NFL Week 18 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
The final week of the NFL regular season is here, and there are still three playoff spots up for grabs. Additionally, seeding, including who will get the first-round bye in both the AFC and NFC, will be finalized during Week 18. With so many teams playing for nothing and others in desperate need of a win, Week 18 may be tricky to navigate from a betting perspective.
Here is a look at some early Week 18 lines and where you should expect them to move.
NFL Week 18 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday Night Football features a win-and-in matchup between the Titans and the Jaguars. The winner of the matchup will be crowned the AFC South champion and host a playoff game next weekend.
The Jaguars are huge favorites right now, as they have won four games in a row while the Titans have lost six consecutive. Though the Titans’ offense was far from convincing against the Dallas Cowboys, Josh Dobbs was competent under center, and Tennessee will get a big boost with Derrick Henry back in the lineup this week.
Yet, the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in football, and they have covered the spread in four straight games. Look for bettors to support them and push this line past the key number.
Current Line: Jaguars -6.5
Predicted Final Line: Jaguars -7.5
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Two teams that were left for dead early in the season now have a chance to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s seventh seed. For the Packers, it’s straightforward. If they win, they’re in. The Lions need to win, and the Seattle Seahawks to lose.
The Lions have been a cover machine this season, winning against the spread in 11 of their 16 games. They have covered four of their last five games and have won six of eight. But the Packers have won four in a row, and Aaron Rodgers has a chance to silence his critics by beating a division opponent he has owned throughout his career. These might not be the same-old Lions, but the Packers should see a lot of support as kickoff approaches.
Current Line: Packers -4.5
Predicted Final Line: Packers -6
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have lost five games in a row, yet they could still get into the playoffs if they beat the Jets this week. Yet, even though the Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention and the Dolphins are at home, the Dolphins are favored by just 2.5 points.
Teddy Bridgewater will likely be unable to play in this one, so the question becomes whether or not Tua Tagovailoa can suit up. Considering he has suffered a few concussions this season, the Dolphins may be feeling pressure to hold him out. If they sideline him, their offense will struggle, which is not good considering how bad their defense has been of late.
Robert Saleh and his team may be out of the postseason, but they’re not going to roll over with the chance to end their division-rivals season.
Current Line: Dolphins -2.5
Predicted Final Line: Dolphins -2
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
If the Seahawks and Lions win, then Seattle will make the playoffs in one of the most shocking runs in recent memory. Yet, the Seahawks’ final game is far from a guarantee, even though they’re taking on a 5-11 Los Angeles Rams team.
The Rams almost beat the Seahawks earlier this season with John Wolford under center. The offense has looked moderately better under Baker Mayfield, especially with Cam Akers taking over the running game.
The Rams are just 1-6 on the road this season, so the Seahawks have a clear advantage. However, this line seems a bit fishy since the Seahawks have everything to play for and the Rams don’t. Perhaps, the Seahawks just aren’t seven points better than the Rams, even though they should win this game.
Current Line: Seahawks -6.5
Predicted Final Line: Seahawks -6
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Has any coach in the NFL been more impressive than Mike Tomlin this season? The Steelers started the season 2-6 and had no choice but to trust in Kenny Pickette as their quarterback. Since Week 10, they have gone 6-2, and they could get into the playoffs if they win and they get help from the Bills and Jets.
The Browns finally looked like a complete offensive unit against the Commanders in Week 17, yet they still haven’t been a very impressive team since Deshaun Watson took over. After what the Steelers did in Baltimore on Sunday night and the fact that they have won five of six, expect this line to grow larger than the key number ahead of kickoff.
Current Line: Steelers -3
Predicted Final Line: Steelers -3.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
The Cowboys can still win the NFC East and get the number one seed in the conference. They will need some help, but in order to achieve any of this, they will need to first win their game against the Commanders.
The Commanders were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17 and lost three games in a row. The Cowboys have been far from impressive over the last few weeks, but they are much better than Washington right now and simply have too much to play for. Expect the Cowboys to see a lot of action as kickoff draws closer.
Current Line: Cowboys -4
Predicted Final Line: Cowboys -5
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.