falcons: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 272 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Colt McCoy
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.9 | 25 |
Career: Colt McCoy
- AY/A: 5.9
- QB Elo per Game: -47.6
2022: Desmond Ridder
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.8 | 47 |
Career: Desmond Ridder
- AY/A: 5.3
- QB Elo per Game: -92.9
Key Takeaway: Desmond Ridder … Is a Favorite?
The Falcons opened the year 6-0 ATS and 3-3 on the moneyline. They were an overachieving cover machine for the first six weeks of the season.
But since then they are 2-7 ATS and on the moneyline. The market has caught up to the Falcons, and they have regressed as the season has progressed, especially on offense — and especially since switching to third-round rookie QB Desmond Ridder after the Week 14 bye.
- Weeks 1-6: 24.3 points per game | 2.49 points per drive | 6.7 yards per pass attempt
- Weeks 7-16: 18.8 points per game | 1.86 points per drive | 6.1 yards per pass attempt
- Weeks 15-16: 13.5 points per game | 1.35 points per drive | 4.7 yards per pass attempt
Even though the Cardinals are a bottom-five team by my power ratings, they have a clear edge with QB Colt McCoy (concussion), who has cleared the league’s protocol and will start after missing last week. In the post-Browns era, McCoy has a 6.4 AY/A, and in his two years with the Cardinals he has a 6.1 AY/A. He’s a competent veteran backup, which is more than we can say for Ridder, who is a downgrade on former starter Marcus Mariota.
The Falcons should be favored — but they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal. They’re 1-2 ATS as favorites this year, and their one ATS win was against the Bears in Week 11, when QB Justin Fields injured his shoulder.
With a raw and unproven rookie quarterback, the Falcons are laying too many points.
Best Line: Cardinals +3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.25
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Check out our Browns at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: FOX
Browns at Commanders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 28.
- Spread: Browns +2
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 52% bets, 88% money
Browns at Commanders: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Browns ATS: 7-7-1 (-4.1% ROI)
- Commanders ATS: 7-7-1 (-4.4% ROI)
Washington Commanders: Notable Trends
- QB Carson Wentz: 26-36 ATS (13.1% ROI for faders) since 2017 knee injury
- QB Carson Wentz: 14-21 ATS (15.8% ROI for faders) as favorite since 2017 knee injury
Browns at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.009 | 15 | -0.038 | 8 | -7 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 18 | 40.9% | 2 | -16 |
| Total DVOA | 7.5% | 11 | -3.5% | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.019 | 17 | 0.009 | 10 | -7 |
| Dropback SR | 45.5% | 17 | 43.0% | 3 | -14 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.4% | 11 | 3.7% | 16 | 5 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 10 | 7.5% | 12 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 7 | -0.110 | 8 | 1 |
| Rush SR | 43.2% | 7 | 37.7% | 4 | -3 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.2% | 8 | -12.8% | 11 | 3 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.34 | 19 | 4.10 | 7 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.3 | 18 | 5.3 | 12 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 21.5 | 14 | 20.9 | 12 | -2 |
Commanders Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.055 | 26 | 0.036 | 25 | -1 |
| Total SR | 41.6% | 24 | 45.4% | 23 | -1 |
| Total DVOA | -11.2% | 28 | 5.3% | 24 | -4 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.036 | 25 | 0.009 | 10 | -15 |
| Dropback SR | 43.2% | 23 | 45.6% | 16 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.7% | 26 | 3.5% | 15 | -11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 22 | 7.0% | 15 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.080 | 20 | 0.074 | 32 | 12 |
| Rush SR | 39.5% | 22 | 45.2% | 30 | 8 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.1% | 28 | 7.4% | 30 | 2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.32 | 20 | 4.94 | 29 | 9 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 25 | 5.6 | 20 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 19 | 24 | 22.9 | 21 | -3 |
Browns at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 272 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Deshaun Watson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.3 | 11 |
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.3
- QB Elo per Game: 53.7
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.015 | 30 |
| AY/A | 6.3 | 26 |
| QBR | 32.6 | 31 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.5 | 36 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -6.3
Key Matchup: Browns Pass Defense vs. Commanders QB Carson Wentz
In Weeks 1-11, the Browns defense was terrible. Key players were in and out of the starting lineup due to injuries, and they allowed teams to score at will against them. But since Week 12 they have been a brick wall.
- Weeks 1-11: 26.9 points per game | 0.123 EPA per play (No. 31)
- Weeks 12-17: 14.8 points per game | -0.133 EPA per play (No. 3)
They’ve been especially strong in pass defense over the past five games, ranking No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.205).
