NFL Week 18 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 18 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| SEA | ARI | 3 | 3 | 0 | 47.5 | 48 | 0.5 |
| PIT | BAL | 4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 37.5 | 35 | -2.5 |
| TB | CAR | 5.5 | 4.5 | -1 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0 |
| CLE | CIN | -5 | -7 | -2 | 38.5 | 37.5 | -1 |
| MIN | DET | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 45 | 45.5 | 0.5 |
| CHI | GB | -3 | -3 | 0 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| HOU | IND | -1 | 1 | 2 | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
| KC | LAC | -1.5 | -3.5 | -2 | 36 | 35 | -1 |
| DEN | LV | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 38 | 38 | 0 |
| BUF | MIA | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1 |
| NYJ | NE | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 31 | 30.5 | -0.5 |
| ATL | NO | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 41.5 | 42 | 0.5 |
| PHI | NYG | 5.5 | 4.5 | -1 | 41.5 | 42 | 0.5 |
| LAR | SF | -4.5 | -4 | 0.5 | 42.5 | 41 | -1.5 |
| JAX | TEN | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 39.5 | 41 | 1.5 |
| DAL | WAS | 13.5 | 13 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 46 | 0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 18 Spread Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: -5 ?' -7
Team motivation has impacted the majority of the lines for Week 18 and the Browns at Bengals matchup falls into that category. The Browns have locked up the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will be resting some of their players, including quarterback Joe Flacco. The Bengals have nothing to play for but have been competitive with quarterback Jake Browning starting in place of Joe Burrow. The line moving out to a full touchdown indicates that bettors believe the majority of Browns backups will be playing against most of the Bengals starters.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: -1 ?' +1
This matchup is one of the most exciting of Week 18. It is a win-and-you-are-in scenario for both teams and the spread has hovered around a pick ’em. These two teams are very different from the first matchup back in Week 2. In that game Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was on his way to a breakout performance, rushing for two touchdowns in the first half before sustaining a concussion on his second touchdown. Gardner Minshew filled in and the Colts were able to come away with a 31 – 20 win. On the other side, that was C.J. Stroud’s breakout NFL game, throwing for nearly 400 yards and two touchdowns. Regardless of who wins this game, these two teams should continue to be in meaningful games against each other for the foreseeable future.
NFL Week 18 Total Movement Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 37.5 ?' 35
The Steelers have a chance to make the playoffs and the Ravens are sitting quarterback Lamar Jackson after locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The removal of the dynamic playmakers on the Ravens side most likely is the reasoning for the drop in total. It remains to be seen how many of the defensive starters on the top ranked Ravens defense will play. Regardless, the Ravens still are a step up in class for quarterback Mason Rudolph, who has helped lead the Steelers offense to back to back 30+ point performances.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 39.5 ?' 41
The Jaguars need to win to get into the playoffs and lock up the division. They will likely welcome back starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence this week, which should help lead to more points in this game. The Jaguars defense got back on track against Carolina, but prior to that game they were allowing 29.5 ppg over their past four weeks. They should be able to play well against a Titans offense who hasn’t scored more than 17 points over their past three weeks. The Titans may be getting rookie quarterback Will Levis back from injury, but I don’t think that will have much impact on the total.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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