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NFL Week 18 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2025)

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Introducing the Week 18 edition of the NFL Betting Primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros.com. I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate.

Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive same-game parlays (SGP).

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the remaining Week 18 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks.

Below you will find my top picks for Week 18’s regular season finale. Note that the Sunday Night Football matchup will have it’s own dedicated article. Because let’s be honest…it deserves one.

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NFL Week 18 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • GB 1st half -6.5
  • Seahawks -7
  • Cardinals -4.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Giants +2.5
  • Raiders +6
  • Texans +1.5
  • Chiefs +11

Top Totals:

  • JAC/IND over 45
  • WAS/DAL under 44
  • NE/BUF over 36.5
  • NYJ/MIA under 38.5

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last nine of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers are 9-9-1 ATS as home favorites (50%).
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 20 games.
  • Green Bay is 3-8 as a road favorite ATS (25%) and 12-10 on the money line.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 18-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 15-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-11 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The favorites have won each of the Packers’ last 12 games.
  • The Packers have won nine of their last 13 games.
  • In each of the Packers’ last six games as favorites, the first score has been a Packers Touchdown.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against the Bears.
  • The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last eight road games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last nine road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last 10 games.
  • The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS as road underdogs and 6-14-1 ATS overall on the road.
  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Bears are 12-11-1 ATS and 10-14 straight up in their last 24 games.
  • Opponents have scored first in 15 of the Bears’ last 16 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • In 15 of the Bears' last 16 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in nine of their last 16 games.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 13 home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 15 of the Bears’ last 21 games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.

Totals:

  • Green Bay is 3-5 O/U this season at home, averaging under 43.5 points per game.
  • The Packers are 21-14 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Fourteen of the Packers’ last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, 17 in Week 12, 23 in Week 13, 7 in Week 14, 14 in Week 15 and 21 in Week 16. Week 17 they scored just three points in the first half.
  • That’s over 16 first-half points per game in Weeks 5-16, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • Eleven of the Packers’ last 18 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Packers have scored first in 13 of their last 14 road games.
  • Eleven of the Packers’ last 15 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Bears’ last 16 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bears’ last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bears' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line
  • The Bears are 14-7-1 under the point total in their last 21 games.
  • The Bears are 5-3 O/U at home, and those games are averaging under 40 points per game (aside from Week 16's eruption spot versus the Lions.

Overall:

The Bears are losers of 10 straight games. And the outlook for Week 18 doesn't look great, with them catching ten points on the road against the Packers. This has been a one-sided matchup throughout the past several seasons, as the Packers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against the Bears. Green Bay has won 13 straight as favorites versus Chicago.

But is there a question of motivation with the Packers' 1st team? The Green Bay coaches - and the massive spread - suggest it's all gas and no brakes with the starters. But besides building "momentum," the Packers do not have much to play for besides playoff wildcard seeding.

Therefore, the recipe for success in handicapping this game is simple.

Take the Packers on the first-half spread. Three weeks in a row the Bears have failed to cover the spread in the first half. Brings the spread down to -6.5 GB. Packers are sixth in first-half points per game. The Bears are 31st.

Because if I were playing the whole game, I would very much take the Bears +10. Again, this is a rematch of a Week 11 game in Chicago that the Bears should have won versus the Packers.

Green Bay will likely win in the end, but 10 points is just too many points. And Green Bay's identity is to run the ball, not post bonkers yardage totals throwing the ball.

Props:

The Week 17 Bears rushing attack was led by D'Andre Swift, who had 53 yards on 12 carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Swift played 66% of the snaps.

Swift has rushed for more than 60 rushing yards twice in his last nine games played. And just once in games with Roschon Johnson active since Week 11. Swift is more than 100 rushing yards away from 1,000 rushing yards this season.

Swift added 28 yards on four receptions on five targets. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run. The Bears RB caught both of his targets for 13 yards the last time he faced the Packers.

D.J Moore has gone over 5.5 catches in every single game since Thomas Brown took over as the Bears play-caller.

Rome Odunze, with 47% of the air yards share (78 air yards), caught one pass for 15 yards but was more involved in the downfield passing game, averaging a significant 19.5 aDOT. He also caught a TD, but it was called back on a penalty. In the final week of the season, I could see Odunze used the most as the youngest piece in the offense. Note that he has been on the injury report this week with an illness. Sick of the BS in Chicago, no doubt.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for fewer than 70.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He's finished under his rushing projection in four of his last five games.

His rushing yards prop opened at 75.5 rushing yards. The line has been bet down to 64.5 rushing yards.

Still, with little motivation to slam him into the Bears' defense in the second half, I like the under on his rushing yards in Week 18. He hit 76 rushing yards the last time these teams played. Jacobs also told reporters on Thursday that he will not see his standard complement of touches in the season finale.

Seven of the last eight TEs the Packers have faced have gone for 36-plus receiving yards.

Cole Kmet provided a reliable option at tight end the last time these teams played, hauling in all 3 of his targets for 42 yards, including a 25-yard long reception. Kmet had not been involved much, but the matchup is so divine for him to go over his receiving yards prop this week. After he was not targeted versus Seattle, he should be more involved in the offensive game plan.

What are the odds the Bears won't score a touchdown for a second straight week? Not likely. I liked D.J. Moore's TD props last week, but to no avail.

He only has two TDs since Week 6, despite crazy volume. He also has five red-zone targets in the last two weeks. Interestingly enough, he trails only the RBs in total red-zone touches for both teams in this matchup.

If not Moore, Kmet, at 7-1 anytime TD odds, is bonkers for a starting TE to score a TD against a defense that is bad against tight ends.

My Picks:

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Sides:

  • The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Panthers’ last eight games.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in six of the last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers have not covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 20 of their last 26 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 20 of their last 24 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have lost each of their last 11 road games against NFC opponents.
  • Atlanta is 11-5 on the Moneyline as home favorites (15-10 at home overall).
  • The Falcons, as a home favorite, are 7-9 ATS.
  • The Falcons are 12-19-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing 9-7 straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games after coming off overtime.
  • The underdogs have won 12 of the Falcons’ last 28 games.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road games.
  • The Falcons are 0-8 as underdogs following wins. They are 0-7 ATS as underdogs following wins.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games.
  • The Falcons have scored last in each of their last four home games against the Panthers.
  • Opponents have scored first in eight of the Falcons’ last 11 games.
  • The Falcons have won eight of their last 15 games.
  • The Falcons have won seven of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Falcons are 6-9 ATS on the road, 4-5 ATS as road favorites, and 7-16 on the road straight up.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 16 games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Falcons are 5-4 ATS in their last nine home games as underdogs and 11-5 as home favorites on the Moneyline.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Panthers' last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Panthers' last 16 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Panthers’ last seven games at Bank of America Stadium has gone OVER the total points line (7-1 overall record to the over and 48.5 points per game).
  • The Falcons are 6-10 O/U this season.
  • Six of the Falcons’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-6 O/U at home, averaging UNDER 44 points per game.
  • Five of the Falcons’ last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Falcons’ last four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Falcons’ last 16 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Atlanta is 4-4 O/U on the road this season, with games averaging under 50 points.

Overall:

The Falcons need a win and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to make the playoffs. They are highly motivated to win this game, but can the Panthers do enough to play a spoiler role?

Before last week's destruction, this team had shown no signs of quitting. Overall, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight weeks.

The Panthers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs. Ultimately, I think the Falcons will find a way to win being they usually play better at home. But 7.5 points is a lot in a divisional game against a team that has shown a lot of grit the last two months.

Carolina might not have "anything" to play for, but head coach Dave Canales and quarterback Bryce Young will want to build momentum heading into the offseason.

This will be Michael Penix Jr.'s third start and his second one at home. Aside from a few bad throws, I was mostly impressed by his performance on the road last week versus the Commanders.

And the market has been all over rookie QBs as favorites. Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Michael Penix Jr. have combined for an 18-4 record ATS as favorites this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Penix Jr. has completed 11 of his 14 passes for 154 yards against cover three since becoming the starter in Week 16 this season.

Penix has averaged 11.0 yards per attempt and has generated a completion percentage over expected of +8.8% against cover 3, both of which are well above league average (7.8 yards per attempt, -0.1% CPOE). The Panthers utilize cover three at the 2nd-highest rate (45.2% of dropbacks faced) and have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt when in cover 3, just below the league average of 7.7.

Carolina's defense (32nd in DVOA) is New York Giants’ level of bad (28th in DVOA), so Atlanta's offense is going to score points.

They did so when these teams first played, in a game they won 38-20.

Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined to carry the ball 33 times for 200 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6, as both players gained at least 90 yards, scored a touchdown and forced at least five missed tackles.

The duo was most effective outside the tackles, gaining 142 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries. Overall, the Panthers gave up 145 rushing yards outside the tackles, the 2nd-most they have in any game this season (Next Gen Stats).

That leads me to my favorite play in this game. The over at 48 points. The first matchup closed at 45.5 points and totaled 58 points. Neither of these defenses can generate a pass rush.

11 of the Panthers' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line, including four of their last five games. Carolina is 7-2 toward the over since Young returned as the team's starter. The Falcons have gone over their implied team total in both of Penix's starts this season. Playing the over on the Falcons’ team total of over 27.5 points might be a sharp play as well.

Props:

Bijan Robinson has five straight games of over 88.5 rushing yards (six of the last seven). But he has surpassed 95.5 rushing yards four times since Week 7 (last 10 games).

The Panthers receiving game was paced by Adam Thielen in Week 17, who caught five passes on six targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 40 yards. Thielen accounted for 27% of the Target share and was instrumental in the team's scoring effort. Thielen has at least 4.5 catches in five straight games.

My Picks:

  • Over 48

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Sides:

  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 14 games.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 23 of the Cowboys’ last 34 games.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games as home underdogs.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They are 2-6 at home this season.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in seven of their last nine home games.
  • In each of the Cowboys’ last six home games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Cowboys have scored first in four of their last five games.
  • Dallas is 5-3 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have scored first in each of their last eight home games against the Commanders.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Commanders have scored first in 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Commanders have won the first quarter in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last 16 home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 22 games.
  • They are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have won the first half in 10 of their last 14 games.

Totals:

  • Seventeen of the Cowboys’ last 22 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 14-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 52 points per game.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 50 points this season (6-2 O/U).
  • Twelve of the Cowboys’ last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nineteen of the Cowboys’ last 30 games have gone OVER the projected total (68%), including the last 18 of 28 games.
  • Eight of the last nine games between the Commanders and Cowboys at AT&T Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Commanders’ last 11 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Commanders' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eighteen of the Commanders' last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Commanders are 6-3 O/U at home, averaging over 51 points per game.
  • Each of the Commanders' last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 7-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 18-4 toward the OVER.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last seven games against AFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Commanders have won each of their last four games. Meanwhile, Dallas has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games. Big D has been terrible all season at home, and the Commanders have taken care of business against inferior opponents.

This game spread is interesting because it has moved a lot since opening at WAS -3.5. The Commanders clinched a wild-card berth with a victory versus Atlanta and are playing for the 6 seed (avoid the Eagles in round 1) over the 7 seed. As such, Dan Quinn has said they will play their starters. The line has moved heavily in favor of the Commanders to -6.5, and I am staying far away from the sides.

The Commanders-Cowboys is a rematch of Week 12, where Dallas won 34-26 on the road. That game went nuts in the fourth quarter, as we saw 31 points scored in the final 3:30 minutes.

According to Next Gen Stats, the 31 total points in the final 3:30 of the game are the second most in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs).

Needless to say, there's strong value on the under in this game, with the total sitting at 44 points. Given Dallas' implied team total is less than 20 points, I think this game shades towards the under.

A relatively meaningless Week 18 game screams regression to the mean from a totals perspective in an NFC East rivalry that has been all overs in the recent trends.

Props:

Zach Ertz, the Commanders' tight end, caught six passes on seven targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns (three red-zone targets), finishing with 20% of the air yards share in Week 17. He was back to his full-time role leading Washington in routes run.

If you followed the contract incentives last week in the SNF BettingPros Primer, you would have tailed the Ertz TD bet. He hit all three of his $250K incentives in Week 17, going over five receptions, 62 yards, and two TDs. For him to hit another level of incentives, he would need nine catches for 90 yards and two more TDs, which seems a tad bit aggressive for Week 18. Washington is playing their starters, though, so he could see decent volume.

The Dallas Cowboys were led by quarterback Cooper Rush in their Week 17 matchup. Rush completed 15 of 28 passes for 147 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 50.7. Trey Lance added one completion for 1 yard on a single pass attempt.

A recent ESPN report suggested we could see Lance under center in the season finale. Mike McCarthy has declined to name a starter for Week 18.

Note that Rush has an additional $250K incentive tied to playing 55% of the snaps, and he's currently at 52.3%. His contract states it can’t be rounded up.

Regardless, I like the Under on Rush's passing yards prop. He has gone under in three of his last five games. Seven of the last 10 QBs to face Washington have gone under their passing yards projection.

Rico Dowdle has finished with more than 11.5 receiving yards one time, with Cooper Rush as the starter in Dallas.

My Picks:

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 17 of their last 22 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 14 of their last 21 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 22 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season.
  • They are just 3-15 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-3 as a home underdog and 6-6 on the Moneyline.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In eight of the Jaguars’ last 10 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Jaguars have scored first in each of their last three games.
  • The home team has won 13 of the last 14 games between the Jaguars and Colts.
  • The Jaguars have been the first to 10 points in each of their last six games against the Colts.
  • The favorites have won 23 of the Colts’ last 28 games.
  • The Colts are 3-3 ATS as favorites this season
  • The Colts have lost six of their last 10 road games.
  • The Colts are 9-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in nine of their last 16 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
  • The Colts are 6-4 ATS as an underdog (3-7 overall).
  • The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last five games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Jaguars' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 3-4 toward the over at home (Under 45.5 points per game).
  • Nine of the Jaguars’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in nine of their last 24 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Each of the Colts’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the last 12 Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Anthony Richardson-led offenses have scored more than 10 points in the first half (12 starts) only seven times, with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at quarterback this season, the Colts are 4-5-1 toward the over this season (3-5-1 toward the over in the last eight games).
  • The Colts have scored last in eight of their last 11 games.
  • With Joe Flacco: 4-2 O/U (last four games 3-1).
  • The Colts are 5-5-1 toward the under in their last 11 games.
  • Eleven of the Colts’ last 17 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

An AFC South shootout on deck? You bet. I love the over in this game. The Jaguars have scored 30-plus points the last three times they have faced the Colts defense. Each of the Colts’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line, and nine of the last 12 Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

The Jaguars offense has allowed a 27.4% pressure rate this season, the 5th-lowest in the NFL.

While Mac Jones has befitted from good pass protection he has averaged only 6.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, the 3rd-fewest in the league. The Colts defense has generated a 31.8% pressure rate this season, the 7th-lowest in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

We just saw this Colts’ defense get destroyed by Drew Lock. I think Mac Jones can do more than enough to get this game over the total regardless of whichever Colts QB is under center. Because the last three times these teams have faced off, the game total has flown over 50-plus points. And the Colts had a different QB in each game (all wins and covers by the Jaguars).

Games in Indy have averaged 45.4 points per game with a 4-3 O/U record.

I also like Jacksonville with the points. The Jaguars have been the first to 10 points in each of their last six games against the Colts. Doug Pederson knows exactly how to attack this Gus Bradley defense.

Indianapolis is 7-6 in close games this season, which means 13 of their 16 games have been decided by one score. All of their seven wins have come by one score or less.

The Colts defense gives up so many explosive plays, and that is rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr.'s bread-and-butter.

Props:

Mac Jones has passed for 220-plus yards in four of his last five games. I like OVER on his passing yards prop this week at 218.5 passing yards. This Colts defense is terrible. 7 of the last 9 QBs they have faced have gone OVER their passing yards projection.

Thomas led the receiving game, catching seven passes for 91 yards and one touchdown, including a 31-yard-long reception. BTJ has seven targets in the first half. No other player had more than one target.

Thomas Jr. recorded his eighth game with 60-plus receiving yards and at least one receiving touchdown (Next Gen Stats), tying the record held by Randy Moss.

He accounted for 48% of the Target share with 10 targets.

In the last six games...BTJ has averaged over 22 PPR points, a 33% Target share, a 45% air yards share, and 95-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.

My Picks:

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The New York Giants are 13-10 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Giants have lost 13 of their last 17 road games.
  • The Giants are 8-15 ATS as road underdogs.
  • Opponents have scored first in six of the Giants’ last seven road games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Giants' last 12 games.
  • New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Giants are 11-13 ATS over their last 24 games.
  • In 10 of the Giants’ last 11 games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • In six of the Giants’ last eight games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Giants have lost eight of their last nine home games.
  • The Giants were the sixth-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • They are 3-6 ATS at home this season.
  • The Giants are 14-9-1 at home ATS and 11-7-1 ATS as home underdogs
  • The Giants have lost eight of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles are 5-13-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 14-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (66%).
  • The Giants have a 17-point implied team total
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles are 15-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 25 games.
  • The Eagles have won each 11 of their last 12 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 23 games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 17 games as favorites.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 11 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Eagles' last 21 games.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.

Totals:

  • Eleven of the Giants' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 11-14 toward the over in their last 25 games.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in 10 of their last 22 games.
  • Eight of the Giants’ last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of the last 16).
  • Twelve of the Giants’ last 17 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 1-6 toward the over at home this season (43 points per game).
  • Each of the Eagles' last four home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Eagles’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 15-19 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-7 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • Nine of the Eagles' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Eagles’ last 13 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Giants have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games and they are currently on an 11-game losing streak at Philadelphia. But with the Eagles resting their starters, is this the spot for them to break the losing streak? I tend to lean in that direction.

We've gotten more clarity about head coach Nick Sirianni resting his main guys, most notably revealing that Saquon Barkley would not be chasing the all-time rushing record in Week 18. Probably a smart move for a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

I don't think the Eagles are doing much, if anything, to prepare for the Giants. On Thursday's injury report, the Eagles had 18 guys on the tabbed limited or not practicing because of "rest."

Brian Daboll is coaching for his job, so I think the Giants will try to win this game after they fell out of the No.1 overall pick last week in the upset over the Colts. Also worth noting is that Drew Lock has a bunch of passer rating stat incentives in his contract, so he will likely want to pad his stats as much as humanely possible.

The Eagles starters have blown home covers that they had no business blowing, so it hardly seems like a stretch that their backups might not win a meaningless game by three points. I'm not entirely sure why Philly is favored at all besides them playing at home. But what is the home-field advantage for a game filled with backup players?

I'll take Big Blue with the 2.5 points on the road and the under on the 37. Each of the Eagles' last four home games has gone UNDER the total points line (six of their last eight overall).

Props:

Malik Nabers has gone over 70.5 receiving yards thrice in his last eight games, with his three highest games at 79, 82, and 171 receiving yards, respectively. More importantly, Nabers has 6.5 receptions or more in three straight and four of his last five games played.

He is also two receptions (currently at 104) away from breaking Puka Nacua's rookie WR record for receptions. The rookie receptions record is currently held by Brock Bowers (108), who has four more than Nabers with one week left in the season. Nabers plays before Bowers on Sunday, so there will be an exact receptions number Bowers will look to hit as the rookies duke it out for the all-time rookie receptions record with a week to go.

Be aware that Nabers is battling a toe injury, so monitor his status in the Giants' regular-season finale.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Sides:

  • Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
  • The Bills have won 19 of their last 23 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games as favorites.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
  • The Bills have won 11 of their last 12 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last seven home games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 22-7 as a favorite since the start of last season and 15-14 ATS.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 31 games.
  • The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 16-2 straight up and 10-8 ATS at home.
  • As a road underdog, Buffalo is 3-4 straight up and on the Moneyline (33%).
  • The Patriots have scored first in each of their last three games against the Bills.
  • The Patriots have lost 10 of their last 11 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 18 games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 18 games.
  • The Patriots have lost 15 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • As road underdogs, the Patriots are 47% ATS (9-11) and sub-50% ATS on the road in their last 24 road contests.

Totals:

  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in nine of their last 10 games.
  • 10 of the Bills' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 7-1 toward the over this season (51.6 points per game).
  • Fourteen of the Bills' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line - 20 of their last 26 road games.
  • Eleven of the Bills' last 13 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills' last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills' last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the last 21 Patriots games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • Nine of the Patriots’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in 12 out of 16 games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • The Patriots are 10-6 toward the OVER this season.
  • They are 6-1 toward the OVER at home (46.1 points per game).
  • Each of the Patriots’ last five home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I will be attending Patriots-Bills at Gillette Stadium, and I am indecisive on how I want to cheer for this contest. I want my Pats to win, but locking in the No.1 overall draft pick is so much better for the future outlook of the franchise.

I've mostly been riding the overs in Patriots games, and that has been a very profitable strategy this season. They are 6-1 toward the OVER at home (46.1 points per game) while riding a 5-game over streak.

But I'm gun-shy on points for two reasons. Drake Maye seems like he is one hit away from being taken out of the game completely. He looked like he had another concussion last week, and he is on the injury report with a right hand injury.

OC Alex Van Pelt said Maye will start, but it remains to be seen for how long in a Week 18 contest. Fellow rookie QB Joe Milton has gotten work with the 1s this week, so Bazooka Joe could be making his season debut.

We also know that Josh Allen will start, but only for a drive so he can keep his start streak alive. Buffalo is locked into the No. 2 seed and will rest their starters.

Mitchell Trubisky will be under center for the majority of the game for Buffalo.  And yet, Buffalo is still a 2-point road favorite. Just tells you how bad the Patriots have been this season.

And they will be without their only good player on defense, cornerback Christian Gonzalez after he suffered a concussion last week.

I tend to avoid the sides in games like this, given I don't see an edge on either side than just taking the home team with the points. After all, the Patriots are "trying" to win by at least playing their best players. They aren't "tanking."

We also saw the Patriots against the Bills starters on the road two weeks ago, cover a massive spread after opening up 14-0. I think they can cover +3.5, given that Buffalo has hardly been a lock covering the spread against teams with losing records on the road with Allen under center.

I just hope they don't win and knock themselves out of the No. 1 overall pick.

Back to the total...I think I am still going to bet the over. 36.5 points is not a huge bar to pass, considering how games have played out in New England this season. The Patriots defense is horrible and even Trubisky might be able to post a strong stat line. One of Trubisky’s last starts in 2023 was against the Patriots (when their defense was good), and the Steelers lost 18-21. But the game total over hit. Rinse and repeat.

Props

Maye has thrown for 200-plus yards in eight out of 12 games played this season and in five of his last seven games.

In the Week 17 rushing game, Antonio Gibson led the way with 63 yards on 12 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Maye contributed with 32 yards on six attempts, also averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Rhamondre Stevenson had limited success, rushing for just 1 yard on two attempts, while Jacoby Brissett added a small negative rush for -2 yards.

Maye has rushed for 26+ yards in eight out of 12 games played this season,

We got a report pre-game - along with rumblings all week - that Gibson would start. That was not the case, as Stevenson started. He got the first carry for five yards. And then Gibson worked in on the next drive. But the usage flip-flopped throughout the game. Six of Gibson's 12 carries came when the game was 40-7 on the final drive of the fourth quarter.

This game hardly suggests that Gibson is the RB1 in Week 18, but rather Stevenson was completely game-scripted out. The final snaps were 55% for Gibson and 45% for Stevenson.

The first-half carries were two versus three in favor of Gibson. The Patriots barely had the ball in the first half and were limited to just 15 offensive plays. WOOF.

FWIW, Gibson is 117 offensive yards from a $500K bonus if he hits 800 yards from scrimmage. Possible they feed versus the Bills' leaky run defense that has shown major lapses against RBs in the passing game.

Austin Hooper hit the first leg of his contract incentives last week as he went over 40 receptions on the season for a $125K bonus. With four more catches to reach 45 receptions on the season, he can earn another $125K bonus. Hooper had five targets, catching four passes for 55 yards with a long reception of 26 yards two weeks ago versus the Bills.

According to Next Gen Stats, Hooper leads the Patriots with +90 receiving yards over expected and +58 yards after the catch over expected this season.

Hooper has been successful down the seams, recording +114 receiving yards over expected (2nd-most among TEs) and 10.5 yards per target (6th-most among TEs, min 15 such targets).

Mack Hollins needs two receptions for $50K and 72 receiving yards for $200K. James Cook is 19 rushing yards away from his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing campaign.

My Picks:

  • Over 36.5
  • Pats +2.5

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sides:

  • The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Saints' last nine games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in eight of their last 18 games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in their last five road games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 games as road underdogs (58%).
  • The Saints have scored first in six of their last nine games.
  • The Saints have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
  • The Saints are 5-8 ATS as home underdogs (9-17 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-10 straight up. Woof.
  • The Saints are 2-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Buccaneers have won 14 of their last 15 home games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last eight games following a win.
  • The Buccaneers have scored last in each of their last five games.
  • Tampa Bay is 8-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 12 games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last nine games following a loss.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 19 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 13-5 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have won seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Tampa is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
  • The underdogs have won nine of the last 23 Buccaneers’ games.
  • Tampa Bay is 4-3 ATS against the NFC South, with two losses against the Falcons.
  • In five of the Buccaneers’ last six games, the first score has been a Buccaneers Touchdown.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Saints’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Each of the Saints’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 11th in red zone defense, and the Saints rank 12th.
  • The Saints are 4-5 toward the over at home (under 46 points per game).
  • 10 of the Buccaneers’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 11-5 O/U this season (5-3 at home, averaging nearly 52 points per game).
  • The Buccaneers are scoring the 4th-most points per game in the NFL (28.5) and have the NFL’s 4th-best red zone touchdown percentage.
  • Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 44 points total at home since 2023 (6-10 record toward the over).

Overall:

Tampa Bay enters Week 18 in a "win and in" scenario. If they beat the Saints, they win the NFC South. It seems like a foregone conclusion, given the Buccaneers are two-touchdown favorites at home. The Saints haven't ruled out Alvin Kamara returning, but it seems unlikely he will play in a meaningless Week 18 contest. Derek Carr has already been ruled out.

It will be another Spencer Rattler start, and the rookie quarterback played halfway decent when these teams first played. Rattler led the New Orleans Saints' offense, who completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. Rattler had a 55% completion rate and a passer rating of 60.7.

Recall that this game was crazy in New Orleans. Tampa jumped out 17-0. Then they allowed 20 unanswered points with interceptions, penalties, and special teams miscues. Then it was all Buccaneers after that, with a final score of 51-27.

All in all, the Saints covering this spread comes down to whether the Buccaneers shoot themselves in the foot. With all the incentive talk going on about Mike Evans, I feel like we might see Baker Mayfield force some ill-advised throws that could result in some turnovers for the Saints. Mayfield leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays this season.

I was dead wrong about fading the Buccaneers last week, but typically, fading Mayfield as a heavy home favorite works out more often than not.

The Saints defense is not great, but they can generate pressure. According to Next Gen Stats, since Darren Rizzi became the interim HC in Week 10, the Saints have generated a 36.9% pressure rate, the 6th-highest in the league during that span.

I think we could get more craziness in this contest, so I like taking the underdogs on the road. I also lean on taking the game total over at 44.5 points. The Buccaneers covered this number by themselves the last time these teams played.

Props:

The Saints receiving game was dominated by Juwan Johnson, who led the team with 12 targets, catching six passes for 66 yards. Johnson also tied for the team-high in total routes run to go with his 34% Target share and 36% air yards share (91 air yards).

Foster Moreau followed with 47 yards and one touchdown on three receptions from 5 targets, including a long of 30 yards.

The receiving corps was led by Mike Evans, who caught eight passes on nine targets (28% Target share) for 97 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 34 yards and 95 air yards.

He needs just 85 yards in Week 18 to record his 11th-straight 1,000-yard season. Give me those OVERS. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in six straight games.

No more Marshon Lattimore or hamstring injury (fingers crossed) to stop Evans this time around from going off versus the Saints.

But bet responsibly with the Evans numbers. Because they have been hammered toward the over.

The opening line was 91.5 yards. It's up to 102.5 receiving yards at some books. The last thing you want is for Evans to hit his incentives but fall short of his bloated props.

His contract has an escalator that will increase his base salary by $3M next year if he hits 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. He currently had 65 catches for 915 yards and 11 TDs.

I think you might be better off parlaying his receptions and yardage props based on his incentives.

It's been four straight strong games for Jalen McMillan. 19% Target share, 6 TDs, and 60 receiving yards per game. 19 catches for 242 yards and 6 TDS. Four straight overs with at least 51 receiving yards.

Baker Mayfield's passing yards prop has not really moved much, so I like the value of going over 250.5 yards. Four straight overs and in five of the last six games. He threw for 325 passing yards the last time he faced the Saints. Mayfield also has a bunch of incentives in his contract related to efficiency stats, so he will likely want to throw at a strong clip and pad his numbers in some capacity, particularly in the red zone. Mayfield has multiple passing TDs in four straight games.

My Picks:

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last five games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in their last seven home games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games.
  • The Titans are 6-10 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 15 games at Nissan Stadium.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites. They are 3-8 ATS as home favorites (28%).
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 17 of their last 20 games.
  • The Titans have lost 17 of their last 20 road games.
  • As road underdogs, the Titans are 8-13-1 ATS.
  • The Texans have won each of their last 10 road games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
  • Houston is 10-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (67%) and 3-6-1 ATS as home favorites.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 17 games and are 6-10 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as favorites (8-13 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Thirteen of their last 18 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Houston is just 16-17 against the spread over its last 33 games.
  • Houston is 4-4 as road favorites. 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
  • The Texans have won seven of their last 10 home games.
  • The Texans have scored first in nine of their last 11 games.
  • They are 9-21-1 ATS as underdogs, while 6-8 ATS (40%) as home underdogs ATS.
  • The Texans have won the first half in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • In four of the Texans’ last eight games, the first score has been a Texans Touchdown.

Totals:

  • The Titans are 18-14-1 toward the under in their last 31 games.
  • Four of the Titans' last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tennessee is 2-4-1 O/U at home this season, averaging 39.2 points per game.
  • Twelve of the Titans’ last 14 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Titans' last eight road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Titans have scored first in each of their last four home games.
  • Houston is 5-11 O/U this season. 11 of the Texans’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 1-7 O/U at home (Under 43 points per game).
  • According to DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Texans’ last nine games as home favorites have all ended UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have gone under in 22 of their last 35 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Seven of the Texans’ last 11 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Titans’ last eight home games against the Texans have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

What is the most profitable team to bet against this season? You'd be wrong (at least technically) if you said the New York Jets. The worst team ATS this season has been the Titans at 2-14.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Give me all the Texans underdog money I can get. Even as bad as the Texans are at covering the spread, the Titans are worse. This is a great spot for Houston to build momentum heading into the postseason after their poor Christmas showing.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans have played well against AFC South teams. They are 7-3 all-time versus the division, 11-10 in all other games.

The Texans have covered the spread in their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.

Houston is 10-6-1 ATS as a road underdog (63%).

The sportsbooks are giving us an early 2025 gift listing the Texans as underdogs on the road.

There's some ambiguity about the Texans' motivation with nothing to play for, but the line movement from Texans +4.5 to +1.5 suggests we will see more of the Texans starters after an abysmal showing on Christmas. Stroud also talked about how winning double-digit games was important to them earlier this week.

The Titans are also terrible, and their motivation should also be in question. Bill Callahan said both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis will play in Week 18. Good grief.

I get "why" the Titans are favored, especially after they covered in Houston back in Week 12.

But the Texans so desperately need to end the season on a high note offensively if they hope to stand any sort of a chance in the postseason. Also, newly signed WR Diontae Johnson is expected to make his Texans debut.

And if you don't want to sweat the second-half starter situation with Houston, take the Texans on the first-half spread (+0.5).

As for the total, the under is the obvious play, but the value has been nuked with the number at 36.5 points. Even so, it would be the play to make even based on the overwhelming under trends. You can also tease it up with Texans +7.5/under 42.5, etc.

Props:

Dalton Schultz has 33-plus receiving yards in four of his last seven games.

In the rushing game, Tyjae Spears was the workhorse, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries, averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry. However, he left the game with an injury, and he will not play in Week 18. Tony Pollard might be back in the bell cow chair after missing Week 17.

Pollard's contract is filled with contract incentives that he will be itching to hit for what has been a lost season in his first season with the Titans.

He is 83 rushing yards away from 1,100 ($250K bonus) and two TDs away from another $200K.

When these teams first played, Pollard dominated the ground game with 24 carries for 119 yards and a red-zone touchdown, averaging 5 yards per carry with a long run of 27 yards.

The Titans’ receiving corps saw a balanced effort in Week 17. Calvin Ridley commanded six targets (20% Target share and 86 air yards), recording five catches for 84 yards, but failed to find the end zone. He contributed 50% of the air yards share and 19% of the Target share.

Chig Okonkwo, with nine targets, caught five passes for 42 yards. He contributed 22% of the Target share and saw one red-zone target. He remained Mason Rudolph's top target, as he has been for the last three weeks. As a result, he has gone over his receiving yards prop in each of the last three games.

The Titans' defense has allowed an average of 100-plus yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs in their last six of seven games played. Joe Mixon is 107 rushing yards away from a $250K contract incentive. Mixon was held to 22 rushing yards the last time he played the Titans.

Mixon has rushed for under 60.5 yards in five of his last seven games.

According to Next Gen Stats, Nico Collins needs 31 receiving yards to become the 4th player in Texans franchise history to record 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons.

Calvin Ridley is 59 receiving yards away from 1,000 receiving yards. He has gone over 65.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and totaled 93 receiving yards the last time he faced the Texans.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Sides:

  • The 49ers are 9-10 ATS as road favorites in their last 19 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 18 of the 49ers' last 28 games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with winning records.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 16 home games.
  • San Francisco is 15-8 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
  • In 2024, they went 4-5 ATS at home. They covered against the Patriots/Jets/Cowboys/Bears but not against Arizona/Kansas City/Seattle/L.A. Rams/Lions
  • The 49ers have covered the spread four times in their last 16 home games.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games following a win.
  • The 49ers have won the first quarter in each of their last eight home games.
  • In each of the Cardinals' last five games as home favorites, the first score has been a Cardinals touchdown.
  • In each of the Cardinals’ last six games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 18 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Cardinals had lost each of their last 12 games following a win before Week 8.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Arizona didn't have back-to-back wins in 46 games, with their last winning streak coming in Weeks 11-13 in 2021. A new streak has begun, with them winning their last four games. They have dropped three games in a row (two to the Seahawks). And that's despite them trailing in all contests to start the games (except their last two losses when they opened with leads). They lost in Week 16 and Week 17 after winning in Week 15.
  • The Cardinals have scored first in six of their last eight games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last 13 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last eight games after coming off overtime.

Totals:

  • Nine of the 49ers’ last 10 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the 49ers' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 5-4 toward the over at home, averaging 43.5 points per game.
  • Seven of the 49ers' last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals’ last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line
  • (4-4 O/U) this season at home, averaging 43 points per game.
  • Five of the Cardinals’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Cardinals’ last 14 Sunday home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine on the road since the start of 2023 (5-10-1).
  • However, this season has mostly been a different story. The Cardinals' road games have totaled 52, 57, 47, 55 and 66 points. However, three of the last five road games have been unders.
  • They are "only" 3-4-1 toward the over on the road, but four points are the difference between a 6-2 record toward the over.

Overall:

The movement in this game spread has been drastic. The 49ers were favored on the road before Monday night's game against the Lions in Week 17. But with Brock Purdy out due to an elbow injury, the lines have now flipped heavily in favor of the Red Birds by 4.5 points at home.

The 49ers have lost six of their last seven games, and they seem more than ready to close the curtains on a disastrous 2024 season. Joshua Dobbs will start in Week 18 in a revenge game against the Arizona Cardinals, who he started for last season until Kyler Murray returned from his ACL injury.

Dobbs was a fire starter last season, playing well above expectations early on in both his stints with the Cardinals/Vikings. But the good times never lasted, with him flaming out on both teams in the end.

It remains to be seen how he will play in this solo start in Week 18, but he has spent the entire offseason in the 49ers system. He's a plucky backup QB and possesses strong weapons in the 49ers offense.

Still, you have to imagine the Cardinals’ defense knows the weaknesses with Dobbs. The Cardinals' pass defense has allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in nine straight games.

And despite all of Arizona's turmoil, the trends are strong for the home team ATS, whereas the 49ers have been bad as underdogs-which only happens when they have backup quarterbacks playing. They are 1-3 ATS as a road underdog in their last four and 1-5 ATS as underdogs overall (0-5 straight up as an underdog).

The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.

The 49ers don't beat good teams, and the Cardinals have been a better team this season. Let's wrap up the season by fading the 49ers.

As for the total, I took the under on this game at 46.5 before the Purdy injury on Monday (plug for following me on the BettingPros App). The point total is now down to 42.5, so I think it's a complete stay-away for me. Two mobile QBs against defensive players making potential "business decisions" doesn't suggest this game will be a slog fest. The trends also lean toward the over, with the new total at 42.5 points.

Props:

Kyler Murray has recorded 49+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances against the 49ers. Murray has also scored at least one touchdown in three of the Cardinals’ last five home games against teams with a losing record.

Murray is 50 rushing yards away, plus one rushing TD from a $750K salary escalator. Earlier this season, he had a 50-yard rush and a rushing TD versus the 49ers. If Murray is going to get up for anything that is non-related to Call of Duty, it’s money.

George Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one and 45-plus in 12 straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. He has gone over 54.5 yards in 11 of his last 13 games. Kittle has over 66.5 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.

Jauan Jennings also had an impactful game, catching seven passes for 67 yards in Week 17, and his 100 air yards were the second-highest on the team. He also had a 29% Target share on 10 targets (one in the end zone).

Jennings is well within striking distance of hitting his first-ever 1,000-yard campaign, and you better believe his former college teammate, Joshua Dobbs, will try to get him there. I think we see a ton of schemed looks for Jennings to get him over 1K receiving yards (77-plus receiving yards)

Deebo Samuel has gone over 22 receiving yards once in the last seven weeks. He is also two rushing TDs away from a $150K bonus. He has also been on the injury report this week with multiple injuries.

The Cardinals receiving corps was led by Trey McBride in Week 17, who caught 12 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, accounting for 36% of the Target share (16 total targets) and 28% of the air yards share. And he even left production on the table after a penalty negated a 34-yard catch.

McBride is 14 catches away from the single-season record for tight-end receptions. The caveat is that the Raiders play at the same time as the Cardinals. Currently, McBride is four receptions behind Brock Bowers for the all-time TE record. Might be a fun parlay to take both TEs and their alternate reception prop overs in a race to the top to break Zach Ertz's single-season record.

My Picks:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The Broncos have scored last in five of their last six games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last seven games following a loss.
  • The favorites have won each of the Broncos' last 12 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Broncos are 8-9 ATS on the road from 2023 (6-5 ATS last nine road games).
  • They are 9-9-1 as road underdogs (50%).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won seven of their last eight home games against NFC opponents.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 road games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 22 games.
  • The Chiefs have won 21 of their last 22 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 19 of the Chiefs' last 29 games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • Overall, KC is 9-10-1 as road favorites (45%).
  • The Chiefs have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 50% ATS at home in their last 26 home games
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in six of their last seven home games.

Totals:

  • Each of the Broncos' last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have the fourth-best red zone defense in the NFL (KC ranks 6th)
  • Nine of the Broncos' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Broncos' last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Broncos' last 28 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 5-2 O/U at home, averaging 44.8 points per game.
  • Fifteen of the Chiefs' last 23 games have gone UNDER the total points line (17 of the last 25).
  • Three of the Chiefs' last five road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
  • They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
  • The Broncos have a 25.5-point implied team total.
  • Nineteen of the Chiefs’ last 25 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I speak for everyone when I say the Broncos will win against the Chiefs on Sunday. But I am very hesitant to claim it will be by more than 11 points.

Even though the Broncos have been perfect ATS as favorites, boasting an 8-0 record. KC is starting Carson Wentz this week, as the team has nothing to play for. But Wentz knows his starts are limited, so he will want to play well in this game. And let's not pretend this is the Chiefs' first rodeo when it comes to resting their starters in meaningless games. They rested guys last Week 18 and won outright as 3.5-point road underdogs. In Wentz's Week 18 start last year for the Los Angeles Rams, he won outright as a four-point road underdog. Wentz rushed 17 times for 56 yards and one rushing TD. Don’t tell this man this game means nothing (Broncos fans look away).

According to Next Gen Stats, The Broncos defense has generated a 37.2% pressure rate this season, the 3rd-highest in the NFL. The Broncos have blitzed on 38.1% of dropbacks this season, the 3rd-highest blitz rate.

With a win in Week 18, the Chiefs will tie the 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0, for the most wins by a team in a regular season in NFL history (Next Gen Stats).

Eventually, Denver won't cover a game as a favorite, and a 11-point spread with all the pressure to win to make the playoffs seems like the most logical spot for them to fall short. They have only covered as double-digit favorites once this season, defeating the Panthers by 14 points as 11-point home favorites.

So often, these spreads favoring motivated teams versus non-motivated teams get blown way out of proportion. Again, you can't bench everyone.

Give me the Chiefs as underdogs +11.

As for the total, I will take the under at 40.5 points. The Broncos and their defense need to show up to help them lock up a playoff berth, and I don't think Wentz will do enough offensively to make this game a shootout. Denver has been on a heavy streak of overs, so I'd imagine this is a spot where we see some regression to the mean with KC resting their key offensive starters.

These teams combined for 30 points in their first meeting.

Props:

Bo Nix himself contributed 31 rushing yards on seven attempts in Week 17, while Audric Estime added 24 yards on nine carries, though he struggled with a low 2.7 yards per carry average on a 30% snap rate. Although the rookie 5th-rounder did lead the Broncos in carries in the first half.

The rookie QB tends to run more when he is an underdog (7 of 9) toward the over in his rushing props. As heavy home favorites versus the Chiefs B-team, I am going way under his rushing prop this week.

Nix rushed for -5 yards the last time he faced KC. Only twice this season has Nix rushed for more than 20.5 rushing yards as an underdog (5-2 toward the under).

Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos’ last three games against the Chiefs. Sutton played a key role last week, with five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. Sutton led the team with 29% of the Target share and a whopping 49% air yards share (110).

Sutton needs 82 yards to earn $500k. Per Spotrac, Sutton's incentives are the following:

  • 1,500 Receiving Yards or 10 Receiving TDs + Playoff Berth: $200,000
  • $500,000 each for 1,065 Receiving Yards (plus team improves on 2023 Total Points or Yards/Attempt)
  • $500,000 for 900 receiving yards + team ranks Top 10 in Yards/Pass Attempt

Sutton has at least 70 receiving yards in six of his last nine games. Take the OVER on 81.5 receiving yards this week. He would be LIVE for the over regardless of any player incentives. Sutton led the Broncos receiving group with six catches on nine targets for 70 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced the Chiefs.

Marquise Brown recorded four catches for 46 yards and helped keep the chains moving in Week 17. He had a 31% Target share (7 total targets while being targeted on 37% of his routes), totaling 67 air yards (9.6 aDOT). Brown only played 40% of the snaps as he looks to get up to speed in the offense.

I'd imagine he will not be one of the Chiefs starters that sits, given how much game action he has missed all season.

DeAndre Hopkins is one TD away from a $500K bonus, so it's possible he will get some red-zone looks in Week 18 to get him into the end zone. Andy Reid told reporters earlier this week that starters who can reach achievable streaks, milestones, and contract incentives will be taken into account for Sunday’s game.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Sides:

  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games.
  • The Jets have lost 11 of their 13 games.
  • The Jets are 0-6 as underdogs.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 21 of their last 27 games. They are 4-12 ATS this season.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games.
  • Their opponents have scored last in 10 of the Jets’ last 13 games.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
  • In the Jets' last four road games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine games against the Jets.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 16 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in their last six road games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 19 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 20 games.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Dolphins have scored last in each of their last seven games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine home games.
  • The Dolphins have won 24 of their last 31 home games.
  • The Dolphins have lost 13 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots and Colts, they came back from first-half deficits. They did not come back against the Packers on Thanksgiving Night or against the Texans in Week 15.
  • Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-10 overall since 2023. They are 5-11 as an underdog in their last 16 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs.

Totals:

  • Sixteen of the Jets' last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • At home, the Jets are 4-4 O/U.
  • The Jets are 5-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.
  • Five of the Jets’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Dolphins' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 6-2 toward the OVER at home this season (46 points per game).
  • The Dolphins have been 6-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa for the last nine weeks.
  • Without their starting QB, the Dolphins are 1-6 O/U.
  • Thirteen of the Dolphins' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Dolphins’ last six home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The football gods are doing whatever they can do to get sports betting money on the Jets this week. Aaron Rodgers' final game in the NFL? He only needs one passing TD to hit 500 regular season passing TDs.

The Dolphins plan to start Tyler Huntley after an impressive outing last week against the Cleveland Browns. Tua Tagovailoa is labeled very unlikely to play as he deals with a hip injury.

According to Next Gen Stats, Huntley was efficient against the Browns in Week 17 as he completed 22 of 26 passes for 225 yards and one touchdown, including a +16.6% completion percentage over expected, the highest mark by a Dolphins quarterback in a game this season.

While he did not attempt deep pass (20+ air yards), Huntley did complete all 6 of his intermediate passes (10-19 air yards) for 93 yards.

The Dolphins have gone from 2.5-point favorites to 1.5 point underdogs. Miami has all the motivation to win this game, but they know they’re long shots to make the postseason unless the Broncos lose to the Chiefs.

We know that the Dolphins beat bad teams, as they did so last week. But the Cleveland Browns are definitely a special type of bad, given their status as 20.5-point underdogs in Week 18.

Regardless, Miami has covered the spread in 16 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. But the weather is projected to be cold and snowy in New York come Sunday, which is concerning for those looking to back the Florida team.

If it wasn't the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets, this would be an easy spot to fade Miami with a backup QB on the road. I'd bet on New York if Tyrod Taylor was named the starter. Alas, Taylor won't sniff the starting lineup until Rodgers hits TD No. 500. It doesn't take a genius to figure out which WR he wants to catch (Davante Adams). Adams is also 25 yards shy of 1,000 receiving yards.

As underdogs this season, Gang Green is 0-6 ATS and straight up. You don’t need me to convince you that the Jets aren’t a team to bet on in 2024. But it's a new year, after all? 2025. Could it be the year of the Jets?

When these teams first played in Miami, the Jets had the 3.5-point cover in the bag had the game not entered into overtime.

Rodgers completed 27 of 39 passes for 339 yards and a touchdown against a depleted Miami Dolphins secondary.

Hate to say it, but I think the Jets have to be the play here at home. Admittedly, I'll feel better about it if we see the Jets become market favorites before Sunday's kickoff. Stay tuned.

As for the total, this game total is set at 38.5 points, down from 41.5 at the start of the week. It was a miracle that last week's Jets game went over the total, so I am willing to double-down in a bet against both these uninspiring AFC East squads.

Eight of the Dolphins' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Dolphins are 6-3 toward the OVER with Tua Tagovailoa the last nine weeks. But without their starting QB, the Dolphins are 1-6 O/U.

Props:

Tyreek Hill needs 61 receiving yards for his 7th season (and 5th consecutive season) with at least 1,000 receiving yards.

This would trail only Mike Evans (9), Torry Holt (8), and hall of famer Jerry Rice (8) for the most 1,000-yard seasons in a player's first nine career seasons (Next Gen Stats).

The Dolphins receiving group was led by Hill last week in Huntley's start versus the Browns, who received nine targets (38% Target share and 58% air yards share), catching nine passes for 105 yards, though he did not score a touchdown, with a long of 25 yards.

Hill went for 115 receiving yards the last time he faced the Jets earlier this season.

De'Von Achane has averaged the most expected yards per carry (4.9) but has averaged the 12th-fewest actual yards per carry (4.1) among 42 running backs with at least 100 carries this season.

According to Next Gen Stats, Achane has generated the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected (-144) after having generated the 2nd-most rushing yards over expected (+279) during his 2023 rookie season. The Jets defense has allowed the 8th-fewest expected yards per carry (3.9) and the 4th-fewest actual yards per carry (4.0) to opposing running backs this season.

Achane had 10 carries for 25 yards (2.5 yards per carry) in Week 17, while Jeff Wilson added three carries for 5 yards (1.7 yards per carry), including a red-zone attempt. Achane played 53% of the snaps and saw 10 touches in the first half. Achane added two catches for 13 yards on five targets. The Dolphins tried to get Achane going as a receiver, but three of his targets were wiped off because of penalties. Bizarrely, he also only saw two touches in the second half.

Raheem Mostert contributed six carries for 3 yards (0.5 yards per carry) on a 40% snap share.

Achane was held to 24 rushing yards in the first matchup versus the Jets. He has 30 or fewer rushing yards in four of the five games played this season without Tua Tagovailoa healthy this season.

Jalen Ramsey lined up against Garrett Wilson on 36 of his 42 routes (85.7%) and aligned in press on two-thirds (24 of 36) of those routes in Week 14 against the Jets.

Wilson totaled four receptions for 97 yards on six targets when Ramsey was the nearest defender in coverage, the most yards allowed by Ramsey to any receiver in a game since Week 5, 2017 (Antonio Brown, 100 yards).

The Dolphins have allowed the fewest yards before contact per carry (0.7), contacting rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 44.4% of carries (5th-highest) via Next Gen Stats.

Opposing running backs have recorded an average speed of 9.50 MPH at the line of scrimmage against the Dolphins’ defense, sixth-slowest in the NFL. Breece Hall has averaged a career-low 0.8 yards before contact per carry, ranking 29th of 42 running backs with 100 or more carries. Despite that, he has recorded the 2nd-fastest average speed at the line of scrimmage (11.02 MPH) among the same group of running backs.

The last 10 RBs that Miami has played have finished under their rushing yards projection.

Tyler Conklin is one reception away from a $250K bonus.

My Picks:

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 23 of the Rams’ last 27 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Rams’ last 12 games.
  • The Rams have won nine of their last 12 home games.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 16 games.
  • The Rams have won each of their last five road games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
  • Since 2023, the Rams are 5-11 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 4-5 as underdogs (5-4 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers (twice), Vikings, and Bills.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Rams have scored last in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
  • The road team has covered the spread in the last four games between the Seahawks and Rams.
  • In four of the Seahawks’ last five games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Seahawks have lost seven of their last 13 games.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last seven games.
  • The favorites have won 25 of the Seahawks’ last 31 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the Seahawks’ last 12 games.
  • The road team has won 10 of the Seahawks’ last 12 games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in six of the last seven games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites.
  • Seattle is 13-3 as a favorite in the last 16 games (16-7 over the last 22).
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is 10-17-1 ATS in their last 28 games played (9-14-1 over the last 22 games).
  • The Seahawks have scored last in their last nine road games.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle, as a road underdog, is 9-8 ATS (55%). As an away underdog on the Moneyline, they are 6-11.
  • Seattle is 4-7 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Rams' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Rams’ last 22 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 14-15 toward the O/U in their last 29 games.
  • Seven of the Rams’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or an injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only eight times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13. Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles. Against the Jets, they allowed nine points but over 320 yards.
  • Six of the Rams' last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seattle is 4-5 toward the over at home, averaging over 42 points per game.
  • Four of the Seahawks’ last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Seahawks’ last 16 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Seahawks’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the last seven games between the Seahawks and Rams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I don't think we need to overly think this matchup. The Rams are resting all their key guys with no incentive to put their players in harm's way with the NFC West in hand. Jimmy Garoppolo is going to start for Los Angeles.

Road teams in Rams games typically are getting the favorable side of the spread number. As a result, the road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Rams’ last 12 games. The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Seahawks’ last 12 games.

The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Seahawks and Rams.

Considering the Rams have no home field advantage or anything to play for, I think this 7-point spread is too short. It has widened since it opened at 2.5 points, and the line has moved in favor of Seattle after Sean McVay announced he would rest his starters -although this was always going to be the case given his track record of sitting guys during exhibition games.

Seattle is 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS on the back of improved defensive performances over the last month plus. Three of those wins have come against NFC West teams, with the other coming against the New York Jets/Chicago Bears. Insert the Rams B-Team: a bad team and an NFC West team. Bingo-Bango.

Seattle is tougher to trust against better teams, but it’s pretty clear that the Rams aren’t trying to win this Week 18 game in any capacity.

Favorites and road teams tend to prevail in Seahawks and Rams games, giving the edge to the Hawks on the road as they look for their tenth win of the season. Seattle has won 13 of their last 16 games as favorites.

Props:

Geno Smith is now under 34.5 pass attempts in eight of his last 10 games. But with no playoffs on the line in Week 18, we could see Smith sling the ball more than ever.

Smith has contract incentives for exceeding several passing statistics. He gets a whopping $2M if he passes for 186-plus yards, achieving a 69.5% completion rate, and with Seattle winning their 10th game of the year. It could be a fat payday for Geno if he plays his cards right in Week 18.

Take the over on Smith's 235.5 passing yards in Week 18.

In his first matchup versus the Rams, Smith had a mixed performance, completing 21 of 34 passes for an impressive 363 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw three interceptions.

Per Next Gen Stats, Smith-Njigba entered Week 17 with eight straight games with 65+ receiving yards. It was the longest active streak in the NFL and tied for the longest single-season streak in Seahawks history (with HOF Steve Largent).

Noah Fant had four catches for 43 yards (three in the first half) on five targets (23% Target share). Fant had a slightly negative average depth of target through his 43 yards after the catch, which helped propel the offense in Week 17.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2.

DK Metcalf is 61 receiving yards away from 1,000 receiving yards in the 2024 season.

My Picks:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The Raiders are 14-8-1 ATS at home. They are 5-5-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-8 straight up.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • The Raiders are 10-4 ATS as home favorites ATS (71%) and 10-3 on the Moneyline at home (77%).
  • The Raiders are 15-10-1 ATS over their last 26 games.
  • Opponents have scored last in five of the Raiders' last six games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in 11 of their last 20 games.
  • The Raiders have lost 10 of their last 12 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last 12 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
  • The Raiders have lost six of their last seven road games.
  • In 10 of the Raiders’ last 12 games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • Their opponents have scored first in each of the Raiders’ last seven home games.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.
  • The Chargers have scored first in their last 11 games as road favorites.
  • Their opponents have scored last in the Chargers' last seven road games.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Chargers have lost eight of their last nine home games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Chargers are 11-5 ATS this season.
  • The favorites have covered the spread in 13 of the Chargers’ last 16 games.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 15 points in nine of their last 12 games.
  • The Chargers have scored first in six of their last eight road games.
  • The Chargers have won each of their last nine home games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Chargers have been the first to 10 points in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Chargers have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • The Raiders are 4-3 toward the over at home, with games averaging under 42 points per game.
  • Each of the Raiders’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fifteen of the Raiders’ last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 19-13 toward the under.
  • Six of the Raiders' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Raiders' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Raiders’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Chargers' last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Chargers' last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twenty-one of the Chargers' last 31 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Chargers' last 18 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 9-7 toward the under this season.

Overall:

Expect a lot of movement to come on this game based on the results of Steelers-Bengals. Jim Harbaugh was non-committal about his team playing their starters earlier in the week. Given their success is on the shoulders of a healthy Justin Herbert, they could be tempted to keep him out of harm's way.

Conversely, LV might want to finish the season on a high note with the potential for a three-game win streak.

Aidan O’Connell is underrated, which is reflected in this record. The former Purdue signal-caller is now 7-9 as a starter and 11-4-1 ATS. The Raiders team plays hard for Antonio Pierce, and I’m sure they would love to end their season on a high note, winning over a divisional opponent in their last home game.

Props:

In the rushing game, J.K. Dobbins led the way with 76 yards on 19 carries, averaging 4.0 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown. He resumed his RB1 duties even in a blowout, playing 53% of the snaps.

According to Next Gen Stats, Dobbins generated 69 of his yards after contact aided by a career-high nine forced missed tackles, and a 47.4% missed tackles forced rate. The Raiders’ defense has converted on only 55.2% of their first tackle opportunities this season, the 6th lowest rate in the NFL.

Dobbins can get an additional $150K each if he reaches thresholds of 900 and 1,050 rushing yards. He is sitting at 842 rushing yards entering Week 18, meaning he needs 58 yards to hit 900.

The Las Vegas Raiders relied on a strong running game led by Ameer Abdullah, who rushed 20 times for 115 yards (5.8 yards per carry) but did not find the end zone (although he scored and the play was overturned upon review). Abdullah led the backfield with a 62% snap share and the first half with 11 carries for 71 yards.

Alexander Mattison added 32 yards on 10 carries (3.2 yards per carry), while Chris Collier contributed 6 yards on three attempts. Mattison played 31% of the snaps.

Abdullah also absorbed all the red-zone work, with six red-zone touches.

However, Abdullah RB1 szn will be short-lived as he got hurt in the fourth quarter. He is out for this upcoming game.

Mattison will start in his place, and we could see a potential boom spot for him as a receiver. Aidan O'Connell has peppered his RBs with targets in the last two weeks (10 targets per game). Mattison is eight catches away from a $125K bonus.

Brock Bowers (108) is nine catches away from breaking the single-season TE receptions record held by Zack Ertz (116).

Jakobi Meyers is 96 receiving yards away from his first 1,000-yard campaign.

My Picks:

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