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NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets (Falcons vs. Commanders)

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Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 17 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 17’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Falcons and Commanders. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the final section of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.

Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.

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Sunday Night Football Primer

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games.
  • The Falcons are 0-7 as underdogs following wins. They are 0-6 ATS as underdogs following wins.
  • The Falcons are 12-18-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing 9-7 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games.
  • Opponents have scored first in seven of the Falcons' last 10 games.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons' last 27 games.
  • The Falcons have won eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 6-8 ATS on the road, 4-5 ATS as road favorites, and 7-15 on the road straight up.
  • Atlanta is 11-5 on the Moneyline as home favorites (15-10 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 7-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 11-5 as home favorites on the Moneyline.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 15 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in five of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 21 games.
  • They are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • The Commanders have scored first in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight games.

Totals:

  • Twelve of the Falcons' last 15 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons are 5-10 O/U this season.
  • Five of the Falcons' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 3-4 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging under 50 points.
  • They are 2-6 O/U at home, averaging UNDER 44.5 points per game.
  • Five of the Falcons' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Commanders are 5-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Commanders’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Commanders’ last 23 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Commanders' last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 7-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 17-4 toward the OVER.
  • Each of the Commanders' last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Commanders' issue this season has been facing superior competition, as they have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with winning records. They are officially 2-3 in those games this season, but they would be 1-4 had it not been for the Hail Mary play against the Chicago Bears. Arguably, they should be 1-5 had it not been for the DeVonta Smith drop last week in the massive upset win over the Eagles, who lost quarterback Jalen Hurts early on.

But how good are the 8-7 Falcons? Had they not had a cakewalk of easy matchups over the past month, would they also have a losing record? Per FTN’s DVOA metric, they rank 20th in total DVOA. The Commanders are 8th.

Atlanta is also so much better at home than on the road. Case in point: the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in their last four road games. And they have tended to be extremely overrated after wins. I think after the Falcons blew out the Giants on the back of two pick-sixes they are getting too much credit as only 3.5-point road underdogs.

Keep in mind that the market has been very spot-on with the rookie quarterbacks in favorable spots this season. When these rookie QBs are favored in 2024, they usually win and cover.

Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Michael Penix Jr. have combined for a 17-4 record ATS as favorites this season.

The spread was 4.5 points earlier in the week, but the love for rookie Penix Jr. has bettors backing the Dirty Birds on the road.

Thanks, but no thanks. Last week at home against a terrible Giants defense was the warm-up for Penix. Now, he will be really tested in his first road start.

I’m not saying he can't find success, but I like my odds of betting on a rookie QB making his first road start against the soon-to-be offensive rookie of the year.

According to Next Gen Stats, Penix completed all six of his pass attempts (+20.0% CPOE) for 49 yards against split-safety coverages in Week 16 while going 12 for 20 for 153 yards and an interception against single-high (-2.5% CPOE).

The Commanders have allowed a 62.9% completion rate when using split safeties this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

Also, per Next Gen Stats, the Commanders’ defensive front has been more effective rushing the passer in 2024 as they have generated a 34.9% pressure rate compared to 31.0% in 2023, resulting in the 2nd-largest increase in pressure rate by any team from last season to this season (+3.9%).

They lost defensive tackle, Jonathan Allen, to IR for a pectoral injury in Week 7, and rookie Jer'Zhan Newton has stepped in as the starting defensive tackle next to Daron Payne.  Allen is trending towards playing on Sunday night.

Let's not pretend that Penix makes the Falcons’ defense better because they will have problems stopping the Commanders’ offense. They cannot generate pressure.

According to Next Gen Stats, Jayden Daniels has completed 75.6% of his passes when not under pressure this season, the 5th-highest in the NFL and the highest by any rookie in a season since at least 2018.

Daniels has been pressured on just 31.0% of his dropbacks in 2024, the 11th-lowest among 34 qualified quarterbacks. The Falcons have generated pressure on only 29.2% of pass rushes this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. When getting to the quarterback, the Falcons have turned just 15.8% of their pressures into sacks, resulting in the 2nd-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the NFL.

Give me the Commanders -3.5 at home on Sunday Night Football.

As for the total, I would like the under at 46.5 if I had to pick. I'm not confident we get a monster performance from the Falcons offense in Penix's first road start.

I much prefer the bet on the sides, given that the Commanders’ last four home games have gone OVER the total points line. And those have been against teams like Dallas, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh.

Props:

According to @PropTailz, Zach Ertz has a contract incentive for an extra $250K if he gets five more receptions. He also needs 62 yards for another $250k and 2 TDs for another $250k.

Ertz only caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets, with a long of 12 yards last week. But he was coming off an injury. His role wasn't different. With Commanders’ No. 2 WR Dyami Brown out, Ertz should reclaim his role as the No. 2 target in the passing game. He leads the Commanders in red-zone targets this season.

Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder figure to take on bigger roles with Brown sidelined. However, it's the perimeter/outside that Washington will need WR snaps filled in. Considering both guys have spent considerable time in the slot, we could see a dark horse player such as Luke McCaffrey or K.J. Osborn play snaps out wide. In a plus-matchup versus Atlanta, you can get better than 10-1 odds for the anytime TD scores from some of these underrated Commanders WRs.

Brian Robinson carried the ball 10 times for 24 yards last week, averaging 2.4 yards per carry, with a long of 6 yards. B-Rob was also involved in the passing game, catching 2 of his three targets for 17 yards, with a long of 9 yards. He played 63% of the snaps but went 0-for-3 rushing in the red zone.

But it was overall a terrible game for Robinson, given that he fumbled twice. But eight of the last 11 RBs to face Atlanta have exceeded their rushing yards projection. I would like him to rebound in Week 17 by going over his rushing prop and finding the end zone.

My Picks:

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