NFL Week 18 Early Picks & Predictions (2022)
Last week, I acknowledged adding the Giants at -3 and the Bears/Lions Over 48.5 for Week 17. The Giants are now sitting at -6 for Week 17, while the Bears and Lions’ total has reached 52. I also argued for the Titans at +5. I don’t want to talk about that one… At least I got two of three bets in the right direction.
Here are a few potential EV plays for Week 18 before Week 17 ends.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
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NFL Week 18 Early Picks & Predictions (2022)
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
The Detroit Lions will face the Chicago Bears this weekend and should be able to bounce back and earn a victory. On the other hand, the Packers will take on a 12-3 Minnesota team in a game they really need to win to give themselves a chance at the postseason.
Minnesota is the better team. They’re also playing for that one seed in the NFC. If the Packers lose to Minnesota and Detroit ends up defeating the Bears, the Lions probably won’t be +3.5 heading into the final regular season game against the Packers.
Adding that 0.5 to the three points is enough for me. Grab the Lions at +3.5 over the Packers in Week 18. Green Bay isn’t that good, despite that three-game winning streak. I’d argue that Detroit has been the better team throughout the year.
Bet: Lions +3.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. The offense has looked completely lost and should stay that way against an underrated Panthers defense. But if Tampa Bay can stifle the Panthers’ run game and keep the Panthers to a low score, Week 18’s game against the Falcons will have a lower total.
Atlanta is facing the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. That game should also be low scoring. Therefore, we’ll likely see a lower total in this Buccaneers/Falcons game once Week 18 comes around.
Take the Under 40 in a game between a young, inexperienced quarterback in Desmond Ridder and an aging quarterback in Tom Brady, who has been getting no protection lately.
Bet: Under 40 (-110)
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
What if the Panthers beat the Buccaneers on Sunday? Then what?
The Panthers could win Week 18 and make the postseason behind Sam Darnold.
A Carolina win over Tampa Bay isn’t out of the question. I project a low-scoring game that could come down to the final possession.
The Panthers are currently +3 against the Saints in Week 18. If the Panthers can clinch the NFC South with a win against the Saints, that line will likely adjust in favor of the Panthers.
Take those three points now before the Panthers shock the world.
Bet: Over Panthers +3 (-110)
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