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NFL Week 18 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

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Here is an early look at the NFL Week 18 odds and trends:

NFL Week 18 Early Odds & Trends

Steelers @ Ravens – Saturday, January 6 – 4:30PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – PIT -3.5; O/U 36.5

Steelers trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games vs Baltimore: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 11-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-6-1 to the Under
  • Previous 25 games following a win: 11-13-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a road favorite: 24-6 to the Under
  • Mike Tomlin as a favorite (Career): 85-96-2 ATS

Ravens trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-2-1 ATS
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 8-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 23-5-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games following a win: 13-16-1 ATS
  • John Harbaugh as an underdog (Career): 46-30-3 ATS

Best bet: BAL +3.5

Mike Tomlin has made his name as a motivator in underdog spots when nobody believes in the Steelers, not as decisive favorites when everyone thinks that they should win. Tyler Huntley has plenty of experience at quarterback, John Harbaugh is just as good as Mike Tomlin is as an underdog, and AFC North matchups are seemingly always decided between 1-3 points. Give me the points with the Ravens here.

Texans @ Colts – Saturday, January 6 – 8:15PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – HOU -1.5; O/U 47.5

Texans trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 14 games following a win: 5-9 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 11-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-11-2 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games: 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 9-19-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • DeMeco Ryans as a favorite (Career): 2-4 ATS

Colts trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Houston: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 home games: 8-2 to the Over
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 6-11 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 14-6 to the Over
  • Shane Steichen as an underdog (Career): 3-5 ATS

Best bet: Over 47.5

The winner of this game will be guaranteed a playoff spot, whether it comes as a division champion or as a wild card will depend on the result of the Jacksonville game. With the spread essentially at a coin flip I don’t necessarily have a lean to either side, but I do trust that Houston will be able to score points on this Colts defense, and the Colts offense has been able to match points with just about everyone they’ve played this season. I’ll take the over in this game.

Falcons @ Saints – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – NO -3.5; O/U 42

Falcons trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS; 9-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 road games: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games vs New Orleans: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Arthur Smith as an underdog (Career): 12-15-1 ATS

Saints trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 7-9-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 7-13 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 22 games following a win: 6-15-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 12-17-1 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 12-17-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Dennis Allen as a favorite (Career): 6-15-1 ATS

Best bet: ATL +3.5

Both teams remain in contention for the NFC South title, though that would require a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina. This play is simply a fade of Dennis Allen and Derek Carr, who have been absolutely terrible covering spreads as favorites in their careers. The Falcons are also a better bet as underdogs, and they already handled the Saints pretty easily earlier in the year. I’ll take the points with Atlanta and fade this Saints team coming off of a big road win.

Browns @ Bengals – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – CIN -6; O/U 38.5

Browns trends:

  • Previous 8 games with rest advantage: 2-6 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-2-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-6-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games vs Cincinnati: 6-14 ATS
  • Previous 24 games following a win: 9-14-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 12-17-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Over

Bengals trends:

  • Previous 8 games with rest disadvantage: 6-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 18 games following a win: 10-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 8-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 11-7-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 11-7-2 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 to the Over

Best bet: Over 38.5

While the Browns defense has been one of the best in the league in the friendly confines of Cleveland, the splits drastically change on the road. Bengals games also tend to go over in these spots, so I’ll trust that each team will be able to put up points despite the fact that some starters may be missing for this game.

Buccaneers @ Panthers – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – TB -5.5; O/U 37.5

Buccaneers trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a road favorite: 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games vs Carolina: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-12-1 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games following a loss: 6-13-1 ATS
  • Todd Bowles as a favorite (Career): 18-22-2 ATS

Panthers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as an underdog: 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 6-3-1 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 30 home games: 11-18-1 ATS; 20-10 to the Under
  • Previous 34 games following a loss: 11-21-2 ATS

Best bet: CAR +5.5

Can any NFC South team really be trusted this year? Especially as road favorites this big with Todd Bowles at head coach? I don’t think so. Give me Carolina plus the points in this game, and don’t be shocked at all if they play spoiler and ruin the Buccaneers season.

Jets @ Patriots – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – NE -2; O/U 30.5

Jets trends:

  • Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 1-7-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 5-12 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 30 road games: 10-19-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games following a loss: 13-17 ATS
  • Robert Saleh as an underdog (Career): 17-25 ATS

Patriots trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs NYJ: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 home games: 1-8-1 ATS
  • Previous 11 games with rest disadvantage: 7-4 ATS
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 8-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 5-14-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-7-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Bill Belichick as a favorite (Career): 152-107-8 ATS

Best bet: NE -2

As long as Bill Belichick remains the coach of the Patriots, I will take them in this spot against the Jets every single time. I don’t care who plays quarterback for either team, the Patriots and Belichick simply have the Jets number in this matchup.

Vikings @ Lions – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – DET -3; O/U 45

Vikings trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 6-1-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games vs Detroit: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 7-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 14-6 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-11 to the Over

Lions trends:

  • Previous 10 games with rest advantage: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 12-5 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 15-5 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS; 14-6 to the Over
  • Previous 25 games following a loss: 16-9 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 20-10 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
  • Dan Campbell as a favorite (Career): 12-8-1 ATS

Best bet: DET -3

I’m not so sure that the Lions will flat out rest all of their starters this week, as there’s still a slim chance that they can leapfrog Dallas for the No. 2 seed. Minnesota’s season is over, and Detroit plays much better at home than they do on the road, where they just recently covered in Minnesota. Give me the Lions while this remains a field goal spread.

Jaguars @ Titans – Sunday, January 7 – 1:00PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – JAC -5.5; O/U 39.5

Jaguars trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 10 games vs Tennessee: 4-6 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games following a win: 12-8 ATS

Titans trends:

  • Previous 20 games: 7-11-2 ATS; 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 home games: 15-5 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 12-7-1 ATS
  • Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 29-22-1 ATS

Best bet: TEN +5.5

Much like the Carolina game, I think that Jacksonville is very much on upset alert against a Titans team that would love nothing more than to spoil the Jags playoff hopes after the miserable season that they’ve had. Give me Mike Vrabel and the Titans as home underdogs one last time this season in a spot where everyone expects them to roll over and give up.

Cowboys @ Commanders – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – DAL -13; O/U 45.5

Cowboys trends:

  • Previous 12 games with rest advantage: 9-3 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 13-4 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 17-13 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 21-9 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 17-13 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 35 games following a win: 19-16 ATS
  • Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 109-74-4 ATS

Commanders trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Dallas: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 5-10-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 7-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 29 games following a loss: 11-16-2 ATS
  • Previous 30 home games: 10-18-2 ATS; 21-8-1 to the Under
  • Ron Rivera as an underdog (Career): 60-47-2 ATS

Best bet: WAS +13

Dallas needs to make sure that they win this game in order to lock up the NFC East, but they don’t need to win this game by 13 or more points. I expect somewhat of a vanilla gameplan, and I expect them to remove starters at the end of the game if they have this one in hand. The backdoor should be open for the Commanders, and I’ll take the points with them getting nearly two full touchdowns on the spread.

Chiefs @ Chargers – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – LAC -3; O/U 35.5

Chiefs trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 8-1-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-5-1 ATS; 13-6-1 to the Over
  • Previous 30 road games: 20-10 to the Over
  • Previous 39 games following a win: 17-21-1 ATS
  • Andy Reid as an underdog (Career): 48-36-2 ATS

Chargers trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-2-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 6-3-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 18-10-2 to the Under

Best bet: Under 35.5

Both Chiefs and Chargers games have trended to the under this year already, and this game will feature neither Patrick Mahomes nor Justin Herbert, among several other key offensive weapons. I don’t expect either team to have any sort of offensive success, and I think this total is still too high even though it’s barely north of five touchdowns. I like the under in this game.

Broncos @ Raiders – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – LV -2.5; O/U 38

Broncos trends:

  • Previous 18 games following a win: 7-11 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 14-6 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 12-17-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 20-10 to the Under

Raiders trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Denver: 9-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 home games: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 10 games as a home favorite: 8-2 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 10-7 ATS
  • Previous 25 games following a loss: 10-14-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 17-12-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 12-18 ATS
  • Antonio Pierce (Interim): 6-1-1 ATS

Best bet: LV -2.5

I really like what I’ve seen out of this Raiders team since Antonio Pierce took over and I could say the exact opposite about the Broncos, whose head coach is playing the blame game and throwing everyone else under the bus but himself. I think Las Vegas makes a statement in their last home game of the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this game by double digits.

Rams @ 49ers – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – SF -3.5; O/U 42.5

Rams trends:

  • Previous 10 games as road underdogs: 3-6-1 ATS; 6-3-1 to the Over
  • Previous 19 divisional games: 11-8 ATS
  • Previous 20 games vs San Francisco: 6-14 ATS
  • Previous 28 games following a win: 12-16 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 12-16-2 ATS

49ers trends:

  • Previous 19 divisional games: 13-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 home games: 14-6 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 19-11 ATS; 17-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 19-11 ATS
  • Previous 38 games following a win: 24-14 ATS

Best bet: Under 42.5

I’m not yet exactly sure what we’ll see in terms of active players for both teams, as the 49ers have locked up the No. 1 seed and the Rams are locked into a wildcard spot. San Francisco has dealt with key injuries this season and the Rams lack any real depth behind their starting guys to afford an injury, which leads me to believe that both teams will not risk running their starters out for this game. If that’s the case, I do not expect many points to be scored by either side, so I’ll take the under.

Eagles @ Giants – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – PHI -5.5; O/U 41.5

Eagles trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs NYG: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 6-10-2 ATS
  • Previous 15 games following a loss: 5-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 7-11-2 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 11-18-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Nick Sirianni (Career): 22-25-2 ATS

Giants trends:

  • Previous 20 home games: 12-7-1 ATS; 13-6-1 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 15-3-2 to the Under
  • Previous 29 games following a loss: 17-12 ATS
  • Previous 30 games: 18-11-1 ATS; 17-12-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 17-12-1 ATS; 19-10-1 to the Under
  • Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 17-9-1 ATS

Best bet: NYG +5.5

We just saw the Giants cover against the Eagles on the road in a game where Tommy DeVito was benched, and Tyrod Taylor has proven to be a far more competent quarterback over the course of his career. Philly is still getting too much respect in the market even after their home loss to the Cardinals, give me the Giants in this spot every single time.

Bears @ Packers – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – GB -3; O/U 44

Bears trends:

  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 15 games following a win: 5-10 ATS
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 5-12 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 12-17-1 ATS
  • Previous 30 road games: 11-19 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
  • Matt Eberflus as an underdog (Career): 12-14-1 ATS

Packers trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Chicago: 9-1 ATS
  • Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 17 divisional games: 10-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a favorite: 7-13 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 12-8 ATS
  • Previous 28 games following a win: 17-11 ATS
  • Previous 30 home games: 18-12 ATS
  • Matt LaFleur (Career): 47-35 ATS

Best bet: CHI +3

Whereas the Eagles are getting too much respect in the market, the opposite could be said about the Bears, who have legitimately been playing at a top-10 level since about the midway point in the season. Their defense has been among the best in the league and Justin Fields is making their front office think twice about what to do with the No. 1 overall pick. I like the Bears to keep this one close, even against a Packers team that has absolutely dominated this matchup in recent years.

Seahawks @ Cardinals – Sunday, January 7 – 4:25PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – SEA -2.5; O/U 48

Seahawks trends:

  • Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Under
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 8-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-11-2 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 25 games following a loss: 14-11 ATS
  • Previous 30 games as a favorite: 11-17-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
  • Pete Carroll as a favorite (Career): 64-67-6 ATS

Cardinals trends:

  • Previous 18 divisional games: 5-13 ATS
  • Previous 18 games following a win: 8-10 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 13-6-1 to the Over
  • Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 30 home games: 12-18 ATS; 20-9-1 to the Over
  • Previous 30 games as an underdog: 16-12-2 to the Over

Best bet: SEA -2.5

This line is an overreaction to the Cardinals beating an over-inflated Eagles team and the Seahawks losing to a Pittsburgh team that came out with their hair on fire in a must-win game. Seattle is not that bad and Arizona is not that good, and this line should be north of a field goal. I’ll take the value and lay the points with the Seahawks in a game that they need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Bills @ Dolphins – Sunday, January 7 – 8:20PM EST

Current Consensus Lines – BUF -3; O/U 50

Bills trends:

  • Previous 10 games vs Miami: 7-3 to the Over
  • Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Under
  • Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 13-6-1 to the Under
  • Previous 30 games: 12-17-1 ATS; 19-11 to the Under
  • Previous 35 games following a win: 15-19-1 ATS
  • Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 36-31-4 ATS

Dolphins trends:

  • Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 ATS
  • Previous 18 divisional games: 13-4-1 ATS
  • Previous 20 games: 13-7 ATS
  • Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 to the Over
  • Previous 30 home games: 21-9 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
  • Mike McDaniel as an underdog (Career): 5-7 ATS

Best bet: MIA +3

While Miami has really struggled against top-tier competition on the road, they have been much more competitive at home. Even if Mostert and Waddle miss this game, they still have plenty of playmakers and the Bills narrowly escaped yet another loss to the Patriots this past week. I think Miami keeps this game within a field goal, and I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see them pull off the upset to win the AFC East.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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