Granted, their five most recent games have come against QBs Tom Brady, Kyle Allen, Joe Burrow, Tyler Huntley and Andy Dalton — but Carson Wentz isn’t much (if any) better than that cohort of passers. This year, he has a mediocre 6.3 AY/A. Since 2020, he has the same milquetoast 6.3 AY/A. That’s who he is at this point in his career.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson is hardly the consummation devoutly to be wished. Even excluding last week’s weather-impacted game, he still has just a 6.2 AY/A since returning to action in Week 13. But in his four years with the Texans he had a strong 8.6 AY/A. He’s still a better quarterback than Wentz, whom I expect will struggle against the rejuvenated Browns pass defense.
Best Line: Browns +2 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Browns +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Browns -0.25
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our 49ers at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: FOX
49ers at Raiders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 28.
- Spread: 49ers -10
- Betting Percentages: 49ers – 77% bets, 86% money
49ers at Raiders: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- 49ers ATS: 10-5 (27.0% ROI)
- Raiders ATS: 7-8 (9.7% ROI)
San Francisco 49ers: Notable Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 30-20 ATS (16.4% ROI) on road, including postseason
- QB Brock Purdy: 3-0 ATS (88.3% ROI) to open career
49ers at Raiders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
49ers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.071 | 6 | 0.041 | 26 | 20 |
| Total SR | 45.3% | 13 | 46.5% | 28 | 15 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 7 | 12.4% | 31 | 24 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.162 | 6 | 0.142 | 29 | 23 |
| Dropback SR | 47.5% | 13 | 49.3% | 28 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 33.0% | 4 | 24.5% | 32 | 28 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.1% | 9 | 4.7% | 30 | 21 |
| Rush EPA | -0.040 | 11 | -0.122 | 5 | -6 |
| Rush SR | 42.5% | 12 | 42.1% | 21 | 9 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.3% | 16 | -3.9% | 20 | 4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 5 | 4.36 | 18 | 13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.9 | 5 | 5.6 | 20 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 25 | 8 | 23.3 | 23 | 15 |
Raiders Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 14 | -0.113 | 1 | -13 |
| Total SR | 42.9% | 21 | 40.1% | 1 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | 0.3% | 16 | -16.2% | 1 | -15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.059 | 12 | -0.083 | 2 | -10 |
| Dropback SR | 43.0% | 24 | 43.0% | 3 | -21 |
| Pass DVOA | 5.8% | 20 | -10.2% | 5 | -15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.6% | 6 | 7.3% | 14 | 8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.056 | 15 | -0.174 | 1 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 42.8% | 10 | 34.1% | 2 | -8 |
| Rush DVOA | 5.0% | 7 | -26.0% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.02 | 1 | 3.65 | 2 | 1 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 8 | 4.8 | 1 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 12 | 15.3 | 1 | -11 |
49ers at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 272 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Brock Purdy
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.7 | 49 |
Career: Brock Purdy
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: 48.5
Career: Jarrett Stidham
- AY/A: 3.3
Key Matchup: 49ers Pass Defense vs. Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham
With the benching of franchise QB Derek Carr, the Raiders are poised to start backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
On the plus side, Stidham is a four-year veteran who has spent his entire career under HC Josh McDaniels, first with the 2019-21 Patriots and now with the 2022 Raiders. He knows the offensive system well.
On the negative side, Stidham is a forgotten former fourth-rounder with little experience and no starts on his NFL record. He has just 61 pass attempts in his career — and he has looked awful in converting them into just 342 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions.
He has also had a 9.0% sack rate, and he offers nothing in the running game.
The 49ers defense is No. 1 in EPA per play (-0.113) and No. 2 in dropback EPA (-0.097).
Regardless of whatever you think about Carr, Stidham is an unquestioned downgrade — a significant one.
Giving the matchup, I think he’s drawing dead.
Best Line: 49ers -10 (-110, FanDuel)
First Recommended: 49ers -5 (-110)
Personal Projection: 49ers -11.25
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Cowboys -9.5 at Titans
- Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Panthers
- Patriots -2.5 vs. Dolphins
- Cardinals +3.5 at Falcons
- 49ers -5.5 at Raiders
I expect some of these picks to change based on line movement, so I’ll provide a tweet with my updated contest picks on Sunday before kickoff, and then I’ll post that tweet here.
Previous Best Bets Pieces
- Week 1
- Week 2
- Week 3
- Week 4
- Week 5
- Week 6
- Week 7
- Week 8
- Week 9
- Week 10
- Week 11
- Week 12
- Week 13
- Week 14
- Week 15
- Week 16
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